Mjondalen vs Stabaek – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Mjondalen at 38%, yet other data sources diverge — this Mjondalen vs Stabaek fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Eliteserien clash, Regular Season - 15 as Mjondalen welcome Stabaek to Consto Arena. Kick-off is set for Saturday 10 July 2021 at 01:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Eliteserien games this season, Mjondalen have gone 2W 4D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.00 PPG return. Last five: L D D L L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Mjondalen, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Consto Arena, Mjondalen have gone 4W 3D 3L this season (10 games, 1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 1.50 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.00 — Mjondalen are significantly better at Consto Arena than their overall form suggests.
Stabaek — All Games: 1W 3D 6L from 10 Eliteserien fixtures this season — 0.60 PPG. Last five: L L L D L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 2.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.20 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Stabaek, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Stabaek have gone 2W 4D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.00 PPG (Mjondalen) versus 0.60 (Stabaek). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 2 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Mjondalen, 1 for Stabaek and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 0.5 per contest from 2 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 29 Nov 2020, ended 0–1 with Stabaek winning.
With a balanced win record and just 0.5 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Patterns
Mjondalen in-play and half-time data (40 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (home games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
Stabaek in-play and half-time data (40 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 70% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 40%; they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Mjondalen 45% versus Stabaek 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Mjondalen 42% | Stabaek 55%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Mjondalen 1.39 xG and Stabaek 1.25 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Mjondalen attack 0.729 / defence 0.933 | Stabaek attack 1.167 / defence 1.165. League average goals — home 1.641 / away 1.152. Mjondalen's attack strength of 0.729 is below the league average — the 1.39 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 39 Mjondalen games / 40 Stabaek games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Mjondalen 38% | Draw 30% | Stabaek 32%. Fair-value odds: Mjondalen 2.63 | Draw 3.33 | Stabaek 3.12. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.65. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.65 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Mjondalen as the most likely outcome at 38% — marginal model lean. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Mjondalen offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.65 combined xG gives a 49% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though form averaging only 2.9 goals per game points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 55% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Mjondalen 50% | Stabaek 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Mjondalen vs Stabaek | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 15 | Venue: Consto Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 10 Jul 2021, 01:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Mjondalen 38% | Draw 30% | Stabaek 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% | BTTS 55% | xG Mjondalen 1.39 / Stabaek 1.25 • Poisson strength factors: Mjondalen attack 0.729 / def 0.933 | Stabaek attack 1.167 / def 1.165 | league avg home 1.641 / away 1.152 • Poisson stance: Mjondalen (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.39
Mjondalen xG
Expected Goals
1.25
Stabaek xG
55%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Mjondalen vs Stabaek kick off?
Mjondalen vs Stabaek kicked off at 01:00 on Saturday 10 July 2021 at Consto Arena.
Where is Mjondalen vs Stabaek being played?
The match is being played at Consto Arena.
What competition is Mjondalen vs Stabaek part of?
Mjondalen vs Stabaek is a Regular Season - 15 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Mjondalen vs Stabaek?
Our statistical model gives Mjondalen a 38% chance of winning, Stabaek a 32% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Mjondalen the favourite.
Will both teams score in Mjondalen vs Stabaek?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Mjondalen and Stabaek will score (BTTS).
Will Mjondalen vs Stabaek have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%.
What is the head-to-head record between Mjondalen and Stabaek?
Record (2 meetings): Mjondalen 0W | Draws 1 | Stabaek 1W.
What form are Mjondalen and Stabaek in?
Mjondalen (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-D-D-L-L. Stabaek (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 2.20 | L5 L-L-L-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Mjondalen's attack at 0.73x the league average against Stabaek's defence at 1.17x — combine the two and it projects 1.39 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Stabaek's attack versus Mjondalen's defence, projects 1.25 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 39/40 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (8.7%), 2-1 (8.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Mjondalen Win
38%
2.60
30%
3.39
32%
3.12
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.9%
Home win
0 – 1
8.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.39
Mjondalen xG
Total xG
2.65
1.25
Stabaek xG
2.60
38%
Home win
3.39
30%
Draw
3.12
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.80
45%
BTTS No
2.24
Clean Sheet
29%
3.50
25%
4.03
Win to Nil
11%
9.11
8%
12.57
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.1 | 8.9 | 5.6 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.9 | 12.4 | 7.8 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.9 | 8.6 | 5.4 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.2 | 4.0 | 2.5 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.4 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Mjondalen vs Stabaek?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.0%.
How many goals are Mjondalen and Stabaek expected to score?
The model projects 1.39 expected goals for Mjondalen and 1.25 for Stabaek, a combined total of 2.65.
How confident is the prediction model for Mjondalen vs Stabaek?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Mjondalen come into this having played 40 games, going 10W 7D 23L for 0.92 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-D-L-L. The sample for Mjondalen is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Stabaek sit at 1.12 PPG from 40 outings (10W 15D 15L), a run that reads L-L-L-D-L across their last five. The sample for Stabaek is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Mjondalen on 0.92 PPG, Stabaek on 1.12. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Mjondalen's home form reads 7W 3D 10L across 20 games on their own ground, a 1.20 PPG return.
Away from home, Stabaek have taken 1.00 points per game from 20 outings (4W 8D 8L).
Goals in Recent Form
Mjondalen are averaging 0.95 goals scored and 1.45 conceded per game recently; Stabaek are on 1.30 scored and 1.68 conceded.
Last 40 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Mjondalen
Blended
Stabaek
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Mjondalen and Stabaek in coming into this match?
Mjondalen have gone 10W 7D 23L in their last 40 games (0.92 PPG), while Stabaek have gone 10W 15D 15L in their last 40 (1.12 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Mjondalen at home or Stabaek away?
Mjondalen's home record (1.20 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Mjondalen at home: 1.20 PPG; Stabaek away: 1.00 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to June 2020. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. It has been a while since the last meeting — 21 August 2021, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Mjondalen's record when hosting Stabaek specifically: 0W 0D 2L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Mjondalen
2
Draws
2
Stabaek
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Mjondalen and Stabaek?
From 4 meetings on record, Mjondalen have won 0, Stabaek have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Mjondalen and Stabaek last play each other?
They last met on 21 August 2021, when Stabaek 1-1 Mjondalen.
Who has won more matches between Mjondalen and Stabaek?
Stabaek have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Mjondalen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time.
Stabaek are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Mjondalen 40%, Stabaek 65% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 40% (Mjondalen) and 70% (Stabaek). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 15% and 60% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Mjondalen keep a clean sheet in 35% of their matches; Mjondalen have failed to score in 30% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Mjondalen home games / Stabaek away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Mjondalen play Stabaek?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 40% of Mjondalen's recent matches and 65% of Stabaek's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Mjondalen vs Stabaek usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 40% of Mjondalen's matches and 70% of Stabaek's.
Do Mjondalen and Stabaek tend to score early?
Mjondalen have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Stabaek in 80% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Mjondalen's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Mjondalen and Stabaek finished level at 0-0 at Consto Arena, Regular Season - 15, in the Eliteserien. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Mjondalen 1.39 xG and Stabaek 1.25 xG, a combined 2.65. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Mjondalen fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Stabaek landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Mjondalen attack 0.73 / defence 0.93 against Stabaek attack 1.17 / defence 1.17, drawn from 39/40 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Mjondalen 38% | Draw 30% | Stabaek 32%, with Mjondalen to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 76% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Mjondalen 42%, Stabaek 55%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Mjondalen's trading profile (40 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 35% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Stabaek's trading profile (40 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 32% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Mjondalen 0.92 PPG, Stabaek 1.12 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Mjondalen (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.10 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.20 average — tighter than their form line. Stabaek (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.45 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 2.05 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.