Rosenborg 4-1 Sandefjord – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Rosenborg at 66% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Rosenborg vs Sandefjord encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Rosenborg host Sandefjord at Lerkendal Stadion in Eliteserien, Regular Season - 23. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 24 October 2021 at 16:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Rosenborg — All Games: 7W 1D 2L from 10 Eliteserien outings this season, averaging 2.20 points per game. Last five: W W W L D. They are averaging 2.30 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Rosenborg, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Rosenborg at Lerkendal Stadion this season: 6W 2D 2L from 10 home games — 2.00 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.30 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Across all Eliteserien games this season, Sandefjord have recorded 2W 4D 4L from 10 outings — 1.00 PPG. Last five: W D L L D. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Sandefjord, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Sandefjord have gone 3W 1D 6L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 2.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
On current form, Rosenborg have the edge — a 1.20 PPG advantage (2.20 vs 1.00) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Rosenborg register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Sandefjord in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
In-Play Profile
Rosenborg in-play tendencies (52 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 58% of the time; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 76% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
Sandefjord in-play tendencies (52 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Rosenborg 60% versus Sandefjord 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Rosenborg 67% | Sandefjord 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Rosenborg 2.61 xG and Sandefjord 1.22 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Rosenborg attack 1.225 / defence 1.030 | Sandefjord attack 0.943 / defence 1.187. League average goals — home 1.795 / away 1.254. Data: 52 Rosenborg games / 52 Sandefjord games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Rosenborg 66% | Draw 20% | Sandefjord 14%. Fair-value odds: Rosenborg 1.52 | Draw 5.00 | Sandefjord 7.14. The model has a clear lean to Rosenborg (66%) — a 52pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 74% | BTTS probability 67% | Total xG 3.83. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 74% — a total xG of 3.83 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 67% reflects that both xG figures (2.61 / 1.22) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Rosenborg are the pick at 66% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 20% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 3.83 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 74% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.6 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 67%. Form rates corroborate: Rosenborg 60% | Sandefjord 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Rosenborg vs Sandefjord | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 23 | Venue: Lerkendal Stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 24 Oct 2021, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Rosenborg 66% | Draw 20% | Sandefjord 14% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 74% | BTTS 67% | xG Rosenborg 2.61 / Sandefjord 1.22 • Poisson strength factors: Rosenborg attack 1.225 / def 1.030 | Sandefjord attack 0.943 / def 1.187 | league avg home 1.795 / away 1.254 • Poisson stance: Rosenborg (66%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.61
Rosenborg xG
Expected Goals
1.22
Sandefjord xG
67%
BTTS
91%
Over 1.5
74%
Over 2.5
53%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Rosenborg vs Sandefjord kick off?
Rosenborg vs Sandefjord kicked off at 16:00 on Sunday 24 October 2021 at Lerkendal Stadion.
What was the final score in Rosenborg vs Sandefjord?
Rosenborg 4 - 1 Sandefjord.
Where is Rosenborg vs Sandefjord being played?
The match is being played at Lerkendal Stadion.
What competition is Rosenborg vs Sandefjord part of?
Rosenborg vs Sandefjord is a Regular Season - 23 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Rosenborg vs Sandefjord?
Our statistical model gives Rosenborg a 66% chance of winning, Sandefjord a 14% chance, and a 20% chance of a draw — making Rosenborg the favourite.
Will both teams score in Rosenborg vs Sandefjord?
Our model estimates a 67% probability that both Rosenborg and Sandefjord will score (BTTS).
Will Rosenborg vs Sandefjord have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 74%.
What is the head-to-head record between Rosenborg and Sandefjord?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Rosenborg and Sandefjord in?
Rosenborg (all comps): 7W-1D-2L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 2.30 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-W-W-L-D. Sandefjord (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.80 | L5 W-D-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Rosenborg's attacking strength (1.23x league average) is weighed against Sandefjord's defensive record (1.19x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.61. The same calculation in reverse, Sandefjord's attack versus Rosenborg's defence, projects 1.22 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 52/52 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 2-1, at 9.0%. Close behind: 3-1 (7.9%), 1-1 (7.8%). Together the top three scorelines make up 25% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Rosenborg Win
66%
1.52
20%
5.05
14%
6.96
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.0%
Home win
Most likely
3 – 1
7.9%
Home win
2 – 0
7.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.61
Rosenborg xG
Total xG
3.83
1.22
Sandefjord xG
1.52
66%
Home win
5.05
20%
Draw
6.96
14%
Away win
Goals Markets
89%
Over 1.5
1.12
11%
Under 1.5
9.09
74%
Over 2.5
1.35
26%
Under 2.5
3.85
53%
Over 3.5
1.89
47%
Under 3.5
2.13
34%
Over 4.5
2.94
66%
Under 4.5
1.52
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
67%
BTTS Yes
1.50
33%
BTTS No
3.00
Clean Sheet
30%
3.38
7%
13.60
Win to Nil
19%
5.14
1%
94.64
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.2 | 2.6 | 1.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 5.7 | 6.9 | 4.2 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.4 | 9.0 | 5.5 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 6.4 | 7.9 | 4.8 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 4.2 | 5.1 | 3.1 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 2.2 | 2.7 | 1.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Rosenborg vs Sandefjord?
Our Poisson model rates 2-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.0%.
How many goals are Rosenborg and Sandefjord expected to score?
The model projects 2.61 expected goals for Rosenborg and 1.22 for Sandefjord, a combined total of 3.83.
How confident is the prediction model for Rosenborg vs Sandefjord?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 66%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Rosenborg's recent record stands at 26W 12D 14L from 52 games, a 1.73 PPG return, with W-W-W-L-D in the last five. The sample for Rosenborg is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Sandefjord, meanwhile, have gone 16W 13D 23L across 52 games — 1.17 PPG, with W-D-L-L-D in their last five. The sample for Sandefjord is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Rosenborg by 0.56 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Sandefjord heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Rosenborg have managed 17W 4D 4L from 25 games — 2.20 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.73 PPG overall — Rosenborg are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Sandefjord's away record stands at 9W 2D 14L across 25 trips, a 1.16 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Rosenborg come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Rosenborg are averaging 1.83 goals scored and 1.23 conceded per game recently; Sandefjord are on 1.12 scored and 1.54 conceded.
Last 52 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Rosenborg
Blended
Sandefjord
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Rosenborg and Sandefjord in coming into this match?
Rosenborg have gone 26W 12D 14L in their last 52 games (1.73 PPG), while Sandefjord have gone 16W 13D 23L in their last 52 (1.17 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Rosenborg at home or Sandefjord away?
Rosenborg's home record (2.20 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Rosenborg at home: 2.20 PPG; Sandefjord away: 1.16 PPG.
Have Rosenborg or Sandefjord been keeping clean sheets recently?
Rosenborg have kept a clean sheet in 27% of their recent games, Sandefjord in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Rosenborg and Sandefjord runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. They last met on 18 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 24 Oct 2021, when Rosenborg won 4-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Rosenborg's record when hosting Sandefjord specifically: 3W 2D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Rosenborg
3
Draws
2
Sandefjord
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Rosenborg and Sandefjord?
From 10 meetings on record, Rosenborg have won 5, Sandefjord have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Rosenborg and Sandefjord last play each other?
They last met on 18 April 2026, when Sandefjord 0-0 Rosenborg.
Who has won more matches between Rosenborg and Sandefjord?
Rosenborg have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Rosenborg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 48% of the time.
Sandefjord are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 16% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Rosenborg 64%, Sandefjord 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 76% for Rosenborg and 60% for Sandefjord. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 60% and 40% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Rosenborg keep a clean sheet in 32% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Rosenborg home games / Sandefjord away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Rosenborg play Sandefjord?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 64% of Rosenborg's games and 56% of Sandefjord's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Rosenborg vs Sandefjord usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 76% of Rosenborg's matches and 60% of Sandefjord's.
Do Rosenborg and Sandefjord tend to score early?
Rosenborg have had a goal before half-time in 80% of their recent matches, Sandefjord in 76% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Rosenborg run riot with a 4-1 hammering of Sandefjord.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Rosenborg beat Sandefjord 4-1 at Lerkendal Stadion, Regular Season - 23, in the Eliteserien. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Rosenborg 2.61 xG and Sandefjord 1.22 xG, a combined 3.83. The scoreboard read 4-1 for 5 actual goals. Rosenborg beat their projection by 1.4 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Rosenborg attack 1.23 / defence 1.03 against Sandefjord attack 0.94 / defence 1.19, drawn from 52/52 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Rosenborg 66% | Draw 20% | Sandefjord 14%, with Rosenborg to win its most likely call at 66%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 74%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 91% and landed. Over 3.5 was 53% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 67% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 61% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Rosenborg 67%, Sandefjord 54%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Rosenborg's trading profile (52 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
Sandefjord's trading profile (52 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Rosenborg arrived the stronger side — 1.73 PPG against 1.17. Form held, and they took the win. Rosenborg (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 2.48 average — above their attacking norm. Sandefjord (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.84 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.