ODD Ballklubb 0-1 Sandefjord – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Sandefjord at 45% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this ODD Ballklubb vs Sandefjord encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
ODD Ballklubb and Sandefjord meet at Skagerak Arena in Eliteserien, Regular Season - 8. This fixture gets under way on Wednesday 25 May 2022 at 17:00 UTC.
Current Form
ODD Ballklubb's overall Eliteserien record this term: 1W 4D 5L from 10 games (0.70 PPG). Last five: L D L L W. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 2.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.10 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
ODD Ballklubb at Skagerak Arena this season: 2W 2D 6L from 10 home games — 0.80 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 90% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Sandefjord (all games): 3W 2D 5L across 10 Eliteserien outings this term — 1.10 points per game. Last five: L D W W L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Sandefjord away from home this season: 2W 1D 7L from 10 away games — 0.70 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 2.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 0.70 vs 1.10 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using home/away splits) — ODD Ballklubb register both teams scoring in 90% of relevant games, Sandefjord in 70%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 4 meetings: ODD Ballklubb 0W, Sandefjord 2W, 2D.
The 4 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 17 Oct 2021, ended 0–0 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Data
ODD Ballklubb goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (60 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 87% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 73% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 73% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 77% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 45%.
Sandefjord goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (60 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — ODD Ballklubb 62% versus Sandefjord 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (ODD Ballklubb 65% | Sandefjord 55%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects ODD Ballklubb 1.68 xG and Sandefjord 2.00 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: ODD Ballklubb attack 1.015 / defence 1.330 | Sandefjord attack 1.152 / defence 1.152. League average goals — home 1.434 / away 1.303. Data: 38 ODD Ballklubb games / 37 Sandefjord games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: ODD Ballklubb 33% | Draw 22% | Sandefjord 45%. Fair-value odds: ODD Ballklubb 3.03 | Draw 4.55 | Sandefjord 2.22. Sandefjord hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (22%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 71% | BTTS probability 71% | Total xG 3.67. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 71% — a total xG of 3.67 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 71% reflects that both xG figures (1.68 / 2.00) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Sandefjord as the most likely outcome at 45% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 22% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Sandefjord if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.67 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 71% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 4.0 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 71% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: ODD Ballklubb 90% | Sandefjord 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: ODD Ballklubb vs Sandefjord | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 8 | Venue: Skagerak Arena • Kick-off: Wednesday 25 May 2022, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: ODD Ballklubb 33% | Draw 22% | Sandefjord 45% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 71% | BTTS 71% | xG ODD Ballklubb 1.68 / Sandefjord 2.00 • Poisson strength factors: ODD Ballklubb attack 1.015 / def 1.330 | Sandefjord attack 1.152 / def 1.152 | league avg home 1.434 / away 1.303 • Poisson stance: Sandefjord (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.68
ODD Ballklubb xG
Expected Goals
2.00
Sandefjord xG
71%
BTTS
88%
Over 1.5
71%
Over 2.5
50%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does ODD Ballklubb vs Sandefjord kick off?
ODD Ballklubb vs Sandefjord kicked off at 17:00 on Wednesday 25 May 2022 at Skagerak Arena.
What was the final score in ODD Ballklubb vs Sandefjord?
ODD Ballklubb 0 - 1 Sandefjord.
Where is ODD Ballklubb vs Sandefjord being played?
The match is being played at Skagerak Arena.
What competition is ODD Ballklubb vs Sandefjord part of?
ODD Ballklubb vs Sandefjord is a Regular Season - 8 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win ODD Ballklubb vs Sandefjord?
Our statistical model gives ODD Ballklubb a 33% chance of winning, Sandefjord a 45% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Sandefjord the favourite.
Will both teams score in ODD Ballklubb vs Sandefjord?
Our model estimates a 71% probability that both ODD Ballklubb and Sandefjord will score (BTTS).
Will ODD Ballklubb vs Sandefjord have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 71%.
What is the head-to-head record between ODD Ballklubb and Sandefjord?
Record (4 meetings): ODD Ballklubb 0W | Draws 2 | Sandefjord 2W.
What form are ODD Ballklubb and Sandefjord in?
ODD Ballklubb (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 2.10 | L5 L-D-L-L-W. Sandefjord (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-D-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from ODD Ballklubb's attack rating (1.01) and Sandefjord's defence rating (1.15), the model arrives at 1.68 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Sandefjord's attack (1.15x) against ODD Ballklubb's defence (1.33x) — and the away total comes out at 2.00.
These ratings are built from 38/37 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 9.6%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.5%), 2-1 (7.1%). Together the top three scorelines make up 25% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Sandefjord Win
33%
3.06
22%
4.56
45%
2.20
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
8.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.5%
Away win
2 – 1
7.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.68
ODD Ballklubb xG
Total xG
3.67
2.00
Sandefjord xG
3.06
33%
Home win
4.56
22%
Draw
2.20
45%
Away win
Goals Markets
88%
Over 1.5
1.14
12%
Under 1.5
8.33
71%
Over 2.5
1.41
29%
Under 2.5
3.45
50%
Over 3.5
2.00
50%
Under 3.5
2.00
31%
Over 4.5
3.23
69%
Under 4.5
1.45
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
71%
BTTS Yes
1.42
29%
BTTS No
3.39
Clean Sheet
14%
7.36
19%
5.35
Win to Nil
4%
22.54
8%
11.78
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.5 | 5.1 | 5.1 | 3.4 | 1.7 | 0.7 |
| 1 | 4.3 | 8.5 | 8.5 | 5.6 | 2.8 | 1.1 |
| 2 | 3.6 | 7.1 | 7.1 | 4.7 | 2.4 | 0.9 |
| 3 | 2.0 | 4.0 | 4.0 | 2.6 | 1.3 | 0.5 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.7 | 1.7 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for ODD Ballklubb vs Sandefjord?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.6%.
How many goals are ODD Ballklubb and Sandefjord expected to score?
The model projects 1.68 expected goals for ODD Ballklubb and 2.00 for Sandefjord, a combined total of 3.67.
How confident is the prediction model for ODD Ballklubb vs Sandefjord?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
ODD Ballklubb come into this having played 60 games, going 21W 13D 26L for 1.27 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-L-L-W.
On the other side, Sandefjord sit at 1.18 PPG from 60 outings (19W 14D 27L), a run that reads L-D-W-W-L across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.27 PPG for ODD Ballklubb against 1.18 for Sandefjord. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
ODD Ballklubb's home form reads 13W 6D 11L across 30 games on their own ground, a 1.50 PPG return.
Away from home, Sandefjord have taken 1.07 points per game from 30 outings (10W 2D 18L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, ODD Ballklubb come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
ODD Ballklubb are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.82 conceded per game recently; Sandefjord are on 1.15 scored and 1.58 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: ODD Ballklubb have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games.
Last 60 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
ODD Ballklubb
Current Season
Sandefjord
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are ODD Ballklubb and Sandefjord in coming into this match?
ODD Ballklubb have gone 21W 13D 26L in their last 60 games (1.27 PPG), while Sandefjord have gone 19W 14D 27L in their last 60 (1.18 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — ODD Ballklubb at home or Sandefjord away?
ODD Ballklubb's home record (1.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — ODD Ballklubb at home: 1.50 PPG; Sandefjord away: 1.07 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since June 2020 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. It has been a while since the last meeting — 10 November 2024, some 4 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Sandefjord won 4-1 on 4 Jun 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, ODD Ballklubb have gone 1W 1D 3L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Sandefjord — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
2
ODD Ballklubb
3
Draws
5
Sandefjord
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between ODD Ballklubb and Sandefjord?
From 10 meetings on record, ODD Ballklubb have won 2, Sandefjord have won 5, and 3 have been drawn.
When did ODD Ballklubb and Sandefjord last play each other?
They last met on 10 November 2024, when Sandefjord 1-0 ODD Ballklubb.
Who has won more matches between ODD Ballklubb and Sandefjord?
Sandefjord have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
ODD Ballklubb are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time.
Sandefjord are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 37% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 73% for ODD Ballklubb, 57% for Sandefjord — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 77% for ODD Ballklubb and 60% for Sandefjord. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 53% and 40% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Sandefjord in 27%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = ODD Ballklubb home games / Sandefjord away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when ODD Ballklubb play Sandefjord?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 73% of ODD Ballklubb's games and 57% of Sandefjord's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is ODD Ballklubb vs Sandefjord usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 77% of ODD Ballklubb's matches and 60% of Sandefjord's.
Do ODD Ballklubb and Sandefjord tend to score early?
ODD Ballklubb have had a goal before half-time in 83% of their recent matches, Sandefjord in 77% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Sandefjord edge out ODD Ballklubb 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sandefjord beat ODD Ballklubb 0-1 at Skagerak Arena, Regular Season - 8, in the Eliteserien. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting ODD Ballklubb 1.68 xG and Sandefjord 2.00 xG, a combined 3.67. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. ODD Ballklubb fell 1.7 short of their projected output. Sandefjord landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of ODD Ballklubb attack 1.01 / defence 1.33 against Sandefjord attack 1.15 / defence 1.15, drawn from 38/37 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it ODD Ballklubb 33% | Draw 22% | Sandefjord 45%, with Sandefjord to win its most likely call at 45%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 71%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 88% and missed. Over 3.5 was 50% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 71% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (ODD Ballklubb 65%, Sandefjord 55%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
ODD Ballklubb's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not.
Sandefjord's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — ODD Ballklubb 1.27 PPG, Sandefjord 1.18 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Sandefjord win broke the near-deadlock. ODD Ballklubb (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.93 scoring average — below par going forward. Sandefjord (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.90 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.