Molde 4-2 Bodo/Glimt – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Bodo/Glimt at 43% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Molde vs Bodo/Glimt encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Molde and Bodo/Glimt meet at Aker Stadion in Eliteserien, Regular Season - 21. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 17 October 2020 at 19:30 UTC.
Current Form
Molde's overall Eliteserien record this term: 4W 0D 6L from 10 games (1.20 PPG). Last five: W L L L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 1.40 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Molde, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Molde's home record at Aker Stadion: 7W 0D 2L from 9 Eliteserien appearances (2.33 PPG). They are averaging 2.67 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 9 games (44%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 2.33 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.20 — Molde are significantly better at Aker Stadion than their overall form suggests.
Bodo/Glimt have collected 2.60 PPG across 10 Eliteserien outings this season: 8W 2D 0L. Last five: W W W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 3.10 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Bodo/Glimt, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Bodo/Glimt's form when playing away from home: 8W 2D 0L across 10 road games this term (2.60 PPG). They are averaging 3.20 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Bodo/Glimt are 1.40 PPG clear of Molde in recent Eliteserien fixtures (2.60 vs 1.20). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
Trading
Molde half-time and goal-timing data (20 games, 9 at home): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 75% of those occasions; they lead at the break 45% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 50%.
Bodo/Glimt half-time and goal-timing data (20 games, 9 at away): they score before half-time in 89% of fixtures in away games; they lead at the break 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 78% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 100% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 70%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Molde 65% and Bodo/Glimt 75% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Molde 85% | Bodo/Glimt 95%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Molde 1.73 xG and Bodo/Glimt 1.90 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Molde attack 1.145 / defence 0.900 | Bodo/Glimt attack 1.521 / defence 1.034. League average goals — home 1.462 / away 1.389. Bodo/Glimt have an above-average attack strength of 1.521 — the away xG of 1.90 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 20 Molde games / 20 Bodo/Glimt games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Molde 36% | Draw 22% | Bodo/Glimt 43%. Fair-value odds: Molde 2.78 | Draw 4.55 | Bodo/Glimt 2.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 22% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 70% | BTTS probability 70% | Total xG 3.63. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 70% — a total xG of 3.63 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 70% reflects that both xG figures (1.73 / 1.90) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Bodo/Glimt at 43% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 22% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Bodo/Glimt if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.63 combined xG gives a 70% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.9 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 70%. Form rates corroborate: Molde 44% | Bodo/Glimt 80% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Molde vs Bodo/Glimt | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 21 | Venue: Aker Stadion • Kick-off: Saturday 17 Oct 2020, 19:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Molde 36% | Draw 22% | Bodo/Glimt 43% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 70% | BTTS 70% | xG Molde 1.73 / Bodo/Glimt 1.90 • Poisson strength factors: Molde attack 1.145 / def 0.900 | Bodo/Glimt attack 1.521 / def 1.034 | league avg home 1.462 / away 1.389 • Poisson stance: Bodo/Glimt (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.73
Molde xG
Expected Goals
1.90
Bodo/Glimt xG
70%
BTTS
88%
Over 1.5
70%
Over 2.5
49%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Molde vs Bodo/Glimt kick off?
Molde vs Bodo/Glimt kicked off at 19:30 on Saturday 17 October 2020 at Aker Stadion.
What was the final score in Molde vs Bodo/Glimt?
Molde 4 - 2 Bodo/Glimt.
Where is Molde vs Bodo/Glimt being played?
The match is being played at Aker Stadion.
What competition is Molde vs Bodo/Glimt part of?
Molde vs Bodo/Glimt is a Regular Season - 21 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Molde vs Bodo/Glimt?
Our statistical model gives Molde a 36% chance of winning, Bodo/Glimt a 43% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Bodo/Glimt the favourite.
Will both teams score in Molde vs Bodo/Glimt?
Our model estimates a 70% probability that both Molde and Bodo/Glimt will score (BTTS).
Will Molde vs Bodo/Glimt have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 70%.
What is the head-to-head record between Molde and Bodo/Glimt?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Molde and Bodo/Glimt in?
Molde (all comps): 4W-0D-6L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-L-L-L-W. Bodo/Glimt (all comps): 8W-2D-0L in 10 | 2.60 PPG | GF 3.10 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-W-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Molde's attack rating (1.15) and Bodo/Glimt's defence rating (1.03), the model arrives at 1.73 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Bodo/Glimt's attack (1.52x) against Molde's defence (0.90x) — and the away total comes out at 1.90.
These ratings are built from 20/20 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 9.8%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.3%), 2-1 (7.5%). Together the top three scorelines make up 26% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Bodo/Glimt Win
36%
2.81
22%
4.56
43%
2.35
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
8.7%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.3%
Away win
2 – 1
7.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.73
Molde xG
Total xG
3.63
1.90
Bodo/Glimt xG
2.81
36%
Home win
4.56
22%
Draw
2.35
43%
Away win
Goals Markets
88%
Over 1.5
1.14
12%
Under 1.5
8.33
70%
Over 2.5
1.43
30%
Under 2.5
3.33
49%
Over 3.5
2.04
51%
Under 3.5
1.96
30%
Over 4.5
3.33
70%
Under 4.5
1.43
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
70%
BTTS Yes
1.43
30%
BTTS No
3.34
Clean Sheet
15%
6.71
18%
5.64
Win to Nil
5%
18.86
8%
13.27
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.6 | 5.0 | 4.8 | 3.0 | 1.4 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 4.6 | 8.7 | 8.3 | 5.3 | 2.5 | 1.0 |
| 2 | 4.0 | 7.5 | 7.2 | 4.5 | 2.2 | 0.8 |
| 3 | 2.3 | 4.3 | 4.1 | 2.6 | 1.2 | 0.5 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.9 | 1.8 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Molde vs Bodo/Glimt?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.8%.
How many goals are Molde and Bodo/Glimt expected to score?
The model projects 1.73 expected goals for Molde and 1.90 for Bodo/Glimt, a combined total of 3.63.
How confident is the prediction model for Molde vs Bodo/Glimt?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Molde come into this having played 20 games, going 12W 1D 7L for 1.85 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-L-L-W. The sample for Molde is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Bodo/Glimt sit at 2.80 PPG from 20 outings (18W 2D 0L), a run that reads W-W-W-W-W across their last five. The sample for Bodo/Glimt is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Bodo/Glimt carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.95 PPG clear of Molde — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
Molde's home form reads 7W 0D 2L across 9 games on their own ground, a 2.33 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.85 PPG overall — Molde are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Bodo/Glimt have taken 2.56 points per game from 9 outings (7W 2D 0L).
Attack vs Defence
Molde are averaging 2.40 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game recently; Bodo/Glimt are on 3.45 scored and 1.05 conceded. Both sides have been scoring freely, which tends to support the goals markets running hot in this fixture.
On BTTS specifically: Molde have seen both teams score in 65% of their recent games; Bodo/Glimt in 75%.
Last 20 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Molde
Blended
Bodo/Glimt
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Molde and Bodo/Glimt in coming into this match?
Molde have gone 12W 1D 7L in their last 20 games (1.85 PPG), while Bodo/Glimt have gone 18W 2D 0L in their last 20 (2.80 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Molde at home or Bodo/Glimt away?
Bodo/Glimt's away record (2.56 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Molde at home: 2.33 PPG; Bodo/Glimt away: 2.56 PPG.
Have Molde or Bodo/Glimt been keeping clean sheets recently?
Molde have kept a clean sheet in 30% of their recent games, Bodo/Glimt in 25%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. The two were last together as recently as 4 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Molde won 1-4 on 3 Sep 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Molde have gone 1W 2D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Bodo/Glimt — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Molde
4
Draws
3
Bodo/Glimt
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Molde and Bodo/Glimt?
From 10 meetings on record, Molde have won 3, Bodo/Glimt have won 3, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Molde and Bodo/Glimt last play each other?
They last met on 4 May 2026, when Bodo/Glimt 0-1 Molde.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Molde are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 56% of the time.
Bodo/Glimt are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 89% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 89% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 22% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Molde 44%, Bodo/Glimt 78% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 67% for Molde and 100% for Bodo/Glimt. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 44% and 78% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Molde keep a clean sheet in 44% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Molde home games / Bodo/Glimt away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Molde play Bodo/Glimt?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 44% of Molde's games and 78% of Bodo/Glimt's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Molde vs Bodo/Glimt usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of Molde's matches and 100% of Bodo/Glimt's.
Do Molde and Bodo/Glimt tend to score early?
Molde have had a goal before half-time in 78% of their recent matches, Bodo/Glimt in 89% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Molde cruise to a comfortable 4-2 victory over Bodo/Glimt.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Molde beat Bodo/Glimt 4-2 at Aker Stadion, Regular Season - 21, in the Eliteserien. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Molde 1.73 xG and Bodo/Glimt 1.90 xG, a combined 3.63. The scoreboard read 4-2 for 6 actual goals. Molde beat their projection by 2.3 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Molde attack 1.15 / defence 0.90 against Bodo/Glimt attack 1.52 / defence 1.03, drawn from 20/20 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Molde 36% | Draw 22% | Bodo/Glimt 43%, with Bodo/Glimt to win its most likely call at 43%. The actual Molde win had been the model's second-ranked read at 36%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 70%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 88% and landed. Over 3.5 was 49% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 70% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 90% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Molde 85%, Bodo/Glimt 95%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 70%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Molde's trading profile (20 games, 9 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.
Bodo/Glimt's trading profile (20 games, 9 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 75% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Bodo/Glimt arrived the stronger side — 2.80 PPG against 1.85. Form was overturned, with Molde winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Molde (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 2.67 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 0.67 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Bodo/Glimt (home/away splits) managed 2 against a 3.11 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 4 against a 1.22 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.