ODD Ballklubb 2-1 Rosenborg – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Rosenborg at 42%, yet other data sources diverge — this ODD Ballklubb vs Rosenborg fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Eliteserien encounter, Regular Season - 12 sees Rosenborg travel to Skagerak Arena to take on ODD Ballklubb. The game is scheduled for Sunday 2 August 2020, 19:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Eliteserien games this season, ODD Ballklubb have gone 6W 1D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.90 PPG return. Last five: W W L W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.10 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for ODD Ballklubb, so this record blends games from this season and last.
ODD Ballklubb's form when playing at home: 3W 1D 2L across 6 games at Skagerak Arena this term (1.67 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Rosenborg stand at 5W 2D 3L from 10 Eliteserien matches — 1.70 PPG. Last five: W D W L W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 0.80. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Rosenborg, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Eliteserien this season, Rosenborg have posted 2W 1D 2L from 5 away outings — 1.40 PPG. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 2 clean sheets from 5 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: ODD Ballklubb 1.90 PPG, Rosenborg 1.70 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
In-Play Profile
ODD Ballklubb in-play tendencies (11 games, 5 at home): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%; they fail to score in 36% of games.
Rosenborg in-play tendencies (11 games, 5 at away): they score before half-time in 40% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 20% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time; they fail to score in 36% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — ODD Ballklubb 36% versus Rosenborg 36%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (ODD Ballklubb 54% | Rosenborg 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects ODD Ballklubb 0.92 xG and Rosenborg 1.19 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: ODD Ballklubb attack 0.876 / defence 1.230 | Rosenborg attack 0.741 / defence 0.809. League average goals — home 1.291 / away 1.310. Data: 11 ODD Ballklubb games / 11 Rosenborg games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: ODD Ballklubb 28% | Draw 30% | Rosenborg 42%. Fair-value odds: ODD Ballklubb 3.57 | Draw 3.33 | Rosenborg 2.38. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 35% | BTTS probability 42% | Total xG 2.11. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 65% probability — total xG of 2.11 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 42% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Rosenborg as the most likely outcome at 42% — marginal model lean. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Rosenborg offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.11 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 35% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 42%. Form rates corroborate: ODD Ballklubb 50% | Rosenborg 20% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: ODD Ballklubb vs Rosenborg | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 12 | Venue: Skagerak Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 2 Aug 2020, 19:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: ODD Ballklubb 28% | Draw 30% | Rosenborg 42% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 35% | BTTS 42% | xG ODD Ballklubb 0.92 / Rosenborg 1.19 • Poisson strength factors: ODD Ballklubb attack 0.876 / def 1.230 | Rosenborg attack 0.741 / def 0.809 | league avg home 1.291 / away 1.310 • Poisson stance: Rosenborg (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.92
ODD Ballklubb xG
Expected Goals
1.19
Rosenborg xG
42%
BTTS
63%
Over 1.5
35%
Over 2.5
16%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does ODD Ballklubb vs Rosenborg kick off?
ODD Ballklubb vs Rosenborg kicked off at 19:30 on Sunday 2 August 2020 at Skagerak Arena.
What was the final score in ODD Ballklubb vs Rosenborg?
ODD Ballklubb 2 - 1 Rosenborg.
Where is ODD Ballklubb vs Rosenborg being played?
The match is being played at Skagerak Arena.
What competition is ODD Ballklubb vs Rosenborg part of?
ODD Ballklubb vs Rosenborg is a Regular Season - 12 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win ODD Ballklubb vs Rosenborg?
Our statistical model gives ODD Ballklubb a 28% chance of winning, Rosenborg a 42% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Rosenborg the favourite.
Will both teams score in ODD Ballklubb vs Rosenborg?
Our model estimates a 42% probability that both ODD Ballklubb and Rosenborg will score (BTTS).
Will ODD Ballklubb vs Rosenborg have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 35%.
What is the head-to-head record between ODD Ballklubb and Rosenborg?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are ODD Ballklubb and Rosenborg in?
ODD Ballklubb (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-W-L-W-W. Rosenborg (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-D-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates ODD Ballklubb's attack at 0.88x the league average against Rosenborg's defence at 0.81x — combine the two and it projects 0.92 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Rosenborg's attack versus ODD Ballklubb's defence, projects 1.19 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 11/11 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 15.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (13.8%), 0-1 (12.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 42% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Rosenborg Win
28%
3.61
30%
3.29
42%
2.39
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
14.5%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
0 – 0
12.1%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.92
ODD Ballklubb xG
Total xG
2.11
1.19
Rosenborg xG
3.61
28%
Home win
3.29
30%
Draw
2.39
42%
Away win
Goals Markets
62%
Over 1.5
1.61
38%
Under 1.5
2.63
35%
Over 2.5
2.86
65%
Under 2.5
1.54
16%
Over 3.5
6.25
84%
Under 3.5
1.19
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
42%
BTTS Yes
2.37
58%
BTTS No
1.73
Clean Sheet
30%
3.30
40%
2.50
Win to Nil
8%
11.92
17%
5.96
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.1 | 14.5 | 8.6 | 3.4 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.1 | 13.3 | 7.9 | 3.2 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 5.1 | 6.1 | 3.6 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.6 | 1.9 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for ODD Ballklubb vs Rosenborg?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.0%.
How many goals are ODD Ballklubb and Rosenborg expected to score?
The model projects 0.92 expected goals for ODD Ballklubb and 1.19 for Rosenborg, a combined total of 2.11.
How confident is the prediction model for ODD Ballklubb vs Rosenborg?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 11 outings, ODD Ballklubb have picked up 1.73 PPG on a 6W 1D 4L record — W-W-L-W-W across the most recent five. The sample for ODD Ballklubb is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Rosenborg's form line: 5W 3D 3L from 11 games, 1.64 PPG, last five W-D-W-L-W. The sample for Rosenborg is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: ODD Ballklubb on 1.73 PPG, Rosenborg on 1.64. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, ODD Ballklubb have posted 2.00 PPG from 5 outings (3W 1D 1L).
On the road, Rosenborg have gone 2W 1D 2L from 5 away games — 1.40 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, ODD Ballklubb come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
ODD Ballklubb are averaging 1.64 goals scored and 1.18 conceded per game recently; Rosenborg are on 1.45 scored and 0.73 conceded.
Defensively: ODD Ballklubb have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their games; Rosenborg in 45% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 11 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
ODD Ballklubb
Blended
Rosenborg
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are ODD Ballklubb and Rosenborg in coming into this match?
ODD Ballklubb have gone 6W 1D 4L in their last 11 games (1.73 PPG), while Rosenborg have gone 5W 3D 3L in their last 11 (1.64 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — ODD Ballklubb at home or Rosenborg away?
ODD Ballklubb's home record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — ODD Ballklubb at home: 2.00 PPG; Rosenborg away: 1.40 PPG.
Have ODD Ballklubb or Rosenborg been keeping clean sheets recently?
ODD Ballklubb have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their recent games, Rosenborg in 45%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between ODD Ballklubb and Rosenborg runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2020. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. It has been a while since the last meeting — 25 August 2024, some 4 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Rosenborg have won the last 3 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 22 Aug 2021, when Rosenborg won 5-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
ODD Ballklubb's record when hosting Rosenborg specifically: 1W 2D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
1
ODD Ballklubb
2
Draws
7
Rosenborg
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between ODD Ballklubb and Rosenborg?
From 10 meetings on record, ODD Ballklubb have won 1, Rosenborg have won 7, and 2 have been drawn.
When did ODD Ballklubb and Rosenborg last play each other?
They last met on 25 August 2024, when ODD Ballklubb 1-3 Rosenborg.
Who has won more matches between ODD Ballklubb and Rosenborg?
Rosenborg have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
ODD Ballklubb are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches.
Rosenborg see a goal before the break in 40% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
Clean sheets have been more common than shared scoring for these two — ODD Ballklubb 40% BTTS, Rosenborg 20%. That points toward BTTS No as the trading lean.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 60% (ODD Ballklubb) and 40% (Rosenborg).
On the defensive side: ODD Ballklubb keep a clean sheet in 40% of their matches; Rosenborg in 40%; ODD Ballklubb have failed to score in 40% of games; Rosenborg in 60%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = ODD Ballklubb home games / Rosenborg away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when ODD Ballklubb play Rosenborg?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 40% of ODD Ballklubb's recent matches and 20% of Rosenborg's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is ODD Ballklubb vs Rosenborg usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 60% of ODD Ballklubb's recent games and 40% of Rosenborg's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do ODD Ballklubb and Rosenborg tend to score early?
ODD Ballklubb have had a goal before half-time in 60% of their recent matches, Rosenborg in 40% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as ODD Ballklubb defy the odds to beat Rosenborg 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
ODD Ballklubb beat Rosenborg 2-1 at Skagerak Arena, Regular Season - 12, in the Eliteserien. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting ODD Ballklubb 0.92 xG and Rosenborg 1.19 xG, a combined 2.11. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. ODD Ballklubb beat their projection by 1.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of ODD Ballklubb attack 0.88 / defence 1.23 against Rosenborg attack 0.74 / defence 0.81, drawn from 11/11 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it ODD Ballklubb 28% | Draw 30% | Rosenborg 42%, with Rosenborg to win its most likely call at 42%. The actual ODD Ballklubb win had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 35%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 63% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (ODD Ballklubb 54%, Rosenborg 54%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 36%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
ODD Ballklubb's trading profile (11 games, 5 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 36% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.
Rosenborg's trading profile (11 games, 5 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 36% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — ODD Ballklubb 1.73 PPG, Rosenborg 1.64 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the ODD Ballklubb win broke the near-deadlock. Rosenborg (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.60 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.