Kristiansund BK 0-0 Rosenborg – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Rosenborg at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this Kristiansund BK vs Rosenborg fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Kristiansund BK host Rosenborg at Kristiansund Stadion in Eliteserien, Regular Season - 21. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 18 October 2020 at 17:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Eliteserien games this season, Kristiansund BK have gone 7W 1D 2L from 10 outings — a 2.20 PPG return. Last five: W L W D W. They are averaging 2.30 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Kristiansund BK, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Kristiansund Stadion, Kristiansund BK have gone 4W 3D 2L this season (9 games, 1.67 PPG). They are averaging 2.67 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 89% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.67 lags behind their overall 2.20 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Kristiansund Stadion this season.
Rosenborg — All Games: 7W 2D 1L from 10 Eliteserien fixtures this season — 2.30 PPG. Last five: D D W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.70 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Rosenborg, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Rosenborg have gone 4W 2D 3L from 9 away fixtures this term (1.56 PPG). Away from home they average 1.44 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.56 is notably below their overall 2.30 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form comparison is too close to call — 2.20 PPG (Kristiansund BK) versus 2.30 (Rosenborg). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
Trading Patterns
Kristiansund BK in-play and half-time data (20 games, 9 at home): they score before half-time in 56% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 71% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 89% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 78% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
Rosenborg in-play and half-time data (20 games, 9 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Kristiansund BK 85% and Rosenborg 60% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Kristiansund BK 75% | Rosenborg 70%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Kristiansund BK 1.76 xG and Rosenborg 1.78 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Kristiansund BK attack 1.180 / defence 1.436 | Rosenborg attack 0.891 / defence 1.008. League average goals — home 1.483 / away 1.391. Data: 20 Kristiansund BK games / 20 Rosenborg games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Kristiansund BK 39% | Draw 22% | Rosenborg 39%. Fair-value odds: Kristiansund BK 2.56 | Draw 4.55 | Rosenborg 2.56. The draw (22%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 69% | BTTS probability 69% | Total xG 3.54. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 69% — a total xG of 3.54 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 69% reflects that both xG figures (1.76 / 1.78) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 22% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 39% and away win at 39% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.54 combined xG gives a 69% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.4 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 69% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Kristiansund BK 89% | Rosenborg 44% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 39% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Kristiansund BK vs Rosenborg | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 21 | Venue: Kristiansund Stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 18 Oct 2020, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Kristiansund BK 39% | Draw 22% | Rosenborg 39% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 69% | BTTS 69% | xG Kristiansund BK 1.76 / Rosenborg 1.78 • Poisson strength factors: Kristiansund BK attack 1.180 / def 1.436 | Rosenborg attack 0.891 / def 1.008 | league avg home 1.483 / away 1.391 • Poisson stance: Draw (22%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.76
Kristiansund BK xG
Expected Goals
1.78
Rosenborg xG
69%
BTTS
87%
Over 1.5
69%
Over 2.5
47%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Kristiansund BK vs Rosenborg kick off?
Kristiansund BK vs Rosenborg kicked off at 17:00 on Sunday 18 October 2020 at Kristiansund Stadion.
What was the final score in Kristiansund BK vs Rosenborg?
Kristiansund BK 0 - 0 Rosenborg.
Where is Kristiansund BK vs Rosenborg being played?
The match is being played at Kristiansund Stadion.
What competition is Kristiansund BK vs Rosenborg part of?
Kristiansund BK vs Rosenborg is a Regular Season - 21 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Kristiansund BK vs Rosenborg?
Our statistical model gives Kristiansund BK a 39% chance of winning, Rosenborg a 39% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Kristiansund BK vs Rosenborg?
Our model estimates a 69% probability that both Kristiansund BK and Rosenborg will score (BTTS).
Will Kristiansund BK vs Rosenborg have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 69%.
What is the head-to-head record between Kristiansund BK and Rosenborg?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Kristiansund BK and Rosenborg in?
Kristiansund BK (all comps): 7W-1D-2L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 2.30 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-L-W-D-W. Rosenborg (all comps): 7W-2D-1L in 10 | 2.30 PPG | GF 2.70 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-D-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Kristiansund BK's attacking strength (1.18x league average) is weighed against Rosenborg's defensive record (1.01x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.76. The same calculation in reverse, Rosenborg's attack versus Kristiansund BK's defence, projects 1.78 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 20/20 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 10.3%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.1%), 2-1 (8.0%). Together the top three scorelines make up 26% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Rosenborg Win
39%
2.59
22%
4.50
39%
2.55
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.1%
Away win
2 – 1
8.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.76
Kristiansund BK xG
Total xG
3.54
1.78
Rosenborg xG
2.59
39%
Home win
4.50
22%
Draw
2.55
39%
Away win
Goals Markets
87%
Over 1.5
1.15
13%
Under 1.5
7.69
69%
Over 2.5
1.45
31%
Under 2.5
3.23
47%
Over 3.5
2.13
53%
Under 3.5
1.89
28%
Over 4.5
3.57
72%
Under 4.5
1.39
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
69%
BTTS Yes
1.45
31%
BTTS No
3.22
Clean Sheet
17%
5.92
17%
5.83
Win to Nil
7%
15.35
7%
14.87
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.9 | 5.2 | 4.6 | 2.7 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 5.1 | 9.1 | 8.1 | 4.8 | 2.1 | 0.8 |
| 2 | 4.5 | 8.0 | 7.1 | 4.2 | 1.9 | 0.7 |
| 3 | 2.6 | 4.7 | 4.2 | 2.5 | 1.1 | 0.4 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 2.1 | 1.8 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Kristiansund BK vs Rosenborg?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.3%.
How many goals are Kristiansund BK and Rosenborg expected to score?
The model projects 1.76 expected goals for Kristiansund BK and 1.78 for Rosenborg, a combined total of 3.54.
How confident is the prediction model for Kristiansund BK vs Rosenborg?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Kristiansund BK's recent record stands at 9W 7D 4L from 20 games, a 1.70 PPG return, with W-L-W-D-W in the last five. The sample for Kristiansund BK is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Rosenborg, meanwhile, have gone 11W 5D 4L across 20 games — 1.90 PPG, with D-D-W-W-W in their last five. The sample for Rosenborg is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Kristiansund BK on 1.70 PPG, Rosenborg on 1.90. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Kristiansund BK have managed 4W 3D 2L from 9 games — 1.67 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Rosenborg's away record stands at 4W 2D 3L across 9 trips, a 1.56 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
Kristiansund BK are averaging 2.05 goals scored and 1.45 conceded per game recently; Rosenborg are on 2.00 scored and 1.05 conceded. Both sides have been scoring freely, which tends to support the goals markets running hot in this fixture.
On BTTS specifically: Kristiansund BK have seen both teams score in 85% of their recent games; Rosenborg in 60%.
Last 20 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Kristiansund BK
Blended
Rosenborg
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Kristiansund BK and Rosenborg in coming into this match?
Kristiansund BK have gone 9W 7D 4L in their last 20 games (1.70 PPG), while Rosenborg have gone 11W 5D 4L in their last 20 (1.90 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Kristiansund BK at home or Rosenborg away?
Kristiansund BK's home record (1.67 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Kristiansund BK at home: 1.67 PPG; Rosenborg away: 1.56 PPG.
Have Kristiansund BK or Rosenborg been keeping clean sheets recently?
Kristiansund BK have kept a clean sheet in 15% of their recent games, Rosenborg in 30%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2020. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. The two were last together as recently as 12 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 1 Dec 2024, when Rosenborg won 0-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Kristiansund BK's record when hosting Rosenborg specifically: 2W 2D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Kristiansund BK
3
Draws
5
Rosenborg
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Kristiansund BK and Rosenborg?
From 10 meetings on record, Kristiansund BK have won 2, Rosenborg have won 5, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Kristiansund BK and Rosenborg last play each other?
They last met on 12 July 2026, when Rosenborg 3-0 Kristiansund BK.
Who has won more matches between Kristiansund BK and Rosenborg?
Rosenborg have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Kristiansund BK see a goal before the break in 56% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Rosenborg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Kristiansund BK at 89%, Rosenborg at 44%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 78% for Kristiansund BK and 56% for Rosenborg. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 67% and 11% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Rosenborg in 33%; Rosenborg in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Kristiansund BK home games / Rosenborg away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Kristiansund BK play Rosenborg?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 89% of Kristiansund BK's games and 44% of Rosenborg's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Kristiansund BK vs Rosenborg usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 78% of Kristiansund BK's matches and 56% of Rosenborg's.
Do Kristiansund BK and Rosenborg tend to score early?
Kristiansund BK have had a goal before half-time in 56% of their recent matches, Rosenborg in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Kristiansund BK's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Kristiansund BK and Rosenborg finished level at 0-0 at Kristiansund Stadion, Regular Season - 21, in the Eliteserien. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Kristiansund BK 1.76 xG and Rosenborg 1.78 xG, a combined 3.54. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Kristiansund BK fell 1.8 short of their projected output. Rosenborg landed 1.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Kristiansund BK attack 1.18 / defence 1.44 against Rosenborg attack 0.89 / defence 1.01, drawn from 20/20 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Kristiansund BK 39% | Draw 22% | Rosenborg 39%, with Kristiansund BK to win its most likely call at 39%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 22% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 69%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 87% and missed. Over 3.5 was 47% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 69% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 72% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Kristiansund BK 75%, Rosenborg 70%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 72%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Kristiansund BK's trading profile (20 games, 9 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 85% of their matches — today it did not.
Rosenborg's trading profile (20 games, 9 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Kristiansund BK 1.70 PPG, Rosenborg 1.90 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Kristiansund BK (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.67 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.78 average — tighter than their form line. Rosenborg (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.44 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.