Molde 4-1 Stabaek – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Molde at 41%, yet other data sources diverge — this Molde vs Stabaek fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Stabaek make the trip to Aker Stadion to face Molde in Eliteserien, Regular Season - 4. The match kicks off on Sunday 28 June 2020 at 17:00 UTC.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Molde 1.52 xG and Stabaek 1.39 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Molde attack 0.863 / defence 0.963 | Stabaek attack 0.908 / defence 1.194. League average goals — home 1.475 / away 1.583. Data: 3 Molde games / 3 Stabaek games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Molde 41% | Draw 25% | Stabaek 35%. Fair-value odds: Molde 2.44 | Draw 4.00 | Stabaek 2.86. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 2.91. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.91 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Molde as the most likely outcome at 41% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Molde if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.91 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 56% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (3 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Molde vs Stabaek | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 4 | Venue: Aker Stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 28 Jun 2020, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Molde 41% | Draw 25% | Stabaek 35% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 56% | BTTS 59% | xG Molde 1.52 / Stabaek 1.39 • Poisson strength factors: Molde attack 0.863 / def 0.963 | Stabaek attack 0.908 / def 1.194 | league avg home 1.475 / away 1.583 • Poisson stance: Molde (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.52
Molde xG
Expected Goals
1.39
Stabaek xG
59%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
56%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Molde vs Stabaek kick off?
Molde vs Stabaek kicked off at 17:00 on Sunday 28 June 2020 at Aker Stadion.
What was the final score in Molde vs Stabaek?
Molde 4 - 1 Stabaek.
Where is Molde vs Stabaek being played?
The match is being played at Aker Stadion.
What competition is Molde vs Stabaek part of?
Molde vs Stabaek is a Regular Season - 4 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Molde vs Stabaek?
Our statistical model gives Molde a 41% chance of winning, Stabaek a 35% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Molde the favourite.
Will both teams score in Molde vs Stabaek?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both Molde and Stabaek will score (BTTS).
Will Molde vs Stabaek have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 56%.
What is the head-to-head record between Molde and Stabaek?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Molde and Stabaek in?
Form data is not yet available for either side.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Molde's attack at 0.86x the league average against Stabaek's defence at 1.19x — combine the two and it projects 1.52 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Stabaek's attack (0.91x) against Molde's defence (0.96x) — and the away total comes out at 1.39.
The sample (3/3 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (8.8%), 1-2 (8.0%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Molde Win
41%
2.46
25%
4.05
35%
2.89
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.5%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.8%
Home win
1 – 0
8.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.52
Molde xG
Total xG
2.91
1.39
Stabaek xG
2.46
41%
Home win
4.05
25%
Draw
2.89
35%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
56%
Over 2.5
1.79
44%
Under 2.5
2.27
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.71
41%
BTTS No
2.41
Clean Sheet
25%
3.99
22%
4.57
Win to Nil
10%
9.82
8%
13.20
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.5 | 7.6 | 5.3 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 8.3 | 11.5 | 8.0 | 3.7 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 6.3 | 8.8 | 6.1 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 3.2 | 4.4 | 3.1 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.7 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Molde vs Stabaek?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.0%.
How many goals are Molde and Stabaek expected to score?
The model projects 1.52 expected goals for Molde and 1.39 for Stabaek, a combined total of 2.91.
How confident is the prediction model for Molde vs Stabaek?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Molde
Pre-Season
Stabaek
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 6 times that we have on record, stretching back to June 2020 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. It has been a while since the last meeting — 29 July 2023, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Molde won 4-1 on 28 Jun 2020, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Molde have gone 2W 0D 1L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Stabaek — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
5
Molde
0
Draws
1
Stabaek
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Molde and Stabaek?
From 6 meetings on record, Molde have won 5, Stabaek have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Molde and Stabaek last play each other?
They last met on 29 July 2023, when Stabaek 0-1 Molde.
Who has won more matches between Molde and Stabaek?
Molde have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 6 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Molde home games / Stabaek away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Dominant Molde run riot with a 4-1 hammering of Stabaek.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Molde beat Stabaek 4-1 at Aker Stadion, Regular Season - 4, in the Eliteserien. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Molde 1.52 xG and Stabaek 1.39 xG, a combined 2.91. The scoreboard read 4-1 for 5 actual goals. Molde beat their projection by 2.5 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Molde attack 0.86 / defence 0.96 against Stabaek attack 0.91 / defence 1.19, drawn from 3/3 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Molde 41% | Draw 25% | Stabaek 35%, with Molde to win its most likely call at 41%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. Over 3.5 was 33% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.