Rosenborg vs Kristiansund BK – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Rosenborg at 52%, yet other data sources diverge — this Rosenborg vs Kristiansund BK fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Eliteserien clash, Regular Season - 14 as Rosenborg welcome Kristiansund BK to Lerkendal Stadion. Kick-off is set for Saturday 3 July 2021 at 01:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Rosenborg — All Games: 4W 2D 4L from 10 Eliteserien outings this season, averaging 1.40 points per game. Last five: W L L L D. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 1.50 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Rosenborg, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Rosenborg have posted 6W 1D 3L at Lerkendal Stadion — 1.90 PPG. They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 1.90 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.40 — Rosenborg are significantly better at Lerkendal Stadion than their overall form suggests.
Across all Eliteserien games this season, Kristiansund BK have recorded 5W 2D 3L from 10 outings — 1.70 PPG. Last five: W W L D D. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No. This season is still relatively young for Kristiansund BK, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Eliteserien this season, Kristiansund BK have posted 3W 5D 2L from 10 away outings — 1.40 PPG. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Rosenborg at 1.40 PPG versus Kristiansund BK's 1.70. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, Rosenborg have won 0, Kristiansund BK 0, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The last 1 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 0.0 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 18 Oct 2020, ended 0–0 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 0.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Profile
Rosenborg in-play tendencies (40 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 35%.
Kristiansund BK in-play tendencies (40 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 70% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Rosenborg 58% and Kristiansund BK 68% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Rosenborg 65% | Kristiansund BK 58%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Rosenborg 1.64 xG and Kristiansund BK 0.92 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Rosenborg attack 1.140 / defence 1.039 | Kristiansund BK attack 0.773 / defence 0.876. League average goals — home 1.639 / away 1.141. Data: 41 Rosenborg games / 40 Kristiansund BK games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Rosenborg 52% | Draw 29% | Kristiansund BK 19%. Fair-value odds: Rosenborg 1.92 | Draw 3.45 | Kristiansund BK 5.26. Rosenborg hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.55. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.55 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Rosenborg are the pick at 52% — moderate model lean. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Rosenborg offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.55 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 47% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 50%. Form rates corroborate: Rosenborg 50% | Kristiansund BK 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Rosenborg vs Kristiansund BK | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 14 | Venue: Lerkendal Stadion • Kick-off: Saturday 3 Jul 2021, 01:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Rosenborg 52% | Draw 29% | Kristiansund BK 19% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% | BTTS 50% | xG Rosenborg 1.64 / Kristiansund BK 0.92 • Poisson strength factors: Rosenborg attack 1.140 / def 1.039 | Kristiansund BK attack 0.773 / def 0.876 | league avg home 1.639 / away 1.141 • Poisson stance: Rosenborg (52%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.64
Rosenborg xG
Expected Goals
0.92
Kristiansund BK xG
50%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Rosenborg vs Kristiansund BK kick off?
Rosenborg vs Kristiansund BK kicked off at 01:00 on Saturday 3 July 2021 at Lerkendal Stadion.
Where is Rosenborg vs Kristiansund BK being played?
The match is being played at Lerkendal Stadion.
What competition is Rosenborg vs Kristiansund BK part of?
Rosenborg vs Kristiansund BK is a Regular Season - 14 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Rosenborg vs Kristiansund BK?
Our statistical model gives Rosenborg a 52% chance of winning, Kristiansund BK a 19% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Rosenborg the favourite.
Will both teams score in Rosenborg vs Kristiansund BK?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Rosenborg and Kristiansund BK will score (BTTS).
Will Rosenborg vs Kristiansund BK have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%.
What is the head-to-head record between Rosenborg and Kristiansund BK?
Record (1 meetings): Rosenborg 0W | Draws 1 | Kristiansund BK 0W.
What form are Rosenborg and Kristiansund BK in?
Rosenborg (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-L-L-L-D. Kristiansund BK (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-W-L-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Rosenborg's attack at 1.14x the league average against Kristiansund BK's defence at 0.88x — combine the two and it projects 1.64 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Kristiansund BK's attack versus Rosenborg's defence, projects 0.92 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 41/40 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (11.2%), 2-0 (10.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Rosenborg Win
52%
1.91
29%
3.50
19%
5.24
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.7%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.7%
Draw
2 – 0
10.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.64
Rosenborg xG
Total xG
2.55
0.92
Kristiansund BK xG
1.91
52%
Home win
3.50
29%
Draw
5.24
19%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
1.99
50%
BTTS No
2.01
Clean Sheet
40%
2.50
19%
5.14
Win to Nil
21%
4.78
4%
26.95
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.8 | 7.1 | 3.3 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 12.7 | 11.7 | 5.4 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.4 | 9.6 | 4.4 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.7 | 5.2 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.3 | 2.1 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.8 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Rosenborg vs Kristiansund BK?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.2%.
How many goals are Rosenborg and Kristiansund BK expected to score?
The model projects 1.64 expected goals for Rosenborg and 0.92 for Kristiansund BK, a combined total of 2.55.
How confident is the prediction model for Rosenborg vs Kristiansund BK?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 52%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Rosenborg's recent record stands at 19W 9D 12L from 40 games, a 1.65 PPG return, with W-L-L-L-D in the last five. The sample for Rosenborg is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Kristiansund BK, meanwhile, have gone 17W 14D 9L across 40 games — 1.62 PPG, with W-W-L-D-D in their last five. The sample for Kristiansund BK is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Rosenborg on 1.65 PPG, Kristiansund BK on 1.62. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Rosenborg have managed 13W 3D 4L from 20 games — 2.10 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.65 PPG overall — Rosenborg are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Kristiansund BK's away record stands at 7W 9D 4L across 20 trips, a 1.50 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Rosenborg come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Rosenborg are averaging 1.75 goals scored and 1.27 conceded per game recently; Kristiansund BK are on 1.62 scored and 1.35 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Kristiansund BK in 68%.
Last 40 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Rosenborg
Blended
Kristiansund BK
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Rosenborg and Kristiansund BK in coming into this match?
Rosenborg have gone 19W 9D 12L in their last 40 games (1.65 PPG), while Kristiansund BK have gone 17W 14D 9L in their last 40 (1.62 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Rosenborg at home or Kristiansund BK away?
Rosenborg's home record (2.10 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Rosenborg at home: 2.10 PPG; Kristiansund BK away: 1.50 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Rosenborg and Kristiansund BK runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2020. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. The two were last together as recently as 12 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 1 Dec 2024, when Rosenborg won 0-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Rosenborg's record when hosting Kristiansund BK specifically: 4W 1D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Rosenborg
3
Draws
2
Kristiansund BK
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Rosenborg and Kristiansund BK?
From 10 meetings on record, Rosenborg have won 5, Kristiansund BK have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Rosenborg and Kristiansund BK last play each other?
They last met on 12 July 2026, when Rosenborg 3-0 Kristiansund BK.
Who has won more matches between Rosenborg and Kristiansund BK?
Rosenborg have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Rosenborg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time.
Kristiansund BK are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Rosenborg at 65%, Kristiansund BK at 70%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 75% for Rosenborg and 60% for Kristiansund BK. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 55% and 20% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Rosenborg home games / Kristiansund BK away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Rosenborg play Kristiansund BK?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 65% of Rosenborg's games and 70% of Kristiansund BK's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Rosenborg vs Kristiansund BK usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 75% of Rosenborg's matches and 60% of Kristiansund BK's.
Do Rosenborg and Kristiansund BK tend to score early?
Rosenborg have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Kristiansund BK in 60% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Rosenborg's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Rosenborg and Kristiansund BK finished level at 0-0 at Lerkendal Stadion, Regular Season - 14, in the Eliteserien. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Rosenborg 1.64 xG and Kristiansund BK 0.92 xG, a combined 2.55. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Rosenborg fell 1.6 short of their projected output. Kristiansund BK landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Rosenborg attack 1.14 / defence 1.04 against Kristiansund BK attack 0.77 / defence 0.88, drawn from 41/40 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Rosenborg 52% | Draw 29% | Kristiansund BK 19%, with Rosenborg to win its most likely call at 52%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 74% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 61% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Rosenborg 65%, Kristiansund BK 58%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Rosenborg's trading profile (40 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 25% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Kristiansund BK's trading profile (40 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 68% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Rosenborg 1.65 PPG, Kristiansund BK 1.62 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Rosenborg (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.40 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.20 average — tighter than their form line. Kristiansund BK (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.30 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.25 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.