Rosenborg 3-1 Molde – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Rosenborg at 38%, yet other data sources diverge — this Rosenborg vs Molde fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Lerkendal Stadion plays host to Rosenborg versus Molde in Eliteserien, Regular Season - 27. Kick-off: Sunday 5 November 2023 at 16:00 UTC.
Current Form
Rosenborg's overall Eliteserien record this term: 4W 2D 4L from 10 games (1.40 PPG). Last five: D L L D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 2.00 conceded. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Rosenborg, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Rosenborg at Lerkendal Stadion this season: 5W 2D 3L from 10 home games — 1.70 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Molde have collected 1.50 PPG across 10 Eliteserien outings this season: 4W 3D 3L. Last five: D W L L L. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.50. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Molde, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Molde's form when playing away from home: 4W 3D 3L across 10 road games this term (1.50 PPG). They are averaging 1.90 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.40 for Rosenborg, 1.50 for Molde — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Rosenborg have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Molde in 70%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 4 meetings: Rosenborg 0W, Molde 2W, 2D.
The 4 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 16 Apr 2023, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Rosenborg — key trading statistics (56 games, 28 at home): they score before half-time in 89% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 45%.
Molde — key trading statistics (56 games, 28 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; they lead at the break 55% of the time; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 46%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Rosenborg 64% and Molde 59% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Rosenborg 71% | Molde 70%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Rosenborg 1.53 xG and Molde 1.51 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Rosenborg attack 0.911 / defence 0.918 | Molde attack 1.208 / defence 0.915. League average goals — home 1.837 / away 1.362. Molde have an above-average attack strength of 1.208 — the away xG of 1.51 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 56 Rosenborg games / 56 Molde games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Rosenborg 38% | Draw 24% | Molde 37%. Fair-value odds: Rosenborg 2.63 | Draw 4.17 | Molde 2.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 24% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 59% | BTTS probability 61% | Total xG 3.04. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 59% — the 3.04 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 61% reflects that both xG figures (1.53 / 1.51) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Rosenborg are the pick at 38% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 24% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Rosenborg if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 37% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.04 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 59% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.3 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 61% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Rosenborg 60% | Molde 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 37% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Rosenborg vs Molde | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 27 | Venue: Lerkendal Stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 5 Nov 2023, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Rosenborg 38% | Draw 24% | Molde 37% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 59% | BTTS 61% | xG Rosenborg 1.53 / Molde 1.51 • Poisson strength factors: Rosenborg attack 0.911 / def 0.918 | Molde attack 1.208 / def 0.915 | league avg home 1.837 / away 1.362 • Poisson stance: Rosenborg (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.53
Rosenborg xG
Expected Goals
1.51
Molde xG
61%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
59%
Over 2.5
36%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Rosenborg vs Molde kick off?
Rosenborg vs Molde kicked off at 16:00 on Sunday 5 November 2023 at Lerkendal Stadion.
What was the final score in Rosenborg vs Molde?
Rosenborg 3 - 1 Molde.
Where is Rosenborg vs Molde being played?
The match is being played at Lerkendal Stadion.
What competition is Rosenborg vs Molde part of?
Rosenborg vs Molde is a Regular Season - 27 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Rosenborg vs Molde?
Our statistical model gives Rosenborg a 38% chance of winning, Molde a 37% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Rosenborg the favourite.
Will both teams score in Rosenborg vs Molde?
Our model estimates a 61% probability that both Rosenborg and Molde will score (BTTS).
Will Rosenborg vs Molde have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 59%.
What is the head-to-head record between Rosenborg and Molde?
Record (4 meetings): Rosenborg 0W | Draws 2 | Molde 2W.
What form are Rosenborg and Molde in?
Rosenborg (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 2.00 | L5 D-L-L-D-W. Molde (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-W-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Rosenborg's attack at 0.91x the league average against Molde's defence at 0.92x — combine the two and it projects 1.53 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Molde's attack (1.21x) against Rosenborg's defence (0.92x) — and the away total comes out at 1.51.
These ratings are built from 56/56 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (8.5%), 1-2 (8.3%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Rosenborg Win
38%
2.60
24%
4.15
37%
2.67
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.0%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.5%
Home win
1 – 2
8.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.53
Rosenborg xG
Total xG
3.04
1.51
Molde xG
2.60
38%
Home win
4.15
24%
Draw
2.67
37%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
59%
Over 2.5
1.69
41%
Under 2.5
2.44
36%
Over 3.5
2.78
64%
Under 3.5
1.56
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
61%
BTTS Yes
1.64
39%
BTTS No
2.57
Clean Sheet
22%
4.53
22%
4.62
Win to Nil
8%
11.79
8%
12.33
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.8 | 7.2 | 5.4 | 2.7 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 7.3 | 11.0 | 8.3 | 4.2 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.6 | 8.5 | 6.4 | 3.2 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 2.9 | 4.3 | 3.3 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.7 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Rosenborg vs Molde?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.5%.
How many goals are Rosenborg and Molde expected to score?
The model projects 1.53 expected goals for Rosenborg and 1.51 for Molde, a combined total of 3.04.
How confident is the prediction model for Rosenborg vs Molde?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Rosenborg's recent record stands at 25W 14D 17L from 56 games, a 1.59 PPG return, with D-L-L-D-W in the last five. The sample for Rosenborg is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Molde, meanwhile, have gone 38W 8D 10L across 56 games — 2.18 PPG, with D-W-L-L-L in their last five. The sample for Molde is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Molde by 0.59 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Rosenborg heading into this one.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Rosenborg have managed 18W 5D 5L from 28 games — 2.11 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.59 PPG overall — Rosenborg are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Molde's away record stands at 18W 5D 5L across 28 trips, a 2.11 PPG haul.
Attack vs Defence
Rosenborg are averaging 1.86 goals scored and 1.54 conceded per game recently; Molde are on 2.27 scored and 1.05 conceded. Both sides have been scoring freely, which tends to support the goals markets running hot in this fixture.
On BTTS specifically: Rosenborg have seen both teams score in 64% of their recent games.
Defensively: Molde in 38% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 56 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Rosenborg
Blended
Molde
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Rosenborg and Molde in coming into this match?
Rosenborg have gone 25W 14D 17L in their last 56 games (1.59 PPG), while Molde have gone 38W 8D 10L in their last 56 (2.18 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Rosenborg at home or Molde away?
Rosenborg's home record (2.11 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Rosenborg at home: 2.11 PPG; Molde away: 2.11 PPG.
Have Rosenborg or Molde been keeping clean sheets recently?
Rosenborg have kept a clean sheet in 25% of their recent games, Molde in 38%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to November 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. They last met on 14 March 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Molde go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Molde won 4-1 on 21 Nov 2021, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Rosenborg have gone 2W 2D 0L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Molde — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Rosenborg
4
Draws
4
Molde
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Rosenborg and Molde?
From 10 meetings on record, Rosenborg have won 2, Molde have won 4, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Rosenborg and Molde last play each other?
They last met on 14 March 2026, when Molde 2-0 Rosenborg.
Who has won more matches between Rosenborg and Molde?
Molde have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Rosenborg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 89% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 46% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Molde are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 46% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Rosenborg 57%, Molde 61% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 71% for Rosenborg and 64% for Molde. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 39% and 46% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Rosenborg keep a clean sheet in 36% of their matches; Molde in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Rosenborg home games / Molde away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Rosenborg play Molde?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 57% of Rosenborg's games and 61% of Molde's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Rosenborg vs Molde usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 71% of Rosenborg's matches and 64% of Molde's.
Do Rosenborg and Molde tend to score early?
Rosenborg have had a goal before half-time in 89% of their recent matches, Molde in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Rosenborg cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Molde.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Rosenborg beat Molde 3-1 at Lerkendal Stadion, Regular Season - 27, in the Eliteserien. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Rosenborg 1.53 xG and Molde 1.51 xG, a combined 3.04. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Rosenborg beat their projection by 1.5 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Rosenborg attack 0.91 / defence 0.92 against Molde attack 1.21 / defence 0.92, drawn from 56/56 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Rosenborg 38% | Draw 24% | Molde 37%, with Rosenborg to win its most likely call at 38%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 59%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. Over 3.5 was 36% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 70% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Rosenborg 71%, Molde 70%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Rosenborg's trading profile (56 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.
Molde's trading profile (56 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Molde arrived the stronger side — 2.18 PPG against 1.59. Form was overturned, with Rosenborg winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Rosenborg (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 2.07 average — above their attacking norm. Molde (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.00 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.11 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.