Rosenborg 4-0 Fredrikstad – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Rosenborg (58%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Rosenborg face Fredrikstad.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Fredrikstad make the trip to Lerkendal Stadion to face Rosenborg in Eliteserien, Regular Season - 15. The match kicks off on Monday 27 July 2026 at 18:00 UTC.
Form
Rosenborg (all games): 4W 3D 3L across 10 Eliteserien fixtures this term — 1.50 PPG. Last five: L L D W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.20 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Rosenborg, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Rosenborg's form when playing at home: 5W 3D 2L across 10 games at Lerkendal Stadion this term (1.80 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Fredrikstad's overall Eliteserien record this term: 2W 2D 6L from 10 games (0.80 PPG). Last five: W D W L L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Fredrikstad, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Fredrikstad have gone 2W 2D 6L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game.
The points-per-game gap of 0.70 in Rosenborg's favour (1.50 vs 0.80) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 4 meetings: Rosenborg 2W, Fredrikstad 0W, 2D.
The 4 previous meetings have averaged 2.2 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 28 May 2025, ended 2–0 with Rosenborg winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Rosenborg — key trading statistics (43 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (home games).
Fredrikstad — key trading statistics (43 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Rosenborg 44% versus Fredrikstad 51%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Rosenborg 49% | Fredrikstad 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Rosenborg 1.95 xG and Fredrikstad 1.03 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Rosenborg attack 1.102 / defence 0.953 | Fredrikstad attack 0.842 / defence 1.055. League average goals — home 1.675 / away 1.290. Data: 43 Rosenborg games / 43 Fredrikstad games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Rosenborg 58% | Draw 23% | Fredrikstad 19%. Fair-value odds: Rosenborg 1.72 | Draw 4.35 | Fredrikstad 5.26. The model has a clear lean to Rosenborg (58%) — a 39pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 57% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.98. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 57% — the 2.98 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Rosenborg as the most likely outcome at 58% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.98 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 57% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 56% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Rosenborg 50% | Fredrikstad 40%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Rosenborg vs Fredrikstad | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 15 | Venue: Lerkendal Stadion • Kick-off: Monday 27 Jul 2026, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Rosenborg 58% | Draw 23% | Fredrikstad 19% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 57% | BTTS 56% | xG Rosenborg 1.95 / Fredrikstad 1.03 • Poisson strength factors: Rosenborg attack 1.102 / def 0.953 | Fredrikstad attack 0.842 / def 1.055 | league avg home 1.675 / away 1.290 • Poisson stance: Rosenborg (58%) — strong lean
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
1.95
Rosenborg xG
Expected Goals
1.03
Fredrikstad xG
56%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
57%
Over 2.5
35%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Rosenborg vs Fredrikstad kick off?
Rosenborg vs Fredrikstad kicked off at 18:00 on Monday 27 July 2026 at Lerkendal Stadion.
What was the final score in Rosenborg vs Fredrikstad?
Rosenborg 4 - 0 Fredrikstad.
Where is Rosenborg vs Fredrikstad being played?
The match is being played at Lerkendal Stadion.
What competition is Rosenborg vs Fredrikstad part of?
Rosenborg vs Fredrikstad is a Regular Season - 15 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Rosenborg vs Fredrikstad?
Our statistical model gives Rosenborg a 58% chance of winning, Fredrikstad a 19% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Rosenborg the favourite.
Will both teams score in Rosenborg vs Fredrikstad?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Rosenborg and Fredrikstad will score (BTTS).
Will Rosenborg vs Fredrikstad have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 57%.
What is the head-to-head record between Rosenborg and Fredrikstad?
Record (4 meetings): Rosenborg 2W | Draws 2 | Fredrikstad 0W.
What form are Rosenborg and Fredrikstad in?
Rosenborg (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-L-D-W-W. Fredrikstad (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-D-W-L-L.
What do the betting odds say about Rosenborg vs Fredrikstad?
Odds data is not currently available for this fixture.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Rosenborg's attack at 1.10x the league average against Fredrikstad's defence at 1.05x — combine the two and it projects 1.95 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Fredrikstad's attack (0.84x) against Rosenborg's defence (0.95x) — and the away total comes out at 1.03.
These ratings are built from 43/43 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 11.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.9%), 2-0 (9.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Rosenborg Win
58%
1.72
23%
4.42
19%
5.21
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.9%
Home win
2 – 1
9.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.95
Rosenborg xG
Total xG
2.98
1.03
Fredrikstad xG
1.72
58%
Home win
4.42
23%
Draw
5.21
19%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
57%
Over 2.5
1.75
43%
Under 2.5
2.33
35%
Over 3.5
2.86
65%
Under 3.5
1.54
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.79
44%
BTTS No
2.26
Clean Sheet
36%
2.82
14%
7.01
Win to Nil
21%
4.84
3%
36.57
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.1 | 5.2 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.9 | 10.2 | 5.3 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.6 | 9.9 | 5.1 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.2 | 6.5 | 3.3 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.0 | 3.1 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.2 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Rosenborg vs Fredrikstad?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.5%.
How many goals are Rosenborg and Fredrikstad expected to score?
The model projects 1.95 expected goals for Rosenborg and 1.03 for Fredrikstad, a combined total of 2.98.
How confident is the prediction model for Rosenborg vs Fredrikstad?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 58%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Rosenborg's recent record stands at 15W 12D 16L from 43 games, a 1.33 PPG return, with L-L-D-W-W in the last five. The sample for Rosenborg is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Fredrikstad, meanwhile, have gone 15W 11D 17L across 43 games — 1.30 PPG, with W-D-W-L-L in their last five. The sample for Fredrikstad is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.33 PPG for Rosenborg against 1.30 for Fredrikstad. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Rosenborg have managed 10W 8D 4L from 22 games — 1.73 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Fredrikstad's away record stands at 5W 6D 11L across 22 trips, a 0.95 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Rosenborg come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Rosenborg are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game recently; Fredrikstad are on 1.23 scored and 1.35 conceded.
Last 43 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Rosenborg
Blended
Fredrikstad
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Rosenborg and Fredrikstad in coming into this match?
Rosenborg have gone 15W 12D 16L in their last 43 games (1.33 PPG), while Fredrikstad have gone 15W 11D 17L in their last 43 (1.30 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Rosenborg at home or Fredrikstad away?
Rosenborg's home record (1.73 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Rosenborg at home: 1.73 PPG; Fredrikstad away: 0.95 PPG.
Have Rosenborg or Fredrikstad been keeping clean sheets recently?
Rosenborg have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their recent games, Fredrikstad in 21%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 5 times that we have on record, stretching back to June 2024 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. The two were last together as recently as 27 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Rosenborg have taken the last 3 head-to-head results.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Rosenborg won 4-0 on 27 Jul 2026, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Rosenborg have gone 2W 1D 0L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Fredrikstad — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 5 Meetings
3
Rosenborg
2
Draws
0
Fredrikstad
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Rosenborg and Fredrikstad?
From 5 meetings on record, Rosenborg have won 3, Fredrikstad have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Rosenborg and Fredrikstad last play each other?
They last met on 27 July 2026, when Rosenborg 4-0 Fredrikstad.
Who has won more matches between Rosenborg and Fredrikstad?
Rosenborg have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 5 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Rosenborg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time.
Fredrikstad are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Rosenborg 54%, Fredrikstad 41% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 41% (Rosenborg) and 46% (Fredrikstad).
On the defensive side: Rosenborg keep a clean sheet in 41% of their matches; Fredrikstad in 46%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Rosenborg home games / Fredrikstad away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Rosenborg play Fredrikstad?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 54% of Rosenborg's recent matches and 41% of Fredrikstad's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Rosenborg vs Fredrikstad usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 41% of Rosenborg's recent games and 46% of Fredrikstad's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Rosenborg and Fredrikstad tend to score early?
Rosenborg have had a goal before half-time in 73% of their recent matches, Fredrikstad in 64% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Rosenborg run riot with a 4-0 hammering of Fredrikstad.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Rosenborg beat Fredrikstad 4-0 at Lerkendal Stadion, Regular Season - 15, in the Eliteserien. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Rosenborg 1.95 xG and Fredrikstad 1.03 xG, a combined 2.98. The scoreboard read 4-0 for 4 actual goals. Rosenborg beat their projection by 2.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Fredrikstad landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Rosenborg attack 1.10 / defence 0.95 against Fredrikstad attack 0.84 / defence 1.05, drawn from 43/43 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Rosenborg 58% | Draw 23% | Fredrikstad 19%, with Rosenborg to win its most likely call at 58%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. Over 3.5 was 35% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Rosenborg 49%, Fredrikstad 46%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Rosenborg's trading profile (43 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and duly kept one.
Fredrikstad's trading profile (43 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 35% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Rosenborg 1.33 PPG, Fredrikstad 1.30 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Rosenborg win broke the near-deadlock. Rosenborg (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.77 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 0.95 average — tighter than their form line. Fredrikstad (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.91 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 4 against a 1.55 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.