KFUM Oslo 1-4 Haugesund – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours KFUM Oslo (68%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as KFUM Oslo face Haugesund.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Eliteserien clash, Regular Season - 27 as KFUM Oslo welcome Haugesund to KFUM Arena. Kick-off is set for Sunday 2 November 2025 at 16:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, KFUM Oslo stand at 1W 7D 2L from 10 Eliteserien matches — 1.00 PPG. Last five: D W D D L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for KFUM Oslo, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at KFUM Arena, KFUM Oslo have gone 4W 5D 1L this season (10 games, 1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.70 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.00 — KFUM Oslo are significantly better at KFUM Arena than their overall form suggests.
Haugesund — All Games: 1W 1D 8L from 10 Eliteserien fixtures this season — 0.40 PPG. Last five: L L L L L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 2.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.60 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Haugesund, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Haugesund's away record: 0W 1D 9L from 10 road trips in Eliteserien this season (0.10 PPG). Away from home they average 0.50 goals scored and 2.50 conceded per game.
KFUM Oslo are in the better shape of the two on current Eliteserien data — 0.60 PPG ahead (1.00 vs 0.40). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 2 wins apiece for KFUM Oslo, 0 for Haugesund and 1 shared spoils from 3 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The last 3 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 1.0 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 13 Jul 2025, ended 2–0 with KFUM Oslo winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Patterns
KFUM Oslo in-play and half-time data (56 games, 28 at home): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 68% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).
Haugesund in-play and half-time data (56 games, 28 at away): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 72% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%; they fail to score in 46% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — KFUM Oslo 57% versus Haugesund 41%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (KFUM Oslo 46% | Haugesund 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects KFUM Oslo 2.23 xG and Haugesund 0.83 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: KFUM Oslo attack 0.995 / defence 0.905 | Haugesund attack 0.654 / defence 1.281. League average goals — home 1.751 / away 1.404. Haugesund bring a strong defensive rating of 1.281 — this is suppressing KFUM Oslo's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 56 KFUM Oslo games / 56 Haugesund games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: KFUM Oslo 68% | Draw 20% | Haugesund 12%. Fair-value odds: KFUM Oslo 1.47 | Draw 5.00 | Haugesund 8.33. The model has a clear lean to KFUM Oslo (68%) — a 56pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 59% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 3.06. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 59% — the 3.06 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is KFUM Oslo at 68% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 20% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 3.06 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 59% — marginal — conflicting signals confidence, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 1.0 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 51% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: KFUM Oslo 60% | Haugesund 40%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: KFUM Oslo vs Haugesund | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 27 | Venue: KFUM Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 2 Nov 2025, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: KFUM Oslo 68% | Draw 20% | Haugesund 12% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 59% | BTTS 51% | xG KFUM Oslo 2.23 / Haugesund 0.83 • Poisson strength factors: KFUM Oslo attack 0.995 / def 0.905 | Haugesund attack 0.654 / def 1.281 | league avg home 1.751 / away 1.404 • Poisson stance: KFUM Oslo (68%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.23
KFUM Oslo xG
Expected Goals
0.83
Haugesund xG
51%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
59%
Over 2.5
37%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does KFUM Oslo vs Haugesund kick off?
KFUM Oslo vs Haugesund kicked off at 16:00 on Sunday 2 November 2025 at KFUM Arena.
What was the final score in KFUM Oslo vs Haugesund?
KFUM Oslo 1 - 4 Haugesund.
Where is KFUM Oslo vs Haugesund being played?
The match is being played at KFUM Arena.
What competition is KFUM Oslo vs Haugesund part of?
KFUM Oslo vs Haugesund is a Regular Season - 27 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win KFUM Oslo vs Haugesund?
Our statistical model gives KFUM Oslo a 68% chance of winning, Haugesund a 12% chance, and a 20% chance of a draw — making KFUM Oslo the favourite.
Will both teams score in KFUM Oslo vs Haugesund?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both KFUM Oslo and Haugesund will score (BTTS).
Will KFUM Oslo vs Haugesund have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 59%.
What is the head-to-head record between KFUM Oslo and Haugesund?
Record (3 meetings): KFUM Oslo 2W | Draws 1 | Haugesund 0W.
What form are KFUM Oslo and Haugesund in?
KFUM Oslo (all comps): 1W-7D-2L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-W-D-D-L. Haugesund (all comps): 1W-1D-8L in 10 | 0.40 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 2.60 | L5 L-L-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates KFUM Oslo's attack at 0.99x the league average against Haugesund's defence at 1.28x — combine the two and it projects 2.23 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Haugesund's attack versus KFUM Oslo's defence, projects 0.83 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 56/56 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 2-0 carries the highest individual probability at 11.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (9.8%), 2-1 (9.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
KFUM Oslo Win
68%
1.46
20%
5.03
12%
8.50
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
11.6%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 0
10.4%
Home win
2 – 1
9.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.23
KFUM Oslo xG
Total xG
3.06
0.83
Haugesund xG
1.46
68%
Home win
5.03
20%
Draw
8.50
12%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
59%
Over 2.5
1.69
41%
Under 2.5
2.44
37%
Over 3.5
2.70
63%
Under 3.5
1.59
20%
Over 4.5
5.00
80%
Under 4.5
1.25
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.95
49%
BTTS No
2.05
Clean Sheet
44%
2.30
11%
9.30
Win to Nil
30%
3.36
1%
79.08
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.7 | 3.9 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 10.4 | 8.7 | 3.6 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 11.6 | 9.7 | 4.0 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 8.7 | 7.2 | 3.0 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 4.8 | 4.0 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 2.2 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for KFUM Oslo vs Haugesund?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.6%.
How many goals are KFUM Oslo and Haugesund expected to score?
The model projects 2.23 expected goals for KFUM Oslo and 0.83 for Haugesund, a combined total of 3.06.
How confident is the prediction model for KFUM Oslo vs Haugesund?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 68%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
KFUM Oslo's recent record stands at 17W 20D 19L from 56 games, a 1.27 PPG return, with D-W-D-D-L in the last five. The sample for KFUM Oslo is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Haugesund, meanwhile, have gone 10W 10D 36L across 56 games — 0.71 PPG, with L-L-L-L-L in their last five. The sample for Haugesund is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours KFUM Oslo by 0.56 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Haugesund heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, KFUM Oslo have managed 7W 12D 9L from 28 games — 1.18 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Haugesund's away record stands at 2W 7D 19L across 28 trips, a 0.46 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, KFUM Oslo come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
KFUM Oslo are averaging 1.32 goals scored and 1.21 conceded per game recently; Haugesund are on 0.82 scored and 1.98 conceded.
Last 56 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
KFUM Oslo
Blended
Haugesund
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are KFUM Oslo and Haugesund in coming into this match?
KFUM Oslo have gone 17W 20D 19L in their last 56 games (1.27 PPG), while Haugesund have gone 10W 10D 36L in their last 56 (0.71 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — KFUM Oslo at home or Haugesund away?
KFUM Oslo's home record (1.18 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — KFUM Oslo at home: 1.18 PPG; Haugesund away: 0.46 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between KFUM Oslo and Haugesund runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to May 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. They last met on 2 November 2025, roughly 10 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 2 Nov 2025, when Haugesund won 1-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
KFUM Oslo's record when hosting Haugesund specifically: 0W 1D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
2
KFUM Oslo
1
Draws
1
Haugesund
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between KFUM Oslo and Haugesund?
From 4 meetings on record, KFUM Oslo have won 2, Haugesund have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did KFUM Oslo and Haugesund last play each other?
They last met on 2 November 2025, when KFUM Oslo 1-4 Haugesund.
Who has won more matches between KFUM Oslo and Haugesund?
KFUM Oslo have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
KFUM Oslo see a goal before the break in 57% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Haugesund are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — KFUM Oslo 64%, Haugesund 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (KFUM Oslo) and 57% (Haugesund).
On the defensive side: Haugesund in 43%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = KFUM Oslo home games / Haugesund away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when KFUM Oslo play Haugesund?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 64% of KFUM Oslo's games and 50% of Haugesund's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is KFUM Oslo vs Haugesund usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of KFUM Oslo's recent games and 57% of Haugesund's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do KFUM Oslo and Haugesund tend to score early?
KFUM Oslo have had a goal before half-time in 57% of their recent matches, Haugesund in 79% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Haugesund run riot with a 1-4 hammering of KFUM Oslo.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Haugesund beat KFUM Oslo 1-4 at KFUM Arena, Regular Season - 27, in the Eliteserien. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting KFUM Oslo 2.23 xG and Haugesund 0.83 xG, a combined 3.06. The scoreboard read 1-4 for 5 actual goals. KFUM Oslo fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Haugesund outscored their 0.83 projection by 3.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of KFUM Oslo attack 0.99 / defence 0.91 against Haugesund attack 0.65 / defence 1.28, drawn from 56/56 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it KFUM Oslo 68% | Draw 20% | Haugesund 12%, with KFUM Oslo to win its most likely call at 68%. Instead the game produced a Haugesund win, an outcome the model had rated at just 12% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 59%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. Over 3.5 was 37% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (KFUM Oslo 46%, Haugesund 54%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
KFUM Oslo's trading profile (56 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
Haugesund's trading profile (56 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, KFUM Oslo arrived the stronger side — 1.27 PPG against 0.71. Form was overturned, with Haugesund winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. KFUM Oslo (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.29 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Haugesund (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 0.82 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 2.25 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.