Molde 5-4 Haugesund – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Molde at 72%, yet other data sources diverge — this Molde vs Haugesund fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Eliteserien encounter, Regular Season - 14 sees Haugesund travel to Aker Stadion to take on Molde. The game is scheduled for Sunday 8 August 2021, 17:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Eliteserien games this season, Molde have gone 6W 2D 2L from 10 outings — a 2.00 PPG return. Last five: W W L W D. They are averaging 2.20 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Molde, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Molde at Aker Stadion this season: 9W 0D 1L from 10 home games — 2.70 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 3.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Aker Stadion. Their home PPG of 2.70 is noticeably stronger than their overall 2.00 — Molde are significantly better at Aker Stadion than their overall form suggests.
Haugesund — All Games: 6W 2D 2L from 10 Eliteserien fixtures this season — 2.00 PPG. Last five: W L W D W. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.00. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Haugesund, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Eliteserien this season, Haugesund have posted 2W 4D 4L from 10 away outings — 1.00 PPG. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.00 is notably below their overall 2.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Molde 2.00 PPG, Haugesund 2.00 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
In-Play Data
Molde trading profile (43 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; they lead at the break 46% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 86% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 54%.
Haugesund trading profile (43 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Molde 63% versus Haugesund 51%; no strong lean in either direction. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Molde 81% | Haugesund 58%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Molde 2.31 xG and Haugesund 0.69 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Molde attack 1.473 / defence 0.818 | Haugesund attack 0.726 / defence 0.920. League average goals — home 1.705 / away 1.167. Molde carry an above-average attack strength of 1.473 — their λ of 2.31 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 44 Molde games / 43 Haugesund games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Molde 72% | Draw 21% | Haugesund 8%. Fair-value odds: Molde 1.39 | Draw 4.76 | Haugesund 12.50. The model has a clear lean to Molde (72%) — a 64pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 58% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 3.00. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 58% — the 3.00 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Molde are the pick at 72% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 21% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 3.00 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 58% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 47% on No. Form rates are neutral: Molde 50% | Haugesund 60%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Molde vs Haugesund | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 14 | Venue: Aker Stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 8 Aug 2021, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Molde 72% | Draw 21% | Haugesund 8% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 58% | BTTS 47% | xG Molde 2.31 / Haugesund 0.69 • Poisson strength factors: Molde attack 1.473 / def 0.818 | Haugesund attack 0.726 / def 0.920 | league avg home 1.705 / away 1.167 • Poisson stance: Molde (72%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.31
Molde xG
Expected Goals
0.69
Haugesund xG
47%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
58%
Over 2.5
35%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Molde vs Haugesund kick off?
Molde vs Haugesund kicked off at 17:00 on Sunday 8 August 2021 at Aker Stadion.
What was the final score in Molde vs Haugesund?
Molde 5 - 4 Haugesund.
Where is Molde vs Haugesund being played?
The match is being played at Aker Stadion.
What competition is Molde vs Haugesund part of?
Molde vs Haugesund is a Regular Season - 14 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Molde vs Haugesund?
Our statistical model gives Molde a 72% chance of winning, Haugesund a 8% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making Molde the favourite.
Will both teams score in Molde vs Haugesund?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Molde and Haugesund will score (BTTS).
Will Molde vs Haugesund have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 58%.
What is the head-to-head record between Molde and Haugesund?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Molde and Haugesund in?
Molde (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 2.20 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-W-L-W-D. Haugesund (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-L-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Molde's attack at 1.47x the league average against Haugesund's defence at 0.92x — combine the two and it projects 2.31 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Haugesund's attack versus Molde's defence, projects 0.69 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 44/43 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 2-0 carries the highest individual probability at 13.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (10.4%), 3-0 (10.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Molde Win
72%
1.39
21%
4.87
8%
13.21
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
13.2%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 0
11.5%
Home win
3 – 0
10.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.31
Molde xG
Total xG
3.00
0.69
Haugesund xG
1.39
72%
Home win
4.87
21%
Draw
13.21
8%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
58%
Over 2.5
1.72
42%
Under 2.5
2.38
35%
Over 3.5
2.86
65%
Under 3.5
1.54
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.13
53%
BTTS No
1.88
Clean Sheet
50%
2.00
10%
10.08
Win to Nil
36%
2.78
1%
133.22
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.0 | 3.4 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – | – |
| 1 | 11.5 | 7.9 | 2.8 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 13.2 | 9.2 | 3.2 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 10.2 | 7.1 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 5.9 | 4.1 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 2.7 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Molde vs Haugesund?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.2%.
How many goals are Molde and Haugesund expected to score?
The model projects 2.31 expected goals for Molde and 0.69 for Haugesund, a combined total of 3.00.
How confident is the prediction model for Molde vs Haugesund?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 72%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 43 outings, Molde have picked up 2.07 PPG on a 28W 5D 10L record — W-W-L-W-D across the most recent five. The sample for Molde is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Haugesund's form line: 17W 10D 16L from 43 games, 1.42 PPG, last five W-L-W-D-W. The sample for Haugesund is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Molde are the form team by 0.65 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Haugesund.
Venue Form
On home soil, Molde have posted 2.48 PPG from 21 outings (17W 1D 3L). That's noticeably better than their 2.07 PPG overall — Molde are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Haugesund have gone 5W 6D 10L from 21 away games — 1.00 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.42 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Haugesund's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Molde come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Molde are averaging 2.49 goals scored and 1.12 conceded per game recently; Haugesund are on 1.33 scored and 1.47 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Molde have seen both teams score in 63% of their recent games.
Last 43 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Molde
Blended
Haugesund
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Molde and Haugesund in coming into this match?
Molde have gone 28W 5D 10L in their last 43 games (2.07 PPG), while Haugesund have gone 17W 10D 16L in their last 43 (1.42 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Molde at home or Haugesund away?
Molde's home record (2.48 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Molde at home: 2.48 PPG; Haugesund away: 1.00 PPG.
Have Molde or Haugesund been keeping clean sheets recently?
Molde have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Haugesund in 30%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. They last met on 9 November 2025, roughly 8 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Molde have won the last 10 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 27 Oct 2024, when Molde won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Molde's record when hosting Haugesund specifically: 5W 0D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
10
Molde
0
Draws
0
Haugesund
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Molde and Haugesund?
From 10 meetings on record, Molde have won 10, Haugesund have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Molde and Haugesund last play each other?
They last met on 9 November 2025, when Haugesund 0-2 Molde.
Who has won more matches between Molde and Haugesund?
Molde have the better head-to-head record, with 10 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Molde are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 67% of the time.
Haugesund are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Molde 57%, Haugesund 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 86% for Molde and 52% for Haugesund. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 57% and 29% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Molde keep a clean sheet in 38% of their matches; Haugesund in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Molde home games / Haugesund away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Molde play Haugesund?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 57% of Molde's recent matches and 52% of Haugesund's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Molde vs Haugesund usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 86% of Molde's matches and 52% of Haugesund's.
Do Molde and Haugesund tend to score early?
Molde have had a goal before half-time in 86% of their recent matches, Haugesund in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Molde edge out Haugesund 5-4.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Molde beat Haugesund 5-4 at Aker Stadion, Regular Season - 14, in the Eliteserien. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Molde 2.31 xG and Haugesund 0.69 xG, a combined 3.00. The scoreboard read 5-4 for 9 actual goals. Molde beat their projection by 2.7 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Haugesund outscored their 0.69 projection by 3.3. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Molde attack 1.47 / defence 0.82 against Haugesund attack 0.73 / defence 0.92, drawn from 44/43 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Molde 72% | Draw 21% | Haugesund 8%, with Molde to win its most likely call at 72%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 9, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. Over 3.5 was 35% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 70% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Molde 81%, Haugesund 58%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Molde's trading profile (43 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Haugesund's trading profile (43 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Molde arrived the stronger side — 2.07 PPG against 1.42. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Molde (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 3.00 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 4 against a 0.86 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Haugesund (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 0.90 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 5 against a 1.57 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.