Kristiansund BK vs Rosenborg – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Kristiansund BK at 44%, yet other data sources diverge — this Kristiansund BK vs Rosenborg fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Kristiansund BK host Rosenborg at Kristiansund Stadion in Eliteserien, Regular Season - 19. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 14 August 2021 at 01:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Eliteserien games this season, Kristiansund BK have gone 5W 2D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.70 PPG return. Last five: D W L W L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Kristiansund BK, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Kristiansund Stadion, Kristiansund BK have gone 7W 1D 2L this season (10 games, 2.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 2.20 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.70 — Kristiansund BK are significantly better at Kristiansund Stadion than their overall form suggests.
Rosenborg — All Games: 4W 2D 4L from 10 Eliteserien fixtures this season — 1.40 PPG. Last five: L D D W W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.40. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Rosenborg, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Rosenborg have gone 2W 4D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.70 PPG (Kristiansund BK) versus 1.40 (Rosenborg). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Kristiansund BK, 1 for Rosenborg and 1 shared spoils from 2 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 0.5 per contest from 2 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 10 Jul 2021, ended 0–1 with Rosenborg winning.
With a balanced win record and just 0.5 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Patterns
Kristiansund BK in-play and half-time data (44 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games).
Rosenborg in-play and half-time data (44 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 58% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Kristiansund BK 66% and Rosenborg 57% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Kristiansund BK 57% | Rosenborg 64%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Kristiansund BK 1.56 xG and Rosenborg 1.17 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Kristiansund BK attack 0.932 / defence 0.842 | Rosenborg attack 1.117 / defence 0.950. League average goals — home 1.766 / away 1.242. Data: 44 Kristiansund BK games / 44 Rosenborg games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Kristiansund BK 44% | Draw 31% | Rosenborg 26%. Fair-value odds: Kristiansund BK 2.27 | Draw 3.23 | Rosenborg 3.85. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 2.73. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.73 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Kristiansund BK as the most likely outcome at 44% — marginal model lean. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Kristiansund BK offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.73 combined xG gives a 51% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 57% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Kristiansund BK 50% | Rosenborg 70% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Kristiansund BK vs Rosenborg | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 19 | Venue: Kristiansund Stadion • Kick-off: Saturday 14 Aug 2021, 01:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Kristiansund BK 44% | Draw 31% | Rosenborg 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% | BTTS 57% | xG Kristiansund BK 1.56 / Rosenborg 1.17 • Poisson strength factors: Kristiansund BK attack 0.932 / def 0.842 | Rosenborg attack 1.117 / def 0.950 | league avg home 1.766 / away 1.242 • Poisson stance: Kristiansund BK (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.56
Kristiansund BK xG
Expected Goals
1.17
Rosenborg xG
57%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Kristiansund BK vs Rosenborg kick off?
Kristiansund BK vs Rosenborg kicked off at 01:00 on Saturday 14 August 2021 at Kristiansund Stadion.
Where is Kristiansund BK vs Rosenborg being played?
The match is being played at Kristiansund Stadion.
What competition is Kristiansund BK vs Rosenborg part of?
Kristiansund BK vs Rosenborg is a Regular Season - 19 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Kristiansund BK vs Rosenborg?
Our statistical model gives Kristiansund BK a 44% chance of winning, Rosenborg a 26% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Kristiansund BK the favourite.
Will both teams score in Kristiansund BK vs Rosenborg?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Kristiansund BK and Rosenborg will score (BTTS).
Will Kristiansund BK vs Rosenborg have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%.
What is the head-to-head record between Kristiansund BK and Rosenborg?
Record (2 meetings): Kristiansund BK 0W | Draws 1 | Rosenborg 1W.
What form are Kristiansund BK and Rosenborg in?
Kristiansund BK (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-W-L-W-L. Rosenborg (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-D-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Kristiansund BK's attacking strength (0.93x league average) is weighed against Rosenborg's defensive record (0.95x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.56. The same calculation in reverse, Rosenborg's attack versus Kristiansund BK's defence, projects 1.17 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 44/44 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.4%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.3%), 1-0 (8.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Kristiansund BK Win
44%
2.30
31%
3.24
26%
3.91
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.9%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.2%
Home win
2 – 1
9.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.56
Kristiansund BK xG
Total xG
2.73
1.17
Rosenborg xG
2.30
44%
Home win
3.24
31%
Draw
3.91
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.74
43%
BTTS No
2.35
Clean Sheet
31%
3.22
21%
4.78
Win to Nil
14%
7.38
5%
18.70
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.5 | 7.6 | 4.4 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.2 | 11.9 | 6.9 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.0 | 9.3 | 5.4 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.2 | 4.8 | 2.8 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.6 | 1.9 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Kristiansund BK vs Rosenborg?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.4%.
How many goals are Kristiansund BK and Rosenborg expected to score?
The model projects 1.56 expected goals for Kristiansund BK and 1.17 for Rosenborg, a combined total of 2.73.
How confident is the prediction model for Kristiansund BK vs Rosenborg?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Kristiansund BK's recent record stands at 19W 14D 11L from 44 games, a 1.61 PPG return, with D-W-L-W-L in the last five. The sample for Kristiansund BK is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Rosenborg, meanwhile, have gone 21W 11D 12L across 44 games — 1.68 PPG, with L-D-D-W-W in their last five. The sample for Rosenborg is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Kristiansund BK on 1.61 PPG, Rosenborg on 1.68. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Kristiansund BK have managed 12W 5D 5L from 22 games — 1.86 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Rosenborg's away record stands at 7W 7D 8L across 22 trips, a 1.27 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.68 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Rosenborg's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Kristiansund BK come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Kristiansund BK are averaging 1.64 goals scored and 1.36 conceded per game recently; Rosenborg are on 1.73 scored and 1.23 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Kristiansund BK have seen both teams score in 66% of their recent games.
Last 44 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Kristiansund BK
Blended
Rosenborg
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Kristiansund BK and Rosenborg in coming into this match?
Kristiansund BK have gone 19W 14D 11L in their last 44 games (1.61 PPG), while Rosenborg have gone 21W 11D 12L in their last 44 (1.68 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Kristiansund BK at home or Rosenborg away?
Kristiansund BK's home record (1.86 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Kristiansund BK at home: 1.86 PPG; Rosenborg away: 1.27 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2020. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. The two were last together as recently as 12 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 1 Dec 2024, when Rosenborg won 0-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Kristiansund BK's record when hosting Rosenborg specifically: 2W 2D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Kristiansund BK
3
Draws
5
Rosenborg
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Kristiansund BK and Rosenborg?
From 10 meetings on record, Kristiansund BK have won 2, Rosenborg have won 5, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Kristiansund BK and Rosenborg last play each other?
They last met on 12 July 2026, when Rosenborg 3-0 Kristiansund BK.
Who has won more matches between Kristiansund BK and Rosenborg?
Rosenborg have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Kristiansund BK are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Rosenborg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Kristiansund BK 64%, Rosenborg 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 54% (Kristiansund BK) and 59% (Rosenborg). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 46% and 23% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Kristiansund BK keep a clean sheet in 32% of their matches; Rosenborg in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Kristiansund BK home games / Rosenborg away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Kristiansund BK play Rosenborg?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 64% of Kristiansund BK's games and 54% of Rosenborg's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Kristiansund BK vs Rosenborg usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 54% of Kristiansund BK's matches and 59% of Rosenborg's.
Do Kristiansund BK and Rosenborg tend to score early?
Kristiansund BK have had a goal before half-time in 64% of their recent matches, Rosenborg in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Kristiansund BK's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Kristiansund Stadion, Regular Season - 19, as Kristiansund BK and Rosenborg drew 0-0 in the Eliteserien. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Kristiansund BK 1.56 xG and Rosenborg 1.17 xG, a combined 2.73. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Kristiansund BK fell 1.6 short of their projected output. Rosenborg landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Kristiansund BK attack 0.93 / defence 0.84 against Rosenborg attack 1.12 / defence 0.95, drawn from 44/44 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Kristiansund BK 44% | Draw 31% | Rosenborg 26%, with Kristiansund BK to win its most likely call at 44%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 79% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Kristiansund BK 57%, Rosenborg 64%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Kristiansund BK's trading profile (44 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 66% of their matches — today it did not.
Rosenborg's trading profile (44 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 25% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Kristiansund BK 1.61 PPG, Rosenborg 1.68 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Kristiansund BK (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.00 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.41 average — tighter than their form line. Rosenborg (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.23 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.36 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.