Molde 1-1 jerv – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Molde at 75% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Molde vs jerv encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Aker Stadion plays host to Molde versus jerv in Eliteserien, Regular Season - 11. Kick-off: Wednesday 6 July 2022 at 18:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Molde have collected 2.00 PPG across 10 Eliteserien outings this season: 6W 2D 2L. Last five: W W W W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.00 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Molde, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Molde have posted 6W 1D 3L at Aker Stadion — 1.90 PPG. They are averaging 2.30 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
jerv (all games): 2W 1D 7L across 10 Eliteserien outings this term — 0.70 points per game. Last five: L L L L W. Their scoring rate of 0.50 per game is modest, conceding 1.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for jerv, so this record blends games from this season and last.
jerv away from home this season: 0W 1D 4L from 5 away games — 0.20 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 2.80 conceded per game.
Form favours the hosts. Molde's 2.00 PPG return is 1.30 points per game ahead of jerv's 0.70 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
Trading & In-Play
Molde — key trading statistics (12 games, 5 at home): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; they lead at the break 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 80% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 100% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time.
jerv — key trading statistics (12 games, 5 at away): they score before half-time in 40% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 80% of games (away games); they fail to score in 42% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Molde 58% versus jerv 33%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Molde 67% | jerv 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Molde 2.68 xG and jerv 0.89 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Molde attack 1.246 / defence 0.997 | jerv attack 0.639 / defence 1.356. League average goals — home 1.586 / away 1.403. jerv bring a strong defensive rating of 1.356 — this is suppressing Molde's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 42 Molde games / 11 jerv games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Molde 75% | Draw 15% | jerv 10%. Fair-value odds: Molde 1.33 | Draw 6.67 | jerv 10.00. The model has a clear lean to Molde (75%) — a 65pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 69% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 3.58. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 69% — a total xG of 3.58 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Molde as the most likely outcome at 75% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support.
Poisson projects 3.58 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 69% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.8 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 55% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Molde 70% | jerv 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Molde vs jerv | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 11 | Venue: Aker Stadion • Kick-off: Wednesday 6 Jul 2022, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Molde 75% | Draw 15% | jerv 10% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 69% | BTTS 55% | xG Molde 2.68 / jerv 0.89 • Poisson strength factors: Molde attack 1.246 / def 0.997 | jerv attack 0.639 / def 1.356 | league avg home 1.586 / away 1.403 • Poisson stance: Molde (75%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.68
Molde xG
Expected Goals
0.89
jerv xG
55%
BTTS
87%
Over 1.5
69%
Over 2.5
48%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Molde vs jerv kick off?
Molde vs jerv kicked off at 18:00 on Wednesday 6 July 2022 at Aker Stadion.
What was the final score in Molde vs jerv?
Molde 1 - 1 jerv.
Where is Molde vs jerv being played?
The match is being played at Aker Stadion.
What competition is Molde vs jerv part of?
Molde vs jerv is a Regular Season - 11 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Molde vs jerv?
Our statistical model gives Molde a 75% chance of winning, jerv a 10% chance, and a 15% chance of a draw — making Molde the favourite.
Will both teams score in Molde vs jerv?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Molde and jerv will score (BTTS).
Will Molde vs jerv have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 69%.
What is the head-to-head record between Molde and jerv?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Molde and jerv in?
Molde (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-W-W-W-D. jerv (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.50 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-L-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Molde's attack at 1.25x the league average against jerv's defence at 1.36x — combine the two and it projects 2.68 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — jerv's attack (0.64x) against Molde's defence (1.00x) — and the away total comes out at 0.89.
These ratings are built from 42/11 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 2-0 carries the highest individual probability at 10.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 3-0 (9.0%), 2-1 (9.0%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Molde Win
75%
1.33
15%
6.77
10%
9.98
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
10.1%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 1
9.0%
Home win
3 – 0
9.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.68
Molde xG
Total xG
3.58
0.89
jerv xG
1.33
75%
Home win
6.77
15%
Draw
9.98
10%
Away win
Goals Markets
87%
Over 1.5
1.15
13%
Under 1.5
7.69
69%
Over 2.5
1.45
31%
Under 2.5
3.23
48%
Over 3.5
2.08
52%
Under 3.5
1.92
29%
Over 4.5
3.45
71%
Under 4.5
1.41
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.82
45%
BTTS No
2.22
Clean Sheet
41%
2.44
7%
14.61
Win to Nil
31%
3.25
1%
145.85
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.8 | 2.5 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 7.5 | 6.7 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 10.1 | 9.0 | 4.0 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – |
| 3 | 9.0 | 8.0 | 3.6 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 6.0 | 5.4 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 3.2 | 2.9 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Molde vs jerv?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.1%.
How many goals are Molde and jerv expected to score?
The model projects 2.68 expected goals for Molde and 0.89 for jerv, a combined total of 3.58.
How confident is the prediction model for Molde vs jerv?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 75%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Molde come into this having played 12 games, going 8W 2D 2L for 2.17 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-W-W-D. The sample for Molde is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, jerv sit at 0.92 PPG from 12 outings (3W 2D 7L), a run that reads L-L-L-L-W across their last five. The sample for jerv is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Molde carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.25 PPG clear of jerv — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
Molde's home form reads 3W 0D 2L across 5 games on their own ground, a 1.80 PPG return.
Away from home, jerv have taken 0.20 points per game from 5 outings (0W 1D 4L). That's a step down from their 0.92 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of jerv's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Molde come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Molde are averaging 1.83 goals scored and 0.92 conceded per game recently; jerv are on 0.83 scored and 1.92 conceded.
Defensively: Molde have kept a clean sheet in 42% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 12 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Molde
Blended
jerv
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Molde and jerv in coming into this match?
Molde have gone 8W 2D 2L in their last 12 games (2.17 PPG), while jerv have gone 3W 2D 7L in their last 12 (0.92 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Molde at home or jerv away?
Molde's home record (1.80 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Molde at home: 1.80 PPG; jerv away: 0.20 PPG.
Have Molde or jerv been keeping clean sheets recently?
Molde have kept a clean sheet in 42% of their recent games, jerv in 25%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 2 times that we have on record, stretching back to July 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. It has been a while since the last meeting — 11 September 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Molde
1
Draws
0
jerv
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Molde and jerv?
From 2 meetings on record, Molde have won 1, jerv have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Molde and jerv last play each other?
They last met on 11 September 2022, when jerv 2-4 Molde.
Who has won more matches between Molde and jerv?
Molde have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Molde are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 80% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
jerv see a goal before the break in 40% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Molde 80%, jerv 40% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 100% for Molde and 80% for jerv. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 40% and 40% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: jerv in 60%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Molde home games / jerv away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Molde play jerv?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 80% of Molde's games and 40% of jerv's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Molde vs jerv usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 100% of Molde's matches and 80% of jerv's.
Do Molde and jerv tend to score early?
Molde have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, jerv in 40% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Molde and jerv share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Molde and jerv finished level at 1-1 at Aker Stadion, Regular Season - 11, in the Eliteserien. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Molde 2.68 xG and jerv 0.89 xG, a combined 3.58. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Molde fell 1.7 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Molde attack 1.25 / defence 1.00 against jerv attack 0.64 / defence 1.36, drawn from 42/11 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Molde 75% | Draw 15% | jerv 10%, with Molde to win its most likely call at 75%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 15% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 69%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 87% and landed. Over 3.5 was 48% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Molde 67%, jerv 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Molde's trading profile (12 games, 5 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time, and conceded here.
jerv's trading profile (12 games, 5 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 33% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Molde arrived the stronger side — 2.17 PPG against 0.92. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Molde (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.40 scoring average — below par going forward. jerv (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.80 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.