Mjondalen vs Sarpsborg 08 FF – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Mjondalen at 50%, yet other data sources diverge — this Mjondalen vs Sarpsborg 08 FF fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Eliteserien clash, Regular Season - 17 as Mjondalen welcome Sarpsborg 08 FF to Consto Arena. Kick-off is set for Saturday 31 July 2021 at 01:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Mjondalen — All Games: 1W 5D 4L from 10 Eliteserien outings this season, averaging 0.80 points per game. Last five: L W D D L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Mjondalen, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Consto Arena, Mjondalen have gone 4W 3D 3L this season (10 games, 1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 1.50 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.80 — Mjondalen are significantly better at Consto Arena than their overall form suggests.
Across all Eliteserien games this season, Sarpsborg 08 FF have recorded 2W 3D 5L from 10 outings — 0.90 PPG. Last five: W L D D L. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Sarpsborg 08 FF, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Sarpsborg 08 FF have gone 2W 3D 5L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Mjondalen at 0.80 PPG versus Sarpsborg 08 FF's 0.90. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 3 previous meetings, Mjondalen have won 1, Sarpsborg 08 FF 1, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The last 3 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 1.7 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 21 Jul 2021, ended 1–1 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 1.7 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Profile
Mjondalen in-play tendencies (44 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
Sarpsborg 08 FF in-play tendencies (44 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (away games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Mjondalen 48% versus Sarpsborg 08 FF 43%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Mjondalen 43% | Sarpsborg 08 FF 41%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Mjondalen 1.53 xG and Sarpsborg 08 FF 0.88 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Mjondalen attack 0.826 / defence 0.951 | Sarpsborg 08 FF attack 0.794 / defence 1.084. League average goals — home 1.705 / away 1.167. Data: 43 Mjondalen games / 44 Sarpsborg 08 FF games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Mjondalen 50% | Draw 32% | Sarpsborg 08 FF 19%. Fair-value odds: Mjondalen 2.00 | Draw 3.12 | Sarpsborg 08 FF 5.26. Mjondalen hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (32%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.41. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.41 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Mjondalen are the pick at 50% — moderate model lean. With a 32% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Mjondalen offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.41 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 43% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by H2H averaging 1.7 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 49%. Form rates are neutral: Mjondalen 50% | Sarpsborg 08 FF 50%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Mjondalen vs Sarpsborg 08 FF | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 17 | Venue: Consto Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 31 Jul 2021, 01:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Mjondalen 50% | Draw 32% | Sarpsborg 08 FF 19% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% | BTTS 49% | xG Mjondalen 1.53 / Sarpsborg 08 FF 0.88 • Poisson strength factors: Mjondalen attack 0.826 / def 0.951 | Sarpsborg 08 FF attack 0.794 / def 1.084 | league avg home 1.705 / away 1.167 • Poisson stance: Mjondalen (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.53
Mjondalen xG
Expected Goals
0.88
Sarpsborg 08 FF xG
49%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Mjondalen vs Sarpsborg 08 FF kick off?
Mjondalen vs Sarpsborg 08 FF kicked off at 01:00 on Saturday 31 July 2021 at Consto Arena.
Where is Mjondalen vs Sarpsborg 08 FF being played?
The match is being played at Consto Arena.
What competition is Mjondalen vs Sarpsborg 08 FF part of?
Mjondalen vs Sarpsborg 08 FF is a Regular Season - 17 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Mjondalen vs Sarpsborg 08 FF?
Our statistical model gives Mjondalen a 50% chance of winning, Sarpsborg 08 FF a 19% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Mjondalen the favourite.
Will both teams score in Mjondalen vs Sarpsborg 08 FF?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Mjondalen and Sarpsborg 08 FF will score (BTTS).
Will Mjondalen vs Sarpsborg 08 FF have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%.
What is the head-to-head record between Mjondalen and Sarpsborg 08 FF?
Record (3 meetings): Mjondalen 1W | Draws 1 | Sarpsborg 08 FF 1W.
What form are Mjondalen and Sarpsborg 08 FF in?
Mjondalen (all comps): 1W-5D-4L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-W-D-D-L. Sarpsborg 08 FF (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.70 | L5 W-L-D-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Mjondalen's attack at 0.83x the league average against Sarpsborg 08 FF's defence at 1.08x — combine the two and it projects 1.53 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Sarpsborg 08 FF's attack versus Mjondalen's defence, projects 0.88 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 43/44 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (12.2%), 0-0 (10.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Mjondalen Win
50%
2.02
32%
3.16
19%
5.31
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.7%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.1%
Draw
2 – 0
10.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.53
Mjondalen xG
Total xG
2.41
0.88
Sarpsborg 08 FF xG
2.02
50%
Home win
3.16
32%
Draw
5.31
19%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.05
51%
BTTS No
1.95
Clean Sheet
41%
2.41
22%
4.60
Win to Nil
21%
4.88
4%
24.43
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.0 | 7.9 | 3.5 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 13.7 | 12.1 | 5.3 | 1.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.5 | 9.2 | 4.1 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – |
| 3 | 5.3 | 4.7 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.0 | 1.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Mjondalen vs Sarpsborg 08 FF?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.7%.
How many goals are Mjondalen and Sarpsborg 08 FF expected to score?
The model projects 1.53 expected goals for Mjondalen and 0.88 for Sarpsborg 08 FF, a combined total of 2.41.
How confident is the prediction model for Mjondalen vs Sarpsborg 08 FF?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Mjondalen's recent record stands at 11W 9D 24L from 44 games, a 0.95 PPG return, with L-W-D-D-L in the last five. The sample for Mjondalen is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Sarpsborg 08 FF, meanwhile, have gone 11W 13D 20L across 44 games — 1.05 PPG, with W-L-D-D-L in their last five. The sample for Sarpsborg 08 FF is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Mjondalen on 0.95 PPG, Sarpsborg 08 FF on 1.05. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Mjondalen have managed 8W 3D 11L from 22 games — 1.23 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Sarpsborg 08 FF's away record stands at 4W 6D 12L across 22 trips, a 0.82 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Mjondalen come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Mjondalen are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.41 conceded per game recently; Sarpsborg 08 FF are on 1.00 scored and 1.41 conceded.
Last 44 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Mjondalen
Blended
Sarpsborg 08 FF
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Mjondalen and Sarpsborg 08 FF in coming into this match?
Mjondalen have gone 11W 9D 24L in their last 44 games (0.95 PPG), while Sarpsborg 08 FF have gone 11W 13D 20L in their last 44 (1.05 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Mjondalen at home or Sarpsborg 08 FF away?
Mjondalen's home record (1.23 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Mjondalen at home: 1.23 PPG; Sarpsborg 08 FF away: 0.82 PPG.
Have Mjondalen or Sarpsborg 08 FF been keeping clean sheets recently?
Mjondalen have kept a clean sheet in 25% of their recent games, Sarpsborg 08 FF in 34%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Mjondalen and Sarpsborg 08 FF runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to June 2020. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. It has been a while since the last meeting — 28 November 2021, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Mjondalen's record when hosting Sarpsborg 08 FF specifically: 1W 0D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Mjondalen
1
Draws
2
Sarpsborg 08 FF
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Mjondalen and Sarpsborg 08 FF?
From 4 meetings on record, Mjondalen have won 1, Sarpsborg 08 FF have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Mjondalen and Sarpsborg 08 FF last play each other?
They last met on 28 November 2021, when Mjondalen 1-3 Sarpsborg 08 FF.
Who has won more matches between Mjondalen and Sarpsborg 08 FF?
Sarpsborg 08 FF have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Mjondalen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time.
Sarpsborg 08 FF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Mjondalen 41%, Sarpsborg 08 FF 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 46% (Mjondalen) and 41% (Sarpsborg 08 FF).
On the defensive side: Mjondalen keep a clean sheet in 36% of their matches; Mjondalen have failed to score in 27% of games; Sarpsborg 08 FF in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Mjondalen home games / Sarpsborg 08 FF away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Mjondalen play Sarpsborg 08 FF?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 41% of Mjondalen's recent matches and 50% of Sarpsborg 08 FF's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Mjondalen vs Sarpsborg 08 FF usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 46% of Mjondalen's recent games and 41% of Sarpsborg 08 FF's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Mjondalen and Sarpsborg 08 FF tend to score early?
Mjondalen have had a goal before half-time in 77% of their recent matches, Sarpsborg 08 FF in 64% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Mjondalen's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Mjondalen and Sarpsborg 08 FF finished level at 0-0 at Consto Arena, Regular Season - 17, in the Eliteserien. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Mjondalen 1.53 xG and Sarpsborg 08 FF 0.88 xG, a combined 2.41. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Mjondalen fell 1.5 short of their projected output. Sarpsborg 08 FF landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Mjondalen attack 0.83 / defence 0.95 against Sarpsborg 08 FF attack 0.79 / defence 1.08, drawn from 43/44 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Mjondalen 50% | Draw 32% | Sarpsborg 08 FF 19%, with Mjondalen to win its most likely call at 50%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 72% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Mjondalen 43%, Sarpsborg 08 FF 41%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 45%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Mjondalen's trading profile (44 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 32% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Sarpsborg 08 FF's trading profile (44 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 34% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Mjondalen 0.95 PPG, Sarpsborg 08 FF 1.05 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Mjondalen (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.18 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.18 average — tighter than their form line. Sarpsborg 08 FF (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.86 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.91 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.