KFUM Oslo 3-3 Sandefjord – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Sandefjord at 47% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as KFUM Oslo face Sandefjord.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
KFUM Oslo host Sandefjord at KFUM Arena in Eliteserien (matchday 11). Kick-off is Sunday 2 June 2024 at 17:00 UK time.
Form Guide
Across their last 10 games, Sandefjord have recorded 4W 1D 5L — 1.30 PPG. Last five: D W W L W. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.60. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
On the road, Sandefjord have gone 2W 0D 8L in their last 10 away fixtures (0.60 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.60 is notably below their overall 1.30 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects KFUM Oslo 0.97 xG and Sandefjord 1.42 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: KFUM Oslo attack 0.634 / defence 1.149 | Sandefjord attack 0.810 / defence 1.144. League average goals — home 1.340 / away 1.523. KFUM Oslo's attack rating of 0.634 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.97. Data: built from KFUM Oslo's last 10 games and Sandefjord's last 40.
Result probabilities: KFUM Oslo 26% | Draw 27% | Sandefjord 47%. Fair-value odds: KFUM Oslo 3.87 | Draw 3.72 | Sandefjord 2.12. Sandefjord hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS Yes probability 47% | Total xG 2.39. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.39 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 53% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Sandefjord as the most likely outcome at 47% — moderate model lean. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Sandefjord offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.39 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 57% probability — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: KFUM Oslo vs Sandefjord | Competition: Eliteserien, matchday 11 | Venue: KFUM Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 2 June 2024 at 17:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: KFUM Oslo 26% | Draw 27% | Sandefjord 47% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% (Under 57%) | BTTS Yes 47% (No 53%) | xG KFUM Oslo 0.97 / Sandefjord 1.42 • Poisson strength factors: KFUM Oslo attack 0.634 / def 1.149 | Sandefjord attack 0.810 / def 1.144 | league avg home 1.340 / away 1.523 • Poisson stance: Sandefjord (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.97
KFUM Oslo xG
Expected Goals
1.42
Sandefjord xG
47%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ KFUM Oslo vs Sandefjord FAQs
What time does KFUM Oslo vs Sandefjord kick off?
KFUM Oslo vs Sandefjord kicked off at 17:00 UK time on Sunday 2 June 2024 at KFUM Arena.
What was the final score in KFUM Oslo vs Sandefjord?
KFUM Oslo 3 - 3 Sandefjord.
Where is KFUM Oslo vs Sandefjord being played?
The match is being played at KFUM Arena.
What competition is KFUM Oslo vs Sandefjord part of?
KFUM Oslo vs Sandefjord is a Eliteserien fixture (matchday 11) (Norway).
Who is favourite to win KFUM Oslo vs Sandefjord?
Our statistical model gives KFUM Oslo a 26% chance of winning, Sandefjord a 47% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Sandefjord the favourite.
Will both teams score in KFUM Oslo vs Sandefjord?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both KFUM Oslo and Sandefjord will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (53%).
Will KFUM Oslo vs Sandefjord have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (57%).
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
KFUM Oslo's attacking strength (0.63x league average) is weighed against Sandefjord's defensive record (1.14x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.97. The same calculation in reverse, Sandefjord's attack versus KFUM Oslo's defence, projects 1.42 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from KFUM Oslo's last 10 games and Sandefjord's last 40 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.3%. Close behind: 0-1 (11.4%), 0-0 (10.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Sandefjord Win
26%
3.87
27%
3.72
47%
2.12
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
13.0%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
0 – 0
9.2%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.97
KFUM Oslo xG
Total xG
2.39
1.42
Sandefjord xG
3.87
26%
Home win
3.72
27%
Draw
2.12
47%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.12
53%
BTTS No
1.89
Clean Sheet
24%
4.12
38%
2.64
Win to Nil
6%
15.96
18%
5.59
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.2 | 13.0 | 9.2 | 4.3 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 8.9 | 12.6 | 9.0 | 4.2 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 4.3 | 6.1 | 4.3 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.4 | 2.0 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ KFUM Oslo vs Sandefjord Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for KFUM Oslo vs Sandefjord?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.3%.
How many goals are KFUM Oslo and Sandefjord expected to score?
The model projects 0.97 expected goals for KFUM Oslo and 1.42 for Sandefjord, a combined total of 2.39.
How confident is the prediction model for KFUM Oslo vs Sandefjord?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
KFUM Oslo
Pre-Season
Sandefjord
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
KFUM Oslo (Home) vs Sandefjord (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
KFUM Oslo
Pre-Season
Sandefjord
Pre-Season
No results found for this venue split.
No results found for this venue split.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 6 H2H matches in our data, going back to June 2024. All of them came in Eliteserien. The most recent was on 7 August 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
KFUM Oslo's record when hosting Sandefjord specifically: 1W 1D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
2
KFUM Oslo
1
Draws
3
Sandefjord
Recent Meetings
❓ KFUM Oslo vs Sandefjord H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between KFUM Oslo and Sandefjord?
Across the 6 head-to-head matches in our data, KFUM Oslo have won 2, Sandefjord have won 3, and 1 has been drawn.
When did KFUM Oslo and Sandefjord last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 7 August 2026: Sandefjord 0-1 KFUM Oslo.
Who has won more matches between KFUM Oslo and Sandefjord?
Sandefjord have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from the 6 head-to-head matches in our data.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = KFUM Oslo home games / Sandefjord away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
KFUM Oslo and Sandefjord share the spoils in a 3-3 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
KFUM Oslo and Sandefjord finished level at 3-3 at KFUM Arena, Regular Season - 11, in the Eliteserien. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting KFUM Oslo 0.97 xG and Sandefjord 1.42 xG, a combined 2.39. The scoreboard read 3-3 for 6 actual goals. KFUM Oslo beat their projection by 2.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Sandefjord outscored their 1.42 projection by 1.6. Those figures were built on strength ratings of KFUM Oslo attack 0.63 / defence 1.15 against Sandefjord attack 0.81 / defence 1.14, drawn from 10/40 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it KFUM Oslo 26% | Draw 27% | Sandefjord 47%, with Sandefjord to win its most likely call at 47%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. Over 3.5 was 22% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.