KFUM Oslo 1-2 Sarpsborg 08 FF – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Sarpsborg 08 FF at 42% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as KFUM Oslo face Sarpsborg 08 FF.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Sarpsborg 08 FF make the trip to KFUM Arena to face KFUM Oslo in Eliteserien (matchday 27). The match kicks off on Sunday 3 November 2024 at 16:00 UK time.
Form
KFUM Oslo (all games): 3W 3D 4L across their last 10 — 1.20 PPG. Last five: L D W D L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 0.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
At home, KFUM Oslo have gone 2W 5D 3L in their last 10 home games (1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Sarpsborg 08 FF's record over their last 10 games: 3W 2D 5L (1.10 PPG). Last five: L L L W L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Sarpsborg 08 FF away from home: 4W 2D 4L from their last 10 away games — 1.40 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.20 vs 1.10 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
H2H History
Neither side has dominated the 1 H2H match in our data: 1 wins for KFUM Oslo, 0 for Sarpsborg 08 FF and 0 draws — leaving the H2H largely neutral. With only 1 H2H match to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 1 H2H match in our data averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 21 Apr 2024, ended KFUM Oslo 2–0 Sarpsborg 08 FF — a KFUM Oslo win.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
Trading
KFUM Oslo half-time and goal-timing data (last 26 games, 13 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 38% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; of the 7 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 43%; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 31% of games (home games).
Sarpsborg 08 FF half-time and goal-timing data (last 26 games, 13 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 85% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; of the 9 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 33%; BTTS occurs in 69% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 77% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 42%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — KFUM Oslo 58% and Sarpsborg 08 FF 65% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (KFUM Oslo 42% | Sarpsborg 08 FF 65%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects KFUM Oslo 1.09 xG and Sarpsborg 08 FF 1.32 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: KFUM Oslo attack 0.650 / defence 0.904 | Sarpsborg 08 FF attack 1.178 / defence 1.084. League average goals — home 1.550 / away 1.238. KFUM Oslo's attack rating of 0.650 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.09. Data: built from KFUM Oslo's last 26 games and Sarpsborg 08 FF's last 56.
Result probabilities: KFUM Oslo 31% | Draw 27% | Sarpsborg 08 FF 42%. Fair-value odds: KFUM Oslo 3.24 | Draw 3.65 | Sarpsborg 08 FF 2.39. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS Yes probability 49% | Total xG 2.41. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.41 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 51% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Sarpsborg 08 FF at 42% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Sarpsborg 08 FF if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.41 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 57% — low conviction — though recent form (KFUM Oslo's last 10 home games and Sarpsborg 08 FF's last 10 away games) averaging 3.0 goals per game points the other way.
Poisson assigns a 51% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data — both teams scored in: KFUM Oslo 50% (last 10 home games) | Sarpsborg 08 FF 80% (last 10 away games), a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: KFUM Oslo vs Sarpsborg 08 FF | Competition: Eliteserien, matchday 27 | Venue: KFUM Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 3 November 2024 at 16:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: KFUM Oslo 31% | Draw 27% | Sarpsborg 08 FF 42% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% (Under 57%) | BTTS Yes 49% (No 51%) | xG KFUM Oslo 1.09 / Sarpsborg 08 FF 1.32 • Poisson strength factors: KFUM Oslo attack 0.650 / def 0.904 | Sarpsborg 08 FF attack 1.178 / def 1.084 | league avg home 1.550 / away 1.238 • Poisson stance: Sarpsborg 08 FF (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.09
KFUM Oslo xG
Expected Goals
1.32
Sarpsborg 08 FF xG
49%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ KFUM Oslo vs Sarpsborg 08 FF FAQs
What time does KFUM Oslo vs Sarpsborg 08 FF kick off?
KFUM Oslo vs Sarpsborg 08 FF kicked off at 16:00 UK time on Sunday 3 November 2024 at KFUM Arena.
What was the final score in KFUM Oslo vs Sarpsborg 08 FF?
KFUM Oslo 1 - 2 Sarpsborg 08 FF.
Where is KFUM Oslo vs Sarpsborg 08 FF being played?
The match is being played at KFUM Arena.
What competition is KFUM Oslo vs Sarpsborg 08 FF part of?
KFUM Oslo vs Sarpsborg 08 FF is a Eliteserien fixture (matchday 27) (Norway).
Who is favourite to win KFUM Oslo vs Sarpsborg 08 FF?
Our statistical model gives KFUM Oslo a 31% chance of winning, Sarpsborg 08 FF a 42% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Sarpsborg 08 FF the favourite.
Will both teams score in KFUM Oslo vs Sarpsborg 08 FF?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both KFUM Oslo and Sarpsborg 08 FF will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (51%).
Will KFUM Oslo vs Sarpsborg 08 FF have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (57%).
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from KFUM Oslo's attack rating (0.65) and Sarpsborg 08 FF's defence rating (1.08), the model arrives at 1.09 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Sarpsborg 08 FF's attack (1.18x) against KFUM Oslo's defence (0.90x) — and the away total comes out at 1.32.
These ratings are built from KFUM Oslo's last 26 games and Sarpsborg 08 FF's last 56 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.6%. Close behind: 0-0 (10.7%), 0-1 (10.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Sarpsborg 08 FF Win
31%
3.24
27%
3.65
42%
2.39
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.8%
Away win
1 – 0
9.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.09
KFUM Oslo xG
Total xG
2.41
1.32
Sarpsborg 08 FF xG
3.24
31%
Home win
3.65
27%
Draw
2.39
42%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.05
51%
BTTS No
1.95
Clean Sheet
27%
3.74
34%
2.98
Win to Nil
8%
12.11
14%
7.13
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.0 | 11.8 | 7.8 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 9.8 | 12.9 | 8.5 | 3.7 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 5.4 | 7.1 | 4.7 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.9 | 2.6 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ KFUM Oslo vs Sarpsborg 08 FF Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for KFUM Oslo vs Sarpsborg 08 FF?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.6%.
How many goals are KFUM Oslo and Sarpsborg 08 FF expected to score?
The model projects 1.09 expected goals for KFUM Oslo and 1.32 for Sarpsborg 08 FF, a combined total of 2.41.
How confident is the prediction model for KFUM Oslo vs Sarpsborg 08 FF?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
KFUM Oslo's recent record stands at 8W 10D 8L from 26 games, a 1.31 PPG return, with L-D-W-D-L in the last five.
Sarpsborg 08 FF, meanwhile, have gone 8W 5D 13L across 26 games — 1.12 PPG, with L-L-L-W-L in their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.31 PPG for KFUM Oslo against 1.12 for Sarpsborg 08 FF. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, KFUM Oslo have managed 2W 7D 4L from their last 13 home games — 1.00 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Sarpsborg 08 FF's away record stands at 5W 3D 5L across their last 13 away games, a 1.38 PPG haul.
Attack vs Defence
KFUM Oslo are averaging 1.19 goals scored and 1.19 conceded per game recently; Sarpsborg 08 FF are on 1.38 scored and 1.92 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Sarpsborg 08 FF in 65%.
Last 26 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
KFUM Oslo
Blended
Sarpsborg 08 FF
Blended
KFUM Oslo (Home) vs Sarpsborg 08 FF (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
KFUM Oslo
Blended
Sarpsborg 08 FF
Blended
❓ KFUM Oslo vs Sarpsborg 08 FF Form FAQs
What form are KFUM Oslo and Sarpsborg 08 FF in coming into this match?
KFUM Oslo have gone 8W 10D 8L in their last 26 games (1.31 PPG), while Sarpsborg 08 FF have gone 8W 5D 13L in their last 26 (1.12 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — KFUM Oslo at home or Sarpsborg 08 FF away?
Sarpsborg 08 FF's away record (1.38 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — KFUM Oslo at home: 1.00 PPG; Sarpsborg 08 FF away: 1.38 PPG.
Have KFUM Oslo or Sarpsborg 08 FF been keeping clean sheets recently?
KFUM Oslo have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, Sarpsborg 08 FF in 12%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 6 H2H matches between KFUM Oslo and Sarpsborg 08 FF, the earliest from April 2024. All of them came in Eliteserien. The most recent was as recently as 18 September 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Notable Numbers
There's a clear recent trend here: KFUM Oslo have taken the most recent 2 H2H results in our data.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, KFUM Oslo have gone 1W 0D 2L from the 3 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Sarpsborg 08 FF — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
3
KFUM Oslo
0
Draws
3
Sarpsborg 08 FF
Recent Meetings
❓ KFUM Oslo vs Sarpsborg 08 FF H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between KFUM Oslo and Sarpsborg 08 FF?
Across the 6 head-to-head matches in our data, KFUM Oslo have won 3, Sarpsborg 08 FF have won 3, and 0 have been drawn.
When did KFUM Oslo and Sarpsborg 08 FF last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 18 September 2026: Sarpsborg 08 FF 1-3 KFUM Oslo.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
KFUM Oslo see a goal before the break in 38% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Sarpsborg 08 FF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 85% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 46% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — KFUM Oslo 54%, Sarpsborg 08 FF 69% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 31% (KFUM Oslo) and 77% (Sarpsborg 08 FF).
On the defensive side: KFUM Oslo keep a clean sheet in 38% of their matches; KFUM Oslo have failed to score in 31% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = KFUM Oslo home games / Sarpsborg 08 FF away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ KFUM Oslo vs Sarpsborg 08 FF Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in KFUM Oslo and Sarpsborg 08 FF matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 54% of KFUM Oslo's games and 69% of Sarpsborg 08 FF's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are KFUM Oslo and Sarpsborg 08 FF matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 31% of KFUM Oslo's recent games and 77% of Sarpsborg 08 FF's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do KFUM Oslo and Sarpsborg 08 FF matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 38% of KFUM Oslo's recent matches and 85% of Sarpsborg 08 FF's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Sarpsborg 08 FF edge out KFUM Oslo 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sarpsborg 08 FF beat KFUM Oslo 1-2 at KFUM Arena, Regular Season - 27, in the Eliteserien. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting KFUM Oslo 1.09 xG and Sarpsborg 08 FF 1.32 xG, a combined 2.41. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of KFUM Oslo attack 0.65 / defence 0.90 against Sarpsborg 08 FF attack 1.18 / defence 1.08, drawn from 26/56 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it KFUM Oslo 31% | Draw 27% | Sarpsborg 08 FF 42%, with Sarpsborg 08 FF to win its most likely call at 42%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (KFUM Oslo 42%, Sarpsborg 08 FF 65%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
KFUM Oslo's trading profile (26 games, 13 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
Sarpsborg 08 FF's trading profile (26 games, 13 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — KFUM Oslo 1.31 PPG, Sarpsborg 08 FF 1.12 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Sarpsborg 08 FF win broke the near-deadlock. Sarpsborg 08 FF (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 1.92 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.