Kristiansund BK 2-4 Bodo/Glimt – Result & Analysis

Poisson model favours Bodo/Glimt (65%) — recent form and the head-to-head data both point the same way as Kristiansund BK face Bodo/Glimt.

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Fixture Analysis

Kristiansund BK welcome Bodo/Glimt to Nordmøre stadion in Eliteserien (matchday 7). Kick-off is Sunday 12 May 2024 at 14:30 UK time.

Recent Form

Across their last 10 games, Kristiansund BK have gone 2W 4D 4L — a 1.00 PPG return. Last five: W D D L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 2.00 conceded. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).

Kristiansund BK's form when playing at home: 4W 3D 3L across their last 10 home games (1.50 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.50 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.00 — Kristiansund BK are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.

Bodo/Glimt — last 10 games: 8W 1D 1L — 2.50 PPG. Last five: W W W L W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.60 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.

When travelling, Bodo/Glimt have posted 5W 2D 3L from their last 10 away outings — 1.70 PPG. They are averaging 2.60 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.70 is notably below their overall 2.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.

Form points away from home here. Bodo/Glimt's 2.50 PPG return is 1.50 points per game ahead of Kristiansund BK's 1.00 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.

Both teams have scored in at least 70% of each side's games (from Kristiansund BK's last 10 home games and Bodo/Glimt's last 10 away games). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.

Head to Head

Bodo/Glimt have tended to come out on top in this fixture, winning 4 of the 4 H2H matches we hold against 0 for Kristiansund BK.

Goals have been a feature of this fixture — the 4 H2H matches in our data averaged 3.0 per game, which gives Over 2.5 a solid head-to-head foundation. The most recent of those, on 23 Oct 2022, ended Kristiansund BK 0–5 Bodo/Glimt — a Bodo/Glimt win.

The H2H data backs the away side. Bodo/Glimt have won 4 of 4 H2H matches, and at 3.0 goals per game the goals market also points upward — the away win and Over 2.5 combination has a head-to-head case.

Trading Patterns

Kristiansund BK in-play and half-time data (last 32 games, 16 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 88% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 83% of those occasions; of the 8 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 50%; BTTS occurs in 69% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 69% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 41%; they fail to score in 31% of games.

Bodo/Glimt in-play and half-time data (last 32 games, 16 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 88% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 100% of those occasions; they lead at the break 53% of the time; of the 7 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 57%; BTTS occurs in 69% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 59%.

From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Kristiansund BK 59% and Bodo/Glimt 62% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Kristiansund BK 59% | Bodo/Glimt 72%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Kristiansund BK surrender their half-time lead 50% of the time, while Bodo/Glimt have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 57% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Kristiansund BK 0.83 xG and Bodo/Glimt 2.00 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Kristiansund BK attack 0.865 / defence 0.960 | Bodo/Glimt attack 1.564 / defence 0.818. League average goals — home 1.181 / away 1.332. Bodo/Glimt have an above-average attack rating of 1.564, which lifts their away xG to 2.00. Data: built from Kristiansund BK's last 6 games and Bodo/Glimt's last 36.

Result probabilities: Kristiansund BK 15% | Draw 21% | Bodo/Glimt 65%. Fair-value odds: Kristiansund BK 6.75 | Draw 4.85 | Bodo/Glimt 1.55. The model has a clear lean to Bodo/Glimt (65%) — a 44pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS Yes probability 49% | Total xG 2.83. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.83 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS No at 51% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.

Our Verdict

Poisson rates Bodo/Glimt as the most likely outcome at 65% — clear model lean. Recent form and the head-to-head data both align with the Poisson read — multi-source corroboration increases confidence in this selection. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 21% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.

On the goals line, Poisson's 2.83 combined xG gives a 54% probability to Over 2.5 — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Kristiansund BK's last 10 home games and Bodo/Glimt's last 10 away games) averaging 4.0 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 3.0 goals per game across 4 H2H matches.

Poisson assigns a 51% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data — both teams scored in: Kristiansund BK 70% (last 10 home games) | Bodo/Glimt 70% (last 10 away games), a notable divergence.

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