Rosenborg vs Stabaek – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Rosenborg (61%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Rosenborg face Stabaek.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Lerkendal Stadion plays host to Rosenborg versus Stabaek in Eliteserien, Regular Season - 24. Kick-off: Saturday 2 October 2021 at 01:00 UTC.
Current Form
Rosenborg's overall Eliteserien record this term: 7W 2D 1L from 10 games (2.30 PPG). Last five: W L W W W. They are averaging 2.30 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Rosenborg, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Rosenborg at Lerkendal Stadion this season: 7W 1D 2L from 10 home games — 2.20 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.60 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Stabaek (all games): 3W 2D 5L across 10 Eliteserien outings this term — 1.10 points per game. Last five: D L L W D. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.90. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Stabaek, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Stabaek's form when playing away from home: 2W 2D 6L across 10 road games this term (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 2.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Form favours the hosts. Rosenborg's 2.30 PPG return is 1.20 points per game ahead of Stabaek's 1.10 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 3 meetings: Rosenborg 2W, Stabaek 0W, 1D.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 4.3 goals per game across 3 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 30 May 2021, ended 4–2 with Rosenborg winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.3 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Rosenborg — key trading statistics (50 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 58% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 72% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
Stabaek — key trading statistics (50 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 84% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 58% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 76% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 42%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Rosenborg 60% versus Stabaek 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Rosenborg 68% | Stabaek 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Rosenborg 2.58 xG and Stabaek 1.42 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Rosenborg attack 1.269 / defence 0.903 | Stabaek attack 1.181 / defence 1.123. League average goals — home 1.811 / away 1.331. Rosenborg carry an above-average attack strength of 1.269 — their λ of 2.58 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 50 Rosenborg games / 50 Stabaek games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Rosenborg 61% | Draw 21% | Stabaek 18%. Fair-value odds: Rosenborg 1.64 | Draw 4.76 | Stabaek 5.56. The model has a clear lean to Rosenborg (61%) — a 43pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 76% | BTTS probability 72% | Total xG 4.00. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 76% — a total xG of 4.00 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 72% reflects that both xG figures (2.58 / 1.42) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Rosenborg at 61% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 21% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 4.00 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 76% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 3.8 goals per game and H2H averaging 4.3 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 72% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Rosenborg 50% | Stabaek 80% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Rosenborg vs Stabaek | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 24 | Venue: Lerkendal Stadion • Kick-off: Saturday 2 Oct 2021, 01:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Rosenborg 61% | Draw 21% | Stabaek 18% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 76% | BTTS 72% | xG Rosenborg 2.58 / Stabaek 1.42 • Poisson strength factors: Rosenborg attack 1.269 / def 0.903 | Stabaek attack 1.181 / def 1.123 | league avg home 1.811 / away 1.331 • Poisson stance: Rosenborg (61%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.58
Rosenborg xG
Expected Goals
1.42
Stabaek xG
72%
BTTS
92%
Over 1.5
76%
Over 2.5
57%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Rosenborg vs Stabaek kick off?
Rosenborg vs Stabaek kicked off at 01:00 on Saturday 2 October 2021 at Lerkendal Stadion.
Where is Rosenborg vs Stabaek being played?
The match is being played at Lerkendal Stadion.
What competition is Rosenborg vs Stabaek part of?
Rosenborg vs Stabaek is a Regular Season - 24 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Rosenborg vs Stabaek?
Our statistical model gives Rosenborg a 61% chance of winning, Stabaek a 18% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making Rosenborg the favourite.
Will both teams score in Rosenborg vs Stabaek?
Our model estimates a 72% probability that both Rosenborg and Stabaek will score (BTTS).
Will Rosenborg vs Stabaek have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 76%.
What is the head-to-head record between Rosenborg and Stabaek?
Record (3 meetings): Rosenborg 2W | Draws 1 | Stabaek 0W.
What form are Rosenborg and Stabaek in?
Rosenborg (all comps): 7W-2D-1L in 10 | 2.30 PPG | GF 2.30 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-L-W-W-W. Stabaek (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.90 | L5 D-L-L-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Rosenborg's attack at 1.27x the league average against Stabaek's defence at 1.12x — combine the two and it projects 2.58 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Stabaek's attack (1.18x) against Rosenborg's defence (0.90x) — and the away total comes out at 1.42.
These ratings are built from 50/50 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 2-1 carries the highest individual probability at 8.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (7.6%), 3-1 (7.4%). Together the top three scorelines make up 24% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Rosenborg Win
61%
1.64
21%
4.82
18%
5.50
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
8.7%
Home win
Most likely
3 – 1
7.4%
Home win
1 – 1
6.7%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.58
Rosenborg xG
Total xG
4.00
1.42
Stabaek xG
1.64
61%
Home win
4.82
21%
Draw
5.50
18%
Away win
Goals Markets
91%
Over 1.5
1.10
9%
Under 1.5
11.11
76%
Over 2.5
1.32
24%
Under 2.5
4.17
57%
Over 3.5
1.75
43%
Under 3.5
2.33
37%
Over 4.5
2.70
63%
Under 4.5
1.59
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
72%
BTTS Yes
1.40
28%
BTTS No
3.51
Clean Sheet
24%
4.14
8%
13.21
Win to Nil
15%
6.77
1%
72.66
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1.8 | 2.6 | 1.8 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 4.7 | 6.7 | 4.8 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.1 | 8.7 | 6.1 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 5.2 | 7.4 | 5.3 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 3.4 | 4.8 | 3.4 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 5 | 1.7 | 2.5 | 1.8 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Rosenborg vs Stabaek?
Our Poisson model rates 2-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 8.7%.
How many goals are Rosenborg and Stabaek expected to score?
The model projects 2.58 expected goals for Rosenborg and 1.42 for Stabaek, a combined total of 4.00.
How confident is the prediction model for Rosenborg vs Stabaek?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 61%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Rosenborg's recent record stands at 26W 11D 13L from 50 games, a 1.78 PPG return, with W-L-W-W-W in the last five. The sample for Rosenborg is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Stabaek, meanwhile, have gone 13W 17D 20L across 50 games — 1.12 PPG, with D-L-L-W-D in their last five. The sample for Stabaek is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Rosenborg by 0.66 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Stabaek heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Rosenborg have managed 17W 4D 4L from 25 games — 2.20 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.78 PPG overall — Rosenborg are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Stabaek's away record stands at 6W 8D 11L across 25 trips, a 1.04 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Rosenborg come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Rosenborg are averaging 1.86 goals scored and 1.22 conceded per game recently; Stabaek are on 1.34 scored and 1.72 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Rosenborg have seen both teams score in 60% of their recent games.
Last 50 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Rosenborg
Blended
Stabaek
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Rosenborg and Stabaek in coming into this match?
Rosenborg have gone 26W 11D 13L in their last 50 games (1.78 PPG), while Stabaek have gone 13W 17D 20L in their last 50 (1.12 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Rosenborg at home or Stabaek away?
Rosenborg's home record (2.20 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Rosenborg at home: 2.20 PPG; Stabaek away: 1.04 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 6 times since July 2020 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. It has been a while since the last meeting — 22 October 2023, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Rosenborg won 0-3 on 5 Jul 2020, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Rosenborg have gone 1W 2D 0L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Stabaek — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
3
Rosenborg
3
Draws
0
Stabaek
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Rosenborg and Stabaek?
From 6 meetings on record, Rosenborg have won 3, Stabaek have won 0, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Rosenborg and Stabaek last play each other?
They last met on 22 October 2023, when Rosenborg 1-1 Stabaek.
Who has won more matches between Rosenborg and Stabaek?
Rosenborg have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Rosenborg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 48% of the time.
Stabaek are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 84% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Rosenborg 60%, Stabaek 68% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 72% for Rosenborg and 76% for Stabaek. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 56% and 56% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Rosenborg keep a clean sheet in 36% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Rosenborg home games / Stabaek away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Rosenborg play Stabaek?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 60% of Rosenborg's games and 68% of Stabaek's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Rosenborg vs Stabaek usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 72% of Rosenborg's matches and 76% of Stabaek's.
Do Rosenborg and Stabaek tend to score early?
Rosenborg have had a goal before half-time in 76% of their recent matches, Stabaek in 84% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Rosenborg's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Rosenborg and Stabaek finished level at 0-0 at Lerkendal Stadion, Regular Season - 24, in the Eliteserien. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Rosenborg 2.58 xG and Stabaek 1.42 xG, a combined 4.00. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Rosenborg fell 2.6 short of their projected output. Stabaek landed 1.4 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Rosenborg attack 1.27 / defence 0.90 against Stabaek attack 1.18 / defence 1.12, drawn from 50/50 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Rosenborg 61% | Draw 21% | Stabaek 18%, with Rosenborg to win its most likely call at 61%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 21% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 76%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 92% and missed. Over 3.5 was 57% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 72% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 64% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Rosenborg 68%, Stabaek 60%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Rosenborg's trading profile (50 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not.
Stabaek's trading profile (50 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 28% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Rosenborg arrived the stronger side — 1.78 PPG against 1.12. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Rosenborg (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.40 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.08 average — tighter than their form line. Stabaek (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.48 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 2.08 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.