Kristiansund BK 3-1 Sandefjord – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Kristiansund BK at 43%, yet other data sources diverge — this Kristiansund BK vs Sandefjord fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Kristiansund BK and Sandefjord meet at Kristiansund Stadion in Eliteserien, Regular Season - 21. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 4 September 2022 at 17:00 UTC.
Current Form
Kristiansund BK's overall Eliteserien record this term: 2W 3D 5L from 10 games (0.90 PPG). Last five: D L L D W. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Kristiansund BK, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Kristiansund BK have posted 2W 3D 5L at Kristiansund Stadion — 0.90 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Sandefjord have collected 0.90 PPG across 10 Eliteserien outings this season: 2W 3D 5L. Last five: L D L L D. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 2.50. Conceding 2.50 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Sandefjord, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Sandefjord's away record: 5W 0D 5L from 10 road trips in Eliteserien this season (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.50 exceeds their overall 0.90 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
A near-identical PPG reading — 0.90 for Kristiansund BK, 0.90 for Sandefjord — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 4 head-to-head meetings have produced 2 wins for Kristiansund BK, 2 for Sandefjord and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
The 4 previous meetings have averaged 2.8 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 27 Jul 2022, ended 0–2 with Sandefjord winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Kristiansund BK — key trading statistics (50 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 87% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
Sandefjord — key trading statistics (50 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 44%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Kristiansund BK 52% versus Sandefjord 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Kristiansund BK 56% | Sandefjord 72%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Kristiansund BK 1.90 xG and Sandefjord 1.71 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Kristiansund BK attack 0.927 / defence 1.281 | Sandefjord attack 1.003 / defence 1.208. League average goals — home 1.696 / away 1.334. Sandefjord bring a strong defensive rating of 1.208 — this is suppressing Kristiansund BK's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 50 Kristiansund BK games / 50 Sandefjord games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Kristiansund BK 43% | Draw 22% | Sandefjord 35%. Fair-value odds: Kristiansund BK 2.33 | Draw 4.55 | Sandefjord 2.86. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 22% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 70% | BTTS probability 70% | Total xG 3.61. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 70% — a total xG of 3.61 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 70% reflects that both xG figures (1.90 / 1.71) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Kristiansund BK are the pick at 43% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 22% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Kristiansund BK if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.61 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 70% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 3.5 goals per game and H2H averaging 2.8 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 70% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Kristiansund BK 80% | Sandefjord 40% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Kristiansund BK vs Sandefjord | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 21 | Venue: Kristiansund Stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 4 Sep 2022, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Kristiansund BK 43% | Draw 22% | Sandefjord 35% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 70% | BTTS 70% | xG Kristiansund BK 1.90 / Sandefjord 1.71 • Poisson strength factors: Kristiansund BK attack 0.927 / def 1.281 | Sandefjord attack 1.003 / def 1.208 | league avg home 1.696 / away 1.334 • Poisson stance: Kristiansund BK (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.90
Kristiansund BK xG
Expected Goals
1.71
Sandefjord xG
70%
BTTS
88%
Over 1.5
70%
Over 2.5
49%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Kristiansund BK vs Sandefjord kick off?
Kristiansund BK vs Sandefjord kicked off at 17:00 on Sunday 4 September 2022 at Kristiansund Stadion.
What was the final score in Kristiansund BK vs Sandefjord?
Kristiansund BK 3 - 1 Sandefjord.
Where is Kristiansund BK vs Sandefjord being played?
The match is being played at Kristiansund Stadion.
What competition is Kristiansund BK vs Sandefjord part of?
Kristiansund BK vs Sandefjord is a Regular Season - 21 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Kristiansund BK vs Sandefjord?
Our statistical model gives Kristiansund BK a 43% chance of winning, Sandefjord a 35% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Kristiansund BK the favourite.
Will both teams score in Kristiansund BK vs Sandefjord?
Our model estimates a 70% probability that both Kristiansund BK and Sandefjord will score (BTTS).
Will Kristiansund BK vs Sandefjord have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 70%.
What is the head-to-head record between Kristiansund BK and Sandefjord?
Record (4 meetings): Kristiansund BK 2W | Draws 0 | Sandefjord 2W.
What form are Kristiansund BK and Sandefjord in?
Kristiansund BK (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.70 | L5 D-L-L-D-W. Sandefjord (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 2.50 | L5 L-D-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Kristiansund BK's attacking strength (0.93x league average) is weighed against Sandefjord's defensive record (1.21x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.90. Flip it around — Sandefjord's attack (1.00x) against Kristiansund BK's defence (1.28x) — and the away total comes out at 1.71.
These ratings are built from 50/50 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 9.9%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.3%), 1-2 (7.5%). Together the top three scorelines make up 26% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Kristiansund BK Win
43%
2.33
22%
4.59
35%
2.83
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
8.8%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.3%
Home win
1 – 2
7.5%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.90
Kristiansund BK xG
Total xG
3.61
1.71
Sandefjord xG
2.33
43%
Home win
4.59
22%
Draw
2.83
35%
Away win
Goals Markets
88%
Over 1.5
1.14
12%
Under 1.5
8.33
70%
Over 2.5
1.43
30%
Under 2.5
3.33
49%
Over 3.5
2.04
51%
Under 3.5
1.96
30%
Over 4.5
3.33
70%
Under 4.5
1.43
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
70%
BTTS Yes
1.43
30%
BTTS No
3.30
Clean Sheet
18%
5.55
15%
6.68
Win to Nil
8%
12.94
5%
18.90
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.7 | 4.6 | 4.0 | 2.3 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 5.1 | 8.8 | 7.5 | 4.3 | 1.8 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 4.9 | 8.3 | 7.1 | 4.1 | 1.7 | 0.6 |
| 3 | 3.1 | 5.3 | 4.5 | 2.6 | 1.1 | 0.4 |
| 4 | 1.5 | 2.5 | 2.1 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 5 | 0.6 | 1.0 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Kristiansund BK vs Sandefjord?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.9%.
How many goals are Kristiansund BK and Sandefjord expected to score?
The model projects 1.90 expected goals for Kristiansund BK and 1.71 for Sandefjord, a combined total of 3.61.
How confident is the prediction model for Kristiansund BK vs Sandefjord?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 50 outings, Kristiansund BK have picked up 1.12 PPG on a 16W 8D 26L record — D-L-L-D-W across the most recent five. The sample for Kristiansund BK is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Sandefjord's form line: 16W 10D 24L from 50 games, 1.16 PPG, last five L-D-L-L-D. The sample for Sandefjord is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.12 PPG for Kristiansund BK against 1.16 for Sandefjord. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Kristiansund BK have posted 1.58 PPG from 24 outings (11W 5D 8L). That's noticeably better than their 1.12 PPG overall — Kristiansund BK are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Sandefjord have gone 8W 1D 15L from 24 away games — 1.04 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Kristiansund BK come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Kristiansund BK are averaging 1.18 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game recently; Sandefjord are on 1.42 scored and 1.92 conceded.
Last 50 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Kristiansund BK
Blended
Sandefjord
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Kristiansund BK and Sandefjord in coming into this match?
Kristiansund BK have gone 16W 8D 26L in their last 50 games (1.12 PPG), while Sandefjord have gone 16W 10D 24L in their last 50 (1.16 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Kristiansund BK at home or Sandefjord away?
Kristiansund BK's home record (1.58 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Kristiansund BK at home: 1.58 PPG; Sandefjord away: 1.04 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to August 2020 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 5 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. They last met on 10 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Sandefjord won 6-0 on 20 Jul 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Kristiansund BK have gone 3W 1D 0L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Sandefjord — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Kristiansund BK
1
Draws
5
Sandefjord
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Kristiansund BK and Sandefjord?
From 10 meetings on record, Kristiansund BK have won 4, Sandefjord have won 5, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Kristiansund BK and Sandefjord last play each other?
They last met on 10 May 2026, when Sandefjord 2-0 Kristiansund BK.
Who has won more matches between Kristiansund BK and Sandefjord?
Sandefjord have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Kristiansund BK are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Sandefjord are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Kristiansund BK 62%, Sandefjord 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 54% for Kristiansund BK and 75% for Sandefjord. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 42% and 42% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Sandefjord in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Kristiansund BK home games / Sandefjord away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Kristiansund BK play Sandefjord?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 62% of Kristiansund BK's games and 50% of Sandefjord's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Kristiansund BK vs Sandefjord usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 54% of Kristiansund BK's matches and 75% of Sandefjord's.
Do Kristiansund BK and Sandefjord tend to score early?
Kristiansund BK have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Sandefjord in 83% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Kristiansund BK cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Sandefjord.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Kristiansund BK beat Sandefjord 3-1 at Kristiansund Stadion, Regular Season - 21, in the Eliteserien. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Kristiansund BK 1.90 xG and Sandefjord 1.71 xG, a combined 3.61. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Kristiansund BK beat their projection by 1.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Kristiansund BK attack 0.93 / defence 1.28 against Sandefjord attack 1.00 / defence 1.21, drawn from 50/50 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Kristiansund BK 43% | Draw 22% | Sandefjord 35%, with Kristiansund BK to win its most likely call at 43%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 70%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 88% and landed. Over 3.5 was 49% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 70% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 64% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Kristiansund BK 56%, Sandefjord 72%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Kristiansund BK's trading profile (50 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.
Sandefjord's trading profile (50 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Kristiansund BK 1.12 PPG, Sandefjord 1.16 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Kristiansund BK win broke the near-deadlock. Kristiansund BK (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.62 average — above their attacking norm. Sandefjord (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 2.17 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.