Lillestrom vs Sarpsborg 08 FF – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Lillestrom at 58% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Lillestrom vs Sarpsborg 08 FF encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Lillestrom and Sarpsborg 08 FF meet at Åråsen Stadion in Eliteserien, Regular Season - 19. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 14 August 2021 at 01:00 UTC.
Current Form
Lillestrom's overall Eliteserien record this term: 6W 4D 0L from 10 games (2.20 PPG). Last five: D D W W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.00 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Lillestrom, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Åråsen Stadion, Lillestrom have gone 5W 1D 1L this season (7 games, 2.29 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.57 goals scored and 0.86 conceded per game. 3 home clean sheets from 7 games (43%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 57% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Sarpsborg 08 FF (all games): 2W 2D 6L across 10 Eliteserien outings this term — 0.80 points per game. Last five: L D D L L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 2.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Sarpsborg 08 FF, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Sarpsborg 08 FF's away record: 2W 2D 6L from 10 road trips in Eliteserien this season (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game.
The form ledger tips toward Lillestrom. A 1.40 PPG lead over Sarpsborg 08 FF (2.20 vs 0.80) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 1 head-to-head meetings have produced 1 wins for Lillestrom, 0 for Sarpsborg 08 FF and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 28 Jul 2021, ended 2–0 with Lillestrom winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading
Lillestrom half-time and goal-timing data (14 games, 7 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 80% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (home games).
Sarpsborg 08 FF half-time and goal-timing data (14 games, 7 at away): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Lillestrom 71% and Sarpsborg 08 FF 50% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Lillestrom 50% | Sarpsborg 08 FF 36%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Lillestrom 1.80 xG and Sarpsborg 08 FF 0.82 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Lillestrom attack 0.879 / defence 0.875 | Sarpsborg 08 FF attack 0.759 / defence 1.161. League average goals — home 1.766 / away 1.242. Data: 14 Lillestrom games / 45 Sarpsborg 08 FF games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Lillestrom 58% | Draw 28% | Sarpsborg 08 FF 14%. Fair-value odds: Lillestrom 1.72 | Draw 3.57 | Sarpsborg 08 FF 7.14. The model has a clear lean to Lillestrom (58%) — a 44pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.63. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.63 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Lillestrom as the most likely outcome at 58% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 28% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.63 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 49% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 50% on No. Form rates are neutral: Lillestrom 57% | Sarpsborg 08 FF 50%.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Lillestrom vs Sarpsborg 08 FF | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 19 | Venue: Åråsen Stadion • Kick-off: Saturday 14 Aug 2021, 01:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Lillestrom 58% | Draw 28% | Sarpsborg 08 FF 14% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% | BTTS 50% | xG Lillestrom 1.80 / Sarpsborg 08 FF 0.82 • Poisson strength factors: Lillestrom attack 0.879 / def 0.875 | Sarpsborg 08 FF attack 0.759 / def 1.161 | league avg home 1.766 / away 1.242 • Poisson stance: Lillestrom (58%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.80
Lillestrom xG
Expected Goals
0.82
Sarpsborg 08 FF xG
50%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Lillestrom vs Sarpsborg 08 FF kick off?
Lillestrom vs Sarpsborg 08 FF kicked off at 01:00 on Saturday 14 August 2021 at Åråsen Stadion.
Where is Lillestrom vs Sarpsborg 08 FF being played?
The match is being played at Åråsen Stadion.
What competition is Lillestrom vs Sarpsborg 08 FF part of?
Lillestrom vs Sarpsborg 08 FF is a Regular Season - 19 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Lillestrom vs Sarpsborg 08 FF?
Our statistical model gives Lillestrom a 58% chance of winning, Sarpsborg 08 FF a 14% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Lillestrom the favourite.
Will both teams score in Lillestrom vs Sarpsborg 08 FF?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Lillestrom and Sarpsborg 08 FF will score (BTTS).
Will Lillestrom vs Sarpsborg 08 FF have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%.
What is the head-to-head record between Lillestrom and Sarpsborg 08 FF?
Record (1 meetings): Lillestrom 1W | Draws 0 | Sarpsborg 08 FF 0W.
What form are Lillestrom and Sarpsborg 08 FF in?
Lillestrom (all comps): 6W-4D-0L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-D-W-W-D. Sarpsborg 08 FF (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-D-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Lillestrom's attack rating (0.88) and Sarpsborg 08 FF's defence rating (1.16), the model arrives at 1.80 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Sarpsborg 08 FF's attack (0.76x) against Lillestrom's defence (0.88x) — and the away total comes out at 0.82.
These ratings are built from 14/45 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.1%. Close behind: 2-0 (11.7%), 1-0 (11.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Lillestrom Win
58%
1.73
28%
3.58
14%
7.09
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.0%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
11.7%
Home win
1 – 1
10.7%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.80
Lillestrom xG
Total xG
2.63
0.82
Sarpsborg 08 FF xG
1.73
58%
Home win
3.58
28%
Draw
7.09
14%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
2.02
50%
BTTS No
1.98
Clean Sheet
44%
2.28
16%
6.06
Win to Nil
25%
3.94
2%
42.96
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.2 | 6.0 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 13.0 | 10.7 | 4.4 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 11.7 | 9.7 | 4.0 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 7.1 | 5.8 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 3.2 | 2.6 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.1 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Lillestrom vs Sarpsborg 08 FF?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.1%.
How many goals are Lillestrom and Sarpsborg 08 FF expected to score?
The model projects 1.80 expected goals for Lillestrom and 0.82 for Sarpsborg 08 FF, a combined total of 2.63.
How confident is the prediction model for Lillestrom vs Sarpsborg 08 FF?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 58%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Lillestrom's recent record stands at 7W 4D 3L from 14 games, a 1.79 PPG return, with D-D-W-W-D in the last five. The sample for Lillestrom is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Sarpsborg 08 FF, meanwhile, have gone 3W 4D 7L across 14 games — 0.93 PPG, with L-D-D-L-L in their last five. The sample for Sarpsborg 08 FF is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Lillestrom by 0.86 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Sarpsborg 08 FF heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Lillestrom have managed 5W 1D 1L from 7 games — 2.29 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.79 PPG overall — Lillestrom are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Sarpsborg 08 FF's away record stands at 2W 0D 5L across 7 trips, a 0.86 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Lillestrom come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Lillestrom are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.21 conceded per game recently; Sarpsborg 08 FF are on 0.86 scored and 1.57 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Lillestrom have seen both teams score in 71% of their recent games.
Last 14 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Lillestrom
Blended
Sarpsborg 08 FF
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Lillestrom and Sarpsborg 08 FF in coming into this match?
Lillestrom have gone 7W 4D 3L in their last 14 games (1.79 PPG), while Sarpsborg 08 FF have gone 3W 4D 7L in their last 14 (0.93 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Lillestrom at home or Sarpsborg 08 FF away?
Lillestrom's home record (2.29 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Lillestrom at home: 2.29 PPG; Sarpsborg 08 FF away: 0.86 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 9 times since July 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. They last met on 3 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Lillestrom won 4-0 on 3 May 2026, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Lillestrom have gone 3W 1D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Sarpsborg 08 FF — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 9 Meetings
4
Lillestrom
1
Draws
4
Sarpsborg 08 FF
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Lillestrom and Sarpsborg 08 FF?
From 9 meetings on record, Lillestrom have won 4, Sarpsborg 08 FF have won 4, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Lillestrom and Sarpsborg 08 FF last play each other?
They last met on 3 May 2026, when Lillestrom 4-0 Sarpsborg 08 FF.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Lillestrom are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Sarpsborg 08 FF see a goal before the break in 57% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Lillestrom 57%, Sarpsborg 08 FF 43% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 43% (Lillestrom) and 43% (Sarpsborg 08 FF).
On the defensive side: Lillestrom keep a clean sheet in 43% of their matches; Sarpsborg 08 FF in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Lillestrom home games / Sarpsborg 08 FF away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Lillestrom play Sarpsborg 08 FF?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 57% of Lillestrom's recent matches and 43% of Sarpsborg 08 FF's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Lillestrom vs Sarpsborg 08 FF usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 43% of Lillestrom's recent games and 43% of Sarpsborg 08 FF's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Lillestrom and Sarpsborg 08 FF tend to score early?
Lillestrom have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, Sarpsborg 08 FF in 57% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Lillestrom's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Åråsen Stadion, Regular Season - 19, as Lillestrom and Sarpsborg 08 FF drew 0-0 in the Eliteserien. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Lillestrom 1.80 xG and Sarpsborg 08 FF 0.82 xG, a combined 2.63. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Lillestrom fell 1.8 short of their projected output. Sarpsborg 08 FF landed 0.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Lillestrom attack 0.88 / defence 0.88 against Sarpsborg 08 FF attack 0.76 / defence 1.16, drawn from 14/45 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Lillestrom 58% | Draw 28% | Sarpsborg 08 FF 14%, with Lillestrom to win its most likely call at 58%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 76% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Lillestrom 50%, Sarpsborg 08 FF 36%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Lillestrom's trading profile (14 games, 7 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 71% of their matches — today it did not.
Sarpsborg 08 FF's trading profile (14 games, 7 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 29% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Lillestrom arrived the stronger side — 1.79 PPG against 0.93. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Lillestrom (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.57 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 0.86 average — tighter than their form line. Sarpsborg 08 FF (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.86 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 2.14 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.