ODD Ballklubb 2-3 Aalesund – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates ODD Ballklubb at 63%, yet other data sources diverge — this ODD Ballklubb vs Aalesund fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
ODD Ballklubb host Aalesund at Skagerak Arena in Eliteserien, Regular Season - 4. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 23 April 2022 at 15:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Eliteserien games this season, ODD Ballklubb have gone 1W 4D 5L from 10 outings — a 0.70 PPG return. Last five: L D L L W. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 2.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.10 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
In front of their own supporters this season, ODD Ballklubb have posted 2W 2D 6L at Skagerak Arena — 0.80 PPG. They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 90% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Aalesund — All Games: 1W 1D 8L from 10 Eliteserien fixtures this season — 0.40 PPG. Last five: L L L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.50 per game is modest, conceding 2.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.80 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Aalesund haven't played a Eliteserien game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
Aalesund's form when playing away from home: 1W 0D 9L across 10 road games this term (0.30 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 3.20 conceded per game.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — ODD Ballklubb at 0.70 PPG versus Aalesund's 0.40. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 2 previous meetings, ODD Ballklubb have won 2, Aalesund 0, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 2 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 4.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 25 Oct 2020, ended 3–0 with ODD Ballklubb winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
ODD Ballklubb in-play and half-time data (30 games, 15 at home): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 83% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 80% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 80% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 53%.
Aalesund in-play and half-time data (30 games, 15 at away): they score before half-time in 87% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 73% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 60%; they fail to score in 30% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — ODD Ballklubb 67% and Aalesund 67% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (ODD Ballklubb 67% | Aalesund 77%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects ODD Ballklubb 1.91 xG and Aalesund 0.81 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: ODD Ballklubb attack 1.137 / defence 0.990 | Aalesund attack 0.717 / defence 1.029. League average goals — home 1.628 / away 1.142. Data: 33 ODD Ballklubb games / 3 Aalesund games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: ODD Ballklubb 63% | Draw 22% | Aalesund 15%. Fair-value odds: ODD Ballklubb 1.59 | Draw 4.55 | Aalesund 6.67. The model has a clear lean to ODD Ballklubb (63%) — a 48pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.71. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.71 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates ODD Ballklubb as the most likely outcome at 63% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.71 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 51% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 4.2 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 47% on No. This conflicts with form data: ODD Ballklubb 90% | Aalesund 40% from recent games — a notable divergence.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (3 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: ODD Ballklubb vs Aalesund | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 4 | Venue: Skagerak Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 23 Apr 2022, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: ODD Ballklubb 63% | Draw 22% | Aalesund 15% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% | BTTS 47% | xG ODD Ballklubb 1.91 / Aalesund 0.81 • Poisson strength factors: ODD Ballklubb attack 1.137 / def 0.990 | Aalesund attack 0.717 / def 1.029 | league avg home 1.628 / away 1.142 • Poisson stance: ODD Ballklubb (63%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.91
ODD Ballklubb xG
Expected Goals
0.81
Aalesund xG
47%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does ODD Ballklubb vs Aalesund kick off?
ODD Ballklubb vs Aalesund kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 23 April 2022 at Skagerak Arena.
What was the final score in ODD Ballklubb vs Aalesund?
ODD Ballklubb 2 - 3 Aalesund.
Where is ODD Ballklubb vs Aalesund being played?
The match is being played at Skagerak Arena.
What competition is ODD Ballklubb vs Aalesund part of?
ODD Ballklubb vs Aalesund is a Regular Season - 4 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win ODD Ballklubb vs Aalesund?
Our statistical model gives ODD Ballklubb a 63% chance of winning, Aalesund a 15% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making ODD Ballklubb the favourite.
Will both teams score in ODD Ballklubb vs Aalesund?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both ODD Ballklubb and Aalesund will score (BTTS).
Will ODD Ballklubb vs Aalesund have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%.
What is the head-to-head record between ODD Ballklubb and Aalesund?
Record (2 meetings): ODD Ballklubb 2W | Draws 0 | Aalesund 0W.
What form are ODD Ballklubb and Aalesund in?
ODD Ballklubb (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 2.10 | L5 L-D-L-L-W. Aalesund (all comps): 1W-1D-8L in 10 | 0.40 PPG | GF 0.50 / GA 2.80 | L5 L-L-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from ODD Ballklubb's attack rating (1.14) and Aalesund's defence rating (1.03), the model arrives at 1.91 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Aalesund's attack versus ODD Ballklubb's defence, projects 0.81 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (33/3 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 2-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.0%. Close behind: 1-1 (11.5%), 1-0 (11.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
ODD Ballklubb Win
63%
1.58
22%
4.65
15%
6.54
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.6%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
12.0%
Home win
1 – 1
10.2%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.91
ODD Ballklubb xG
Total xG
2.71
0.81
Aalesund xG
1.58
63%
Home win
4.65
22%
Draw
6.54
15%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.12
53%
BTTS No
1.90
Clean Sheet
44%
2.25
15%
6.72
Win to Nil
28%
3.56
2%
43.95
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.6 | 5.4 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 12.6 | 10.2 | 4.1 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 12.0 | 9.7 | 3.9 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 7.6 | 6.2 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 3.6 | 2.9 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.4 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for ODD Ballklubb vs Aalesund?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.0%.
How many goals are ODD Ballklubb and Aalesund expected to score?
The model projects 1.91 expected goals for ODD Ballklubb and 0.81 for Aalesund, a combined total of 2.71.
How confident is the prediction model for ODD Ballklubb vs Aalesund?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 63%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
ODD Ballklubb come into this having played 30 games, going 8W 9D 13L for 1.10 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-L-L-W.
On the other side, Aalesund sit at 0.37 PPG from 30 outings (2W 5D 23L), a run that reads L-L-L-L-L across their last five. Aalesund haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
ODD Ballklubb carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.73 PPG clear of Aalesund — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
ODD Ballklubb's home form reads 5W 4D 6L across 15 games on their own ground, a 1.27 PPG return.
Away from home, Aalesund have taken 0.33 points per game from 15 outings (1W 2D 12L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, ODD Ballklubb come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
ODD Ballklubb are averaging 1.47 goals scored and 1.93 conceded per game recently; Aalesund are on 1.00 scored and 2.83 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: ODD Ballklubb have seen both teams score in 67% of their recent games; Aalesund in 67%.
Last 30 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
ODD Ballklubb
Current Season
Aalesund
Pre-Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are ODD Ballklubb and Aalesund in coming into this match?
ODD Ballklubb have gone 8W 9D 13L in their last 30 games (1.10 PPG), while Aalesund have gone 2W 5D 23L in their last 30 (0.37 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — ODD Ballklubb at home or Aalesund away?
ODD Ballklubb's home record (1.27 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — ODD Ballklubb at home: 1.27 PPG; Aalesund away: 0.33 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to July 2020. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. It has been a while since the last meeting — 3 December 2023, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
ODD Ballklubb go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 25 Oct 2020, when ODD Ballklubb won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
ODD Ballklubb's record when hosting Aalesund specifically: 2W 0D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
4
ODD Ballklubb
1
Draws
1
Aalesund
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between ODD Ballklubb and Aalesund?
From 6 meetings on record, ODD Ballklubb have won 4, Aalesund have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did ODD Ballklubb and Aalesund last play each other?
They last met on 3 December 2023, when ODD Ballklubb 4-1 Aalesund.
Who has won more matches between ODD Ballklubb and Aalesund?
ODD Ballklubb have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
ODD Ballklubb are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Aalesund are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 87% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — ODD Ballklubb at 80%, Aalesund at 53%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 80% for ODD Ballklubb and 73% for Aalesund. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 67% and 60% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Aalesund in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = ODD Ballklubb home games / Aalesund away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when ODD Ballklubb play Aalesund?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 80% of ODD Ballklubb's games and 53% of Aalesund's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is ODD Ballklubb vs Aalesund usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 80% of ODD Ballklubb's matches and 73% of Aalesund's.
Do ODD Ballklubb and Aalesund tend to score early?
ODD Ballklubb have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Aalesund in 87% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Aalesund defy the odds to beat ODD Ballklubb 2-3.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Aalesund beat ODD Ballklubb 2-3 at Skagerak Arena, Regular Season - 4, in the Eliteserien. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting ODD Ballklubb 1.91 xG and Aalesund 0.81 xG, a combined 2.71. The scoreboard read 2-3 for 5 actual goals. Aalesund outscored their 0.81 projection by 2.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of ODD Ballklubb attack 1.14 / defence 0.99 against Aalesund attack 0.72 / defence 1.03, drawn from 33/3 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it ODD Ballklubb 63% | Draw 22% | Aalesund 15%, with ODD Ballklubb to win its most likely call at 63%. Instead the game produced a Aalesund win, an outcome the model had rated at just 15% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. Over 3.5 was 29% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 72% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (ODD Ballklubb 67%, Aalesund 77%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 67%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
ODD Ballklubb's trading profile (30 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did.
Aalesund's trading profile (30 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, ODD Ballklubb arrived the stronger side — 1.10 PPG against 0.37. Form was overturned, with Aalesund winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. ODD Ballklubb (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.93 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Aalesund (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 0.93 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 2 against a 3.07 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.