ODD Ballklubb 1-0 Sarpsborg 08 FF – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Sarpsborg 08 FF at 40% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this ODD Ballklubb vs Sarpsborg 08 FF encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Eliteserien clash, Regular Season - 19 as ODD Ballklubb welcome Sarpsborg 08 FF to Skagerak Arena. Kick-off is set for Saturday 20 August 2022 at 17:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Eliteserien games this season, ODD Ballklubb have gone 3W 2D 5L from 10 outings — a 1.10 PPG return. Last five: D L D L L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 2.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for ODD Ballklubb, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Skagerak Arena, ODD Ballklubb have gone 4W 0D 6L this season (10 games, 1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Sarpsborg 08 FF — All Games: 3W 0D 7L from 10 Eliteserien fixtures this season — 0.90 PPG. Last five: L L L L L. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Conceding 2.40 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Sarpsborg 08 FF, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Sarpsborg 08 FF have gone 4W 0D 6L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.20 PPG). They are averaging 2.20 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.10 PPG (ODD Ballklubb) versus 0.90 (Sarpsborg 08 FF). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
Both teams score in over 70% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 5 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for ODD Ballklubb, 2 for Sarpsborg 08 FF and 3 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.8 per contest from 5 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 7 May 2022, ended 0–1 with Sarpsborg 08 FF winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.8 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Profile
ODD Ballklubb in-play tendencies (48 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 91% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 58% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 74% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 83% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 46%; they fail to score in 31% of games.
Sarpsborg 08 FF in-play tendencies (48 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; BTTS occurs in 70% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 74% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 42%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — ODD Ballklubb 58% and Sarpsborg 08 FF 62% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (ODD Ballklubb 65% | Sarpsborg 08 FF 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects ODD Ballklubb 2.07 xG and Sarpsborg 08 FF 2.09 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: ODD Ballklubb attack 0.961 / defence 1.257 | Sarpsborg 08 FF attack 1.217 / defence 1.263. League average goals — home 1.703 / away 1.364. Sarpsborg 08 FF bring a strong defensive rating of 1.263 — this is suppressing ODD Ballklubb's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Sarpsborg 08 FF have an above-average attack strength of 1.217 — the away xG of 2.09 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 48 ODD Ballklubb games / 48 Sarpsborg 08 FF games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: ODD Ballklubb 39% | Draw 20% | Sarpsborg 08 FF 40%. Fair-value odds: ODD Ballklubb 2.56 | Draw 5.00 | Sarpsborg 08 FF 2.50. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 20% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 78% | BTTS probability 76% | Total xG 4.15. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 78% — a total xG of 4.15 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 76% reflects that both xG figures (2.07 / 2.09) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Sarpsborg 08 FF are the pick at 40% — marginal model lean. The opposing side holds a 39% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 4.15 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 78% probability — marginal — conflicting signals conviction, supported by form averaging 3.9 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 1.8 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 76%. Form rates corroborate: ODD Ballklubb 70% | Sarpsborg 08 FF 80% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 39% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: ODD Ballklubb vs Sarpsborg 08 FF | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 19 | Venue: Skagerak Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 20 Aug 2022, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: ODD Ballklubb 39% | Draw 20% | Sarpsborg 08 FF 40% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 78% | BTTS 76% | xG ODD Ballklubb 2.07 / Sarpsborg 08 FF 2.09 • Poisson strength factors: ODD Ballklubb attack 0.961 / def 1.257 | Sarpsborg 08 FF attack 1.217 / def 1.263 | league avg home 1.703 / away 1.364 • Poisson stance: Sarpsborg 08 FF (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
2.07
ODD Ballklubb xG
Expected Goals
2.09
Sarpsborg 08 FF xG
76%
BTTS
92%
Over 1.5
78%
Over 2.5
60%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does ODD Ballklubb vs Sarpsborg 08 FF kick off?
ODD Ballklubb vs Sarpsborg 08 FF kicked off at 17:00 on Saturday 20 August 2022 at Skagerak Arena.
What was the final score in ODD Ballklubb vs Sarpsborg 08 FF?
ODD Ballklubb 1 - 0 Sarpsborg 08 FF.
Where is ODD Ballklubb vs Sarpsborg 08 FF being played?
The match is being played at Skagerak Arena.
What competition is ODD Ballklubb vs Sarpsborg 08 FF part of?
ODD Ballklubb vs Sarpsborg 08 FF is a Regular Season - 19 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win ODD Ballklubb vs Sarpsborg 08 FF?
Our statistical model gives ODD Ballklubb a 39% chance of winning, Sarpsborg 08 FF a 40% chance, and a 20% chance of a draw — making Sarpsborg 08 FF the favourite.
Will both teams score in ODD Ballklubb vs Sarpsborg 08 FF?
Our model estimates a 76% probability that both ODD Ballklubb and Sarpsborg 08 FF will score (BTTS).
Will ODD Ballklubb vs Sarpsborg 08 FF have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 78%.
What is the head-to-head record between ODD Ballklubb and Sarpsborg 08 FF?
Record (5 meetings): ODD Ballklubb 0W | Draws 3 | Sarpsborg 08 FF 2W.
What form are ODD Ballklubb and Sarpsborg 08 FF in?
ODD Ballklubb (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 2.00 | L5 D-L-D-L-L. Sarpsborg 08 FF (all comps): 3W-0D-7L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 2.40 | L5 L-L-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
ODD Ballklubb's attacking strength (0.96x league average) is weighed against Sarpsborg 08 FF's defensive record (1.26x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.07. The same calculation in reverse, Sarpsborg 08 FF's attack versus ODD Ballklubb's defence, projects 2.09 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 48/48 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 7.7%. Close behind: 2-2 (7.3%), 1-2 (7.1%). Together the top three scorelines make up 22% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Sarpsborg 08 FF Win
39%
2.53
20%
4.93
40%
2.48
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 2
7.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
7.1%
Away win
2 – 1
7.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.07
ODD Ballklubb xG
Total xG
4.15
2.09
Sarpsborg 08 FF xG
2.53
39%
Home win
4.93
20%
Draw
2.48
40%
Away win
Goals Markets
92%
Over 1.5
1.09
8%
Under 1.5
12.50
78%
Over 2.5
1.28
22%
Under 2.5
4.55
60%
Over 3.5
1.67
40%
Under 3.5
2.50
40%
Over 4.5
2.50
60%
Under 4.5
1.67
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
76%
BTTS Yes
1.31
24%
BTTS No
4.26
Clean Sheet
12%
8.06
13%
7.89
Win to Nil
5%
20.42
5%
19.61
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1.6 | 3.3 | 3.4 | 2.4 | 1.2 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 3.2 | 6.8 | 7.1 | 4.9 | 2.6 | 1.1 |
| 2 | 3.4 | 7.0 | 7.3 | 5.1 | 2.7 | 1.1 |
| 3 | 2.3 | 4.8 | 5.0 | 3.5 | 1.8 | 0.8 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 2.5 | 2.6 | 1.8 | 0.9 | 0.4 |
| 5 | 0.5 | 1.0 | 1.1 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for ODD Ballklubb vs Sarpsborg 08 FF?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 7.7%.
How many goals are ODD Ballklubb and Sarpsborg 08 FF expected to score?
The model projects 2.07 expected goals for ODD Ballklubb and 2.09 for Sarpsborg 08 FF, a combined total of 4.15.
How confident is the prediction model for ODD Ballklubb vs Sarpsborg 08 FF?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 48 outings, ODD Ballklubb have picked up 1.10 PPG on a 14W 11D 23L record — D-L-D-L-L across the most recent five. The sample for ODD Ballklubb is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Sarpsborg 08 FF's form line: 17W 7D 24L from 48 games, 1.21 PPG, last five L-L-L-L-L. The sample for Sarpsborg 08 FF is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: ODD Ballklubb on 1.10 PPG, Sarpsborg 08 FF on 1.21. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, ODD Ballklubb have posted 1.17 PPG from 23 outings (8W 3D 12L).
On the road, Sarpsborg 08 FF have gone 8W 1D 14L from 23 away games — 1.09 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
ODD Ballklubb are averaging 1.31 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game recently; Sarpsborg 08 FF are on 1.48 scored and 1.65 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Sarpsborg 08 FF in 62%.
Last 48 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
ODD Ballklubb
Blended
Sarpsborg 08 FF
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are ODD Ballklubb and Sarpsborg 08 FF in coming into this match?
ODD Ballklubb have gone 14W 11D 23L in their last 48 games (1.10 PPG), while Sarpsborg 08 FF have gone 17W 7D 24L in their last 48 (1.21 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — ODD Ballklubb at home or Sarpsborg 08 FF away?
ODD Ballklubb's home record (1.17 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — ODD Ballklubb at home: 1.17 PPG; Sarpsborg 08 FF away: 1.09 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to July 2020. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. It has been a while since the last meeting — 11 August 2024, some 4 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 19 Aug 2023, when Sarpsborg 08 FF won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
ODD Ballklubb's record when hosting Sarpsborg 08 FF specifically: 1W 3D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
ODD Ballklubb
5
Draws
3
Sarpsborg 08 FF
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between ODD Ballklubb and Sarpsborg 08 FF?
From 10 meetings on record, ODD Ballklubb have won 2, Sarpsborg 08 FF have won 3, and 5 have been drawn.
When did ODD Ballklubb and Sarpsborg 08 FF last play each other?
They last met on 11 August 2024, when ODD Ballklubb 1-1 Sarpsborg 08 FF.
Who has won more matches between ODD Ballklubb and Sarpsborg 08 FF?
Sarpsborg 08 FF have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
ODD Ballklubb are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 91% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time.
Sarpsborg 08 FF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — ODD Ballklubb at 74%, Sarpsborg 08 FF at 70%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 83% for ODD Ballklubb and 74% for Sarpsborg 08 FF. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 61% and 56% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = ODD Ballklubb home games / Sarpsborg 08 FF away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when ODD Ballklubb play Sarpsborg 08 FF?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 74% of ODD Ballklubb's games and 70% of Sarpsborg 08 FF's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is ODD Ballklubb vs Sarpsborg 08 FF usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 83% of ODD Ballklubb's matches and 74% of Sarpsborg 08 FF's.
Do ODD Ballklubb and Sarpsborg 08 FF tend to score early?
ODD Ballklubb have had a goal before half-time in 91% of their recent matches, Sarpsborg 08 FF in 74% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as ODD Ballklubb defy the odds to beat Sarpsborg 08 FF 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
ODD Ballklubb beat Sarpsborg 08 FF 1-0 at Skagerak Arena, Regular Season - 19, in the Eliteserien. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting ODD Ballklubb 2.07 xG and Sarpsborg 08 FF 2.09 xG, a combined 4.15. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. ODD Ballklubb fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Sarpsborg 08 FF landed 2.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of ODD Ballklubb attack 0.96 / defence 1.26 against Sarpsborg 08 FF attack 1.22 / defence 1.26, drawn from 48/48 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it ODD Ballklubb 39% | Draw 20% | Sarpsborg 08 FF 40%, with Sarpsborg 08 FF to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual ODD Ballklubb win had been the model's second-ranked read at 39%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 78%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 92% and missed. Over 3.5 was 60% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 76% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (ODD Ballklubb 65%, Sarpsborg 08 FF 60%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
ODD Ballklubb's trading profile (48 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not.
Sarpsborg 08 FF's trading profile (48 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — ODD Ballklubb 1.10 PPG, Sarpsborg 08 FF 1.21 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the ODD Ballklubb win broke the near-deadlock. ODD Ballklubb (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.83 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line. Sarpsborg 08 FF (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.57 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 2.09 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.