Mjondalen 1-2 ODD Ballklubb – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Mjondalen at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this Mjondalen vs ODD Ballklubb fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
ODD Ballklubb make the trip to Consto Arena to face Mjondalen in Eliteserien, Regular Season - 10. The match kicks off on Thursday 1 July 2021 at 17:00 UTC.
Form
Mjondalen (all games): 3W 4D 3L across 10 Eliteserien fixtures this term — 1.30 PPG. Last five: L D L D D. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Mjondalen have played only a handful of Eliteserien games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Mjondalen's home record at Consto Arena: 5W 3D 2L from 10 Eliteserien appearances (1.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Consto Arena. Their home PPG of 1.80 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.30 — Mjondalen are significantly better at Consto Arena than their overall form suggests.
ODD Ballklubb have collected 1.20 PPG across 10 Eliteserien outings this season: 3W 3D 4L. Last five: W L D W W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for ODD Ballklubb, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Eliteserien this season, ODD Ballklubb have posted 2W 3D 5L from 10 away outings — 0.90 PPG. Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.30 for Mjondalen, 1.20 for ODD Ballklubb — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Mjondalen lead 0W to 2W over the last 2 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 4.5 goals per game across 2 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 30 Aug 2020, ended 1–6 with ODD Ballklubb winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.5 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Mjondalen goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (38 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 37% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 37% of games (home games); they fail to score in 37% of games.
ODD Ballklubb goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (38 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 91% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 73% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Mjondalen 42% versus ODD Ballklubb 55%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Mjondalen 40% | ODD Ballklubb 58%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Mjondalen 1.21 xG and ODD Ballklubb 0.95 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Mjondalen attack 0.736 / defence 0.819 | ODD Ballklubb attack 1.028 / defence 1.019. League average goals — home 1.614 / away 1.130. Mjondalen's attack strength of 0.736 is below the league average — the 1.21 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 37 Mjondalen games / 38 ODD Ballklubb games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Mjondalen 39% | Draw 34% | ODD Ballklubb 26%. Fair-value odds: Mjondalen 2.56 | Draw 2.94 | ODD Ballklubb 3.85. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 34% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 37% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.16. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 63% — total xG of 2.16 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Mjondalen are the pick at 39% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 34% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Mjondalen if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.16 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 37% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 46% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Mjondalen 40% | ODD Ballklubb 60%.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Mjondalen vs ODD Ballklubb | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 10 | Venue: Consto Arena • Kick-off: Thursday 1 Jul 2021, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Mjondalen 39% | Draw 34% | ODD Ballklubb 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 37% | BTTS 46% | xG Mjondalen 1.21 / ODD Ballklubb 0.95 • Poisson strength factors: Mjondalen attack 0.736 / def 0.819 | ODD Ballklubb attack 1.028 / def 1.019 | league avg home 1.614 / away 1.130 • Poisson stance: Mjondalen (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.21
Mjondalen xG
Expected Goals
0.95
ODD Ballklubb xG
46%
BTTS
66%
Over 1.5
37%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Mjondalen vs ODD Ballklubb kick off?
Mjondalen vs ODD Ballklubb kicked off at 17:00 on Thursday 1 July 2021 at Consto Arena.
What was the final score in Mjondalen vs ODD Ballklubb?
Mjondalen 1 - 2 ODD Ballklubb.
Where is Mjondalen vs ODD Ballklubb being played?
The match is being played at Consto Arena.
What competition is Mjondalen vs ODD Ballklubb part of?
Mjondalen vs ODD Ballklubb is a Regular Season - 10 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Mjondalen vs ODD Ballklubb?
Our statistical model gives Mjondalen a 39% chance of winning, ODD Ballklubb a 26% chance, and a 34% chance of a draw — making Mjondalen the favourite.
Will both teams score in Mjondalen vs ODD Ballklubb?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Mjondalen and ODD Ballklubb will score (BTTS).
Will Mjondalen vs ODD Ballklubb have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 37%.
What is the head-to-head record between Mjondalen and ODD Ballklubb?
Record (2 meetings): Mjondalen 0W | Draws 0 | ODD Ballklubb 2W.
What form are Mjondalen and ODD Ballklubb in?
Mjondalen (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-D-L-D-D. ODD Ballklubb (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-L-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Mjondalen's attack rating (0.74) and ODD Ballklubb's defence rating (1.02), the model arrives at 1.21 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — ODD Ballklubb's attack (1.03x) against Mjondalen's defence (0.82x) — and the away total comes out at 0.95.
These ratings are built from 37/38 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.0%. Close behind: 0-0 (13.2%), 1-0 (12.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Mjondalen Win
39%
2.53
34%
2.93
26%
3.79
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.9%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
0 – 0
11.5%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.21
Mjondalen xG
Total xG
2.16
0.95
ODD Ballklubb xG
2.53
39%
Home win
2.93
34%
Draw
3.79
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
64%
Over 1.5
1.56
36%
Under 1.5
2.78
37%
Over 2.5
2.70
63%
Under 2.5
1.59
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.19
54%
BTTS No
1.84
Clean Sheet
39%
2.59
30%
3.35
Win to Nil
15%
6.57
8%
12.70
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.5 | 11.0 | 5.2 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.9 | 13.3 | 6.3 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.4 | 8.0 | 3.8 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.4 | 3.2 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Mjondalen vs ODD Ballklubb?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.0%.
How many goals are Mjondalen and ODD Ballklubb expected to score?
The model projects 1.21 expected goals for Mjondalen and 0.95 for ODD Ballklubb, a combined total of 2.16.
How confident is the prediction model for Mjondalen vs ODD Ballklubb?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 38 outings, Mjondalen have picked up 0.97 PPG on a 10W 7D 21L record — L-D-L-D-D across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Mjondalen, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
ODD Ballklubb's form line: 16W 7D 15L from 38 games, 1.45 PPG, last five W-L-D-W-W. The sample for ODD Ballklubb is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, ODD Ballklubb are the form team by 0.48 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Mjondalen.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Mjondalen have posted 1.26 PPG from 19 outings (7W 3D 9L).
On the road, ODD Ballklubb have gone 6W 4D 9L from 19 away games — 1.16 PPG when travelling.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Mjondalen are averaging 0.95 goals scored and 1.42 conceded per game recently; ODD Ballklubb are on 1.66 scored and 1.55 conceded.
Last 38 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Mjondalen
Early Season
ODD Ballklubb
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Mjondalen and ODD Ballklubb in coming into this match?
Mjondalen have gone 10W 7D 21L in their last 38 games (0.97 PPG), while ODD Ballklubb have gone 16W 7D 15L in their last 38 (1.45 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Mjondalen at home or ODD Ballklubb away?
Mjondalen's home record (1.26 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Mjondalen at home: 1.26 PPG; ODD Ballklubb away: 1.16 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 4 times since July 2020 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. It has been a while since the last meeting — 31 October 2021, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: ODD Ballklubb won 6-1 on 30 Aug 2020, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Mjondalen have gone 0W 0D 2L from 2 meetings on their own ground against ODD Ballklubb — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Mjondalen
1
Draws
3
ODD Ballklubb
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Mjondalen and ODD Ballklubb?
From 4 meetings on record, Mjondalen have won 0, ODD Ballklubb have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Mjondalen and ODD Ballklubb last play each other?
They last met on 31 October 2021, when ODD Ballklubb 2-2 Mjondalen.
Who has won more matches between Mjondalen and ODD Ballklubb?
ODD Ballklubb have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Mjondalen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 37% of the time.
ODD Ballklubb are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Mjondalen 37%, ODD Ballklubb 53% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 37% (Mjondalen) and 53% (ODD Ballklubb).
On the defensive side: Mjondalen keep a clean sheet in 37% of their matches; Mjondalen have failed to score in 32% of games; ODD Ballklubb in 26%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Mjondalen home games / ODD Ballklubb away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Mjondalen play ODD Ballklubb?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 37% of Mjondalen's recent matches and 53% of ODD Ballklubb's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Mjondalen vs ODD Ballklubb usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 37% of Mjondalen's recent games and 53% of ODD Ballklubb's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Mjondalen and ODD Ballklubb tend to score early?
Mjondalen have had a goal before half-time in 74% of their recent matches, ODD Ballklubb in 68% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as ODD Ballklubb defy the odds to beat Mjondalen 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
ODD Ballklubb beat Mjondalen 1-2 at Consto Arena, Regular Season - 10, in the Eliteserien. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Mjondalen 1.21 xG and ODD Ballklubb 0.95 xG, a combined 2.16. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. ODD Ballklubb outscored their 0.95 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Mjondalen attack 0.74 / defence 0.82 against ODD Ballklubb attack 1.03 / defence 1.02, drawn from 37/38 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Mjondalen 39% | Draw 34% | ODD Ballklubb 26%, with Mjondalen to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual ODD Ballklubb win had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 37%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 66% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Mjondalen 40%, ODD Ballklubb 58%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Mjondalen's trading profile (38 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did.
ODD Ballklubb's trading profile (38 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, ODD Ballklubb arrived the stronger side — 1.45 PPG against 0.97. Form held, and they took the win. Mjondalen (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.16 concession average — a leakier day than usual. ODD Ballklubb (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 1.84 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.