Lillestrom vs Stromsgodset – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Stromsgodset at 40%, yet other data sources diverge — this Lillestrom vs Stromsgodset fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Eliteserien encounter, Regular Season - 7 sees Stromsgodset travel to Åråsen Stadion to take on Lillestrom. The game is scheduled for Sunday 9 May 2021, 17:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Across all Eliteserien games this season, Stromsgodset have recorded 2W 2D 6L from 10 outings — 0.80 PPG. Last five: L D W W L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 2.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Stromsgodset away from home this season: 3W 3D 4L from 10 away games — 1.20 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Lillestrom 1.51 xG and Stromsgodset 1.63 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Lillestrom attack 0.850 / defence 1.150 | Stromsgodset attack 1.051 / defence 0.989. League average goals — home 1.798 / away 1.349. Data: 0 Lillestrom games / 30 Stromsgodset games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Lillestrom 34% | Draw 26% | Stromsgodset 40%. Fair-value odds: Lillestrom 2.94 | Draw 3.85 | Stromsgodset 2.50. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 61% | BTTS probability 64% | Total xG 3.14. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 61% — the 3.14 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 64% reflects that both xG figures (1.51 / 1.63) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Stromsgodset at 40% — marginal model lean. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Stromsgodset offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.14 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 61% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (0 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Lillestrom vs Stromsgodset | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 7 | Venue: Åråsen Stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 9 May 2021, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Lillestrom 34% | Draw 26% | Stromsgodset 40% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 61% | BTTS 64% | xG Lillestrom 1.51 / Stromsgodset 1.63 • Poisson strength factors: Lillestrom attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | Stromsgodset attack 1.051 / def 0.989 | league avg home 1.798 / away 1.349 • Poisson stance: Stromsgodset (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.51
Lillestrom xG
Expected Goals
1.63
Stromsgodset xG
64%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
61%
Over 2.5
38%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Lillestrom vs Stromsgodset kick off?
Lillestrom vs Stromsgodset kicked off at 17:00 on Sunday 9 May 2021 at Åråsen Stadion.
Where is Lillestrom vs Stromsgodset being played?
The match is being played at Åråsen Stadion.
What competition is Lillestrom vs Stromsgodset part of?
Lillestrom vs Stromsgodset is a Regular Season - 7 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Lillestrom vs Stromsgodset?
Our statistical model gives Lillestrom a 34% chance of winning, Stromsgodset a 40% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Stromsgodset the favourite.
Will both teams score in Lillestrom vs Stromsgodset?
Our model estimates a 64% probability that both Lillestrom and Stromsgodset will score (BTTS).
Will Lillestrom vs Stromsgodset have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 61%.
What is the head-to-head record between Lillestrom and Stromsgodset?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Lillestrom and Stromsgodset in?
Stromsgodset (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-D-W-W-L. Stromsgodset away split: 1.20 PPG from 10 | GF 1.70 / GA 1.70 | CS 1.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Lillestrom's attack at 0.85x the league average against Stromsgodset's defence at 0.99x — combine the two and it projects 1.51 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Stromsgodset's attack versus Lillestrom's defence, projects 1.63 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 0/30 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (8.7%), 2-1 (8.0%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Stromsgodset Win
34%
2.90
26%
3.87
40%
2.52
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.6%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.7%
Away win
2 – 1
8.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.51
Lillestrom xG
Total xG
3.14
1.63
Stromsgodset xG
2.90
34%
Home win
3.87
26%
Draw
2.52
40%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
61%
Over 2.5
1.64
39%
Under 2.5
2.56
38%
Over 3.5
2.63
62%
Under 3.5
1.61
21%
Over 4.5
4.76
79%
Under 4.5
1.27
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
64%
BTTS Yes
1.57
36%
BTTS No
2.76
Clean Sheet
20%
5.11
22%
4.53
Win to Nil
7%
14.81
9%
11.43
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.3 | 7.0 | 5.7 | 3.1 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 6.5 | 10.6 | 8.7 | 4.7 | 1.9 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 4.9 | 8.0 | 6.6 | 3.6 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 2.5 | 4.1 | 3.3 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.5 | 1.2 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Lillestrom vs Stromsgodset?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.0%.
How many goals are Lillestrom and Stromsgodset expected to score?
The model projects 1.51 expected goals for Lillestrom and 1.63 for Stromsgodset, a combined total of 3.14.
How confident is the prediction model for Lillestrom vs Stromsgodset?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Lillestrom
Pre-Season
Stromsgodset
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to May 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. It has been a while since the last meeting — 17 August 2024, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 27 Nov 2021, when Lillestrom won 4-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Lillestrom's record when hosting Stromsgodset specifically: 4W 0D 0L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
5
Lillestrom
0
Draws
3
Stromsgodset
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Lillestrom and Stromsgodset?
From 8 meetings on record, Lillestrom have won 5, Stromsgodset have won 3, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Lillestrom and Stromsgodset last play each other?
They last met on 17 August 2024, when Stromsgodset 3-2 Lillestrom.
Who has won more matches between Lillestrom and Stromsgodset?
Lillestrom have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 8 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Lillestrom home games / Stromsgodset away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Stalemate at Lillestrom's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Åråsen Stadion, Regular Season - 7, as Lillestrom and Stromsgodset drew 0-0 in the Eliteserien. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Lillestrom 1.51 xG and Stromsgodset 1.63 xG, a combined 3.14. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Lillestrom fell 1.5 short of their projected output. Stromsgodset landed 1.6 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Lillestrom attack 0.85 / defence 1.15 against Stromsgodset attack 1.05 / defence 0.99, drawn from 0/30 games (PrevSeason).
On the result, the model split it Lillestrom 34% | Draw 26% | Stromsgodset 40%, with Stromsgodset to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 61%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 83% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 64% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.