Kristiansund BK 2-4 Bodo/Glimt – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Bodo/Glimt (65%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Kristiansund BK face Bodo/Glimt.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Eliteserien clash, Regular Season - 7 as Kristiansund BK welcome Bodo/Glimt to Nordmøre stadion. Kick-off is set for Sunday 12 May 2024 at 13:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Eliteserien games this season, Kristiansund BK have gone 2W 4D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.00 PPG return. Last five: W D D L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 2.00 conceded. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Kristiansund BK have played only a handful of Eliteserien games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Kristiansund BK's form when playing at home: 4W 3D 3L across 10 games at Nordmøre stadion this term (1.50 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.50 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.00 — Kristiansund BK are significantly better at Nordmøre stadion than their overall form suggests.
Bodo/Glimt — All Games: 8W 1D 1L from 10 Eliteserien fixtures this season — 2.50 PPG. Last five: W W W L W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.60 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
When travelling in Eliteserien this season, Bodo/Glimt have posted 5W 2D 3L from 10 away outings — 1.70 PPG. They are averaging 2.60 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.70 is notably below their overall 2.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Form points away from home here. Bodo/Glimt's 2.50 PPG return is 1.50 points per game ahead of Kristiansund BK's 1.00 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
Both teams score in over 70% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
Head to Head
Despite the anticipated home advantage, Bodo/Glimt have the better historical record — 5 wins from 5 previous contests against 0 for Kristiansund BK.
The 5 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.4 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 23 Oct 2022, ended 0–5 with Bodo/Glimt winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Bodo/Glimt have won 5 of 5 previous encounters, and at 3.4 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
Trading Patterns
Kristiansund BK in-play and half-time data (32 games, 16 at home): they score before half-time in 88% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 83% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 69% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 69% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 41%; they fail to score in 31% of games.
Bodo/Glimt in-play and half-time data (32 games, 16 at away): they score before half-time in 88% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 100% of those occasions; they lead at the break 53% of the time; BTTS occurs in 69% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 59%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Kristiansund BK 59% and Bodo/Glimt 62% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Kristiansund BK 59% | Bodo/Glimt 72%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Kristiansund BK 0.83 xG and Bodo/Glimt 2.00 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Kristiansund BK attack 0.865 / defence 0.960 | Bodo/Glimt attack 1.564 / defence 0.818. League average goals — home 1.181 / away 1.332. Bodo/Glimt have an above-average attack strength of 1.564 — the away xG of 2.00 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 6 Kristiansund BK games / 36 Bodo/Glimt games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Kristiansund BK 15% | Draw 21% | Bodo/Glimt 65%. Fair-value odds: Kristiansund BK 6.67 | Draw 4.76 | Bodo/Glimt 1.54. The model has a clear lean to Bodo/Glimt (65%) — a 50pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.83. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.83 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Bodo/Glimt as the most likely outcome at 65% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 21% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.83 combined xG gives a 54% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 4.0 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.4 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 49% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data: Kristiansund BK 70% | Bodo/Glimt 70% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Kristiansund BK vs Bodo/Glimt | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 7 | Venue: Nordmøre stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 12 May 2024, 13:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Kristiansund BK 15% | Draw 21% | Bodo/Glimt 65% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% | BTTS 49% | xG Kristiansund BK 0.83 / Bodo/Glimt 2.00 • Poisson strength factors: Kristiansund BK attack 0.865 / def 0.960 | Bodo/Glimt attack 1.564 / def 0.818 | league avg home 1.181 / away 1.332 • Poisson stance: Bodo/Glimt (65%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.83
Kristiansund BK xG
Expected Goals
2.00
Bodo/Glimt xG
49%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Kristiansund BK vs Bodo/Glimt kick off?
Kristiansund BK vs Bodo/Glimt kicked off at 13:30 on Sunday 12 May 2024 at Nordmøre stadion.
What was the final score in Kristiansund BK vs Bodo/Glimt?
Kristiansund BK 2 - 4 Bodo/Glimt.
Where is Kristiansund BK vs Bodo/Glimt being played?
The match is being played at Nordmøre stadion.
What competition is Kristiansund BK vs Bodo/Glimt part of?
Kristiansund BK vs Bodo/Glimt is a Regular Season - 7 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Kristiansund BK vs Bodo/Glimt?
Our statistical model gives Kristiansund BK a 15% chance of winning, Bodo/Glimt a 65% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making Bodo/Glimt the favourite.
Will both teams score in Kristiansund BK vs Bodo/Glimt?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Kristiansund BK and Bodo/Glimt will score (BTTS).
Will Kristiansund BK vs Bodo/Glimt have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%.
What is the head-to-head record between Kristiansund BK and Bodo/Glimt?
Record (5 meetings): Kristiansund BK 0W | Draws 0 | Bodo/Glimt 5W.
What form are Kristiansund BK and Bodo/Glimt in?
Kristiansund BK (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 2.00 | L5 W-D-D-L-W. Bodo/Glimt (all comps): 8W-1D-1L in 10 | 2.50 PPG | GF 2.60 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-W-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Kristiansund BK's attack at 0.86x the league average against Bodo/Glimt's defence at 0.82x — combine the two and it projects 0.83 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Bodo/Glimt's attack versus Kristiansund BK's defence, projects 2.00 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 6/36 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-2 carries the highest individual probability at 11.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (11.1%), 0-1 (10.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Bodo/Glimt Win
15%
6.75
21%
4.85
65%
1.55
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
11.7%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 2
11.7%
Away win
1 – 1
9.8%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.83
Kristiansund BK xG
Total xG
2.83
2.00
Bodo/Glimt xG
6.75
15%
Home win
4.85
21%
Draw
1.55
65%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.04
51%
BTTS No
1.96
Clean Sheet
14%
7.38
43%
2.30
Win to Nil
2%
49.81
28%
3.57
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.9 | 11.7 | 11.7 | 7.8 | 3.9 | 1.6 |
| 1 | 4.9 | 9.8 | 9.8 | 6.5 | 3.3 | 1.3 |
| 2 | 2.0 | 4.1 | 4.1 | 2.7 | 1.4 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 0.6 | 1.1 | 1.1 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Kristiansund BK vs Bodo/Glimt?
Our Poisson model rates 0-2 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.7%.
How many goals are Kristiansund BK and Bodo/Glimt expected to score?
The model projects 0.83 expected goals for Kristiansund BK and 2.00 for Bodo/Glimt, a combined total of 2.83.
How confident is the prediction model for Kristiansund BK vs Bodo/Glimt?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 65%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Kristiansund BK's recent record stands at 6W 8D 18L from 32 games, a 0.81 PPG return, with W-D-D-L-W in the last five. It's still early in the season for Kristiansund BK, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Bodo/Glimt, meanwhile, have gone 24W 4D 4L across 32 games — 2.38 PPG, with W-W-W-L-W in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Bodo/Glimt by 1.57 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Kristiansund BK heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Kristiansund BK have managed 4W 5D 7L from 16 games — 1.06 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Bodo/Glimt's away record stands at 11W 2D 3L across 16 trips, a 2.19 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Bodo/Glimt come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Kristiansund BK are averaging 1.22 goals scored and 1.94 conceded per game recently; Bodo/Glimt are on 2.72 scored and 1.38 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Bodo/Glimt in 62%.
Last 32 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Kristiansund BK
Early Season
Bodo/Glimt
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Kristiansund BK and Bodo/Glimt in coming into this match?
Kristiansund BK have gone 6W 8D 18L in their last 32 games (0.81 PPG), while Bodo/Glimt have gone 24W 4D 4L in their last 32 (2.38 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Kristiansund BK at home or Bodo/Glimt away?
Bodo/Glimt's away record (2.19 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Kristiansund BK at home: 1.06 PPG; Bodo/Glimt away: 2.19 PPG.
Have Kristiansund BK or Bodo/Glimt been keeping clean sheets recently?
Kristiansund BK have kept a clean sheet in 9% of their recent games, Bodo/Glimt in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2020. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. They last met on 6 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear current trend here: Bodo/Glimt have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 12 Sep 2025, when Bodo/Glimt won 7-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Kristiansund BK's record when hosting Bodo/Glimt specifically: 0W 1D 5L from 6 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
0
Kristiansund BK
1
Draws
9
Bodo/Glimt
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Kristiansund BK and Bodo/Glimt?
From 10 meetings on record, Kristiansund BK have won 0, Bodo/Glimt have won 9, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Kristiansund BK and Bodo/Glimt last play each other?
They last met on 6 April 2026, when Kristiansund BK 0-3 Bodo/Glimt.
Who has won more matches between Kristiansund BK and Bodo/Glimt?
Bodo/Glimt have the better head-to-head record, with 9 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Kristiansund BK are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 88% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 19% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Bodo/Glimt are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 88% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Kristiansund BK at 69%, Bodo/Glimt at 69%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 69% for Kristiansund BK and 75% for Bodo/Glimt. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 56% and 62% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Kristiansund BK home games / Bodo/Glimt away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Kristiansund BK play Bodo/Glimt?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 69% of Kristiansund BK's games and 69% of Bodo/Glimt's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Kristiansund BK vs Bodo/Glimt usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 69% of Kristiansund BK's matches and 75% of Bodo/Glimt's.
Do Kristiansund BK and Bodo/Glimt tend to score early?
Kristiansund BK have had a goal before half-time in 88% of their recent matches, Bodo/Glimt in 88% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Bodo/Glimt cruise to a comfortable 2-4 victory over Kristiansund BK.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Bodo/Glimt beat Kristiansund BK 2-4 at Nordmøre stadion, Regular Season - 7, in the Eliteserien. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Kristiansund BK 0.83 xG and Bodo/Glimt 2.00 xG, a combined 2.83. The scoreboard read 2-4 for 6 actual goals. Kristiansund BK beat their projection by 1.2 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Bodo/Glimt outscored their 2.00 projection by 2.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Kristiansund BK attack 0.86 / defence 0.96 against Bodo/Glimt attack 1.56 / defence 0.82, drawn from 6/36 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Kristiansund BK 15% | Draw 21% | Bodo/Glimt 65%, with Bodo/Glimt to win its most likely call at 65%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. Over 3.5 was 32% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 66% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Kristiansund BK 59%, Bodo/Glimt 72%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Kristiansund BK's trading profile (32 games, 16 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.
Bodo/Glimt's trading profile (32 games, 16 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Bodo/Glimt arrived the stronger side — 2.38 PPG against 0.81. That form edge translated into the three points. Kristiansund BK (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.94 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Bodo/Glimt (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 2.69 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.