Haugesund 1-0 Viking – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Viking at 50% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Haugesund vs Viking encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Eliteserien encounter, Regular Season - 15 sees Viking travel to Haugesund Sparebank Arena to take on Haugesund. The game is scheduled for Sunday 21 July 2024, 16:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Haugesund stand at 2W 2D 6L from 10 Eliteserien matches — 0.80 PPG. Last five: L W L L D. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Haugesund, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Haugesund Sparebank Arena, Haugesund have gone 4W 0D 6L this season (10 games, 1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.
Across all Eliteserien games this season, Viking have recorded 7W 2D 1L from 10 outings — 2.30 PPG. Last five: W D W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.30 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Viking, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Viking's form when playing away from home: 4W 3D 3L across 10 road games this term (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.50 is notably below their overall 2.30 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Viking — 1.50 PPG ahead of the hosts (2.30 vs 0.80). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 6 previous meetings, Haugesund have won 2, Viking 3, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 6 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 4.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 16 Sep 2023, ended 0–2 with Viking winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Haugesund in-play and half-time data (43 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 55% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 55% of games (home games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
Viking in-play and half-time data (43 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 69% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 42%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Haugesund 51% versus Viking 63%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Haugesund 51% | Viking 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Haugesund 0.95 xG and Viking 1.55 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Haugesund attack 0.746 / defence 0.975 | Viking attack 1.127 / defence 0.895. League average goals — home 1.419 / away 1.408. Haugesund's attack strength of 0.746 is below the league average — the 0.95 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 43 Haugesund games / 44 Viking games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Haugesund 22% | Draw 28% | Viking 50%. Fair-value odds: Haugesund 4.55 | Draw 3.57 | Viking 2.00. Viking hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.49. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.49 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Viking as the most likely outcome at 50% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Viking offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.49 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 45% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though H2H averaging only 4.0 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 49%. Form rates corroborate: Haugesund 40% | Viking 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Haugesund vs Viking | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 15 | Venue: Haugesund Sparebank Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 21 Jul 2024, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Haugesund 22% | Draw 28% | Viking 50% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% | BTTS 49% | xG Haugesund 0.95 / Viking 1.55 • Poisson strength factors: Haugesund attack 0.746 / def 0.975 | Viking attack 1.127 / def 0.895 | league avg home 1.419 / away 1.408 • Poisson stance: Viking (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.95
Haugesund xG
Expected Goals
1.55
Viking xG
49%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Haugesund vs Viking kick off?
Haugesund vs Viking kicked off at 16:00 on Sunday 21 July 2024 at Haugesund Sparebank Arena.
What was the final score in Haugesund vs Viking?
Haugesund 1 - 0 Viking.
Where is Haugesund vs Viking being played?
The match is being played at Haugesund Sparebank Arena.
What competition is Haugesund vs Viking part of?
Haugesund vs Viking is a Regular Season - 15 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Haugesund vs Viking?
Our statistical model gives Haugesund a 22% chance of winning, Viking a 50% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Viking the favourite.
Will both teams score in Haugesund vs Viking?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Haugesund and Viking will score (BTTS).
Will Haugesund vs Viking have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%.
What is the head-to-head record between Haugesund and Viking?
Record (6 meetings): Haugesund 2W | Draws 1 | Viking 3W.
What form are Haugesund and Viking in?
Haugesund (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-W-L-L-D. Viking (all comps): 7W-2D-1L in 10 | 2.30 PPG | GF 2.30 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-D-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Haugesund's attack at 0.75x the league average against Viking's defence at 0.90x — combine the two and it projects 0.95 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Viking's attack versus Haugesund's defence, projects 1.55 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 43/44 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-1 (11.2%), 0-2 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Viking Win
22%
4.51
28%
3.63
50%
1.99
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
12.8%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.1%
Draw
0 – 2
9.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.95
Haugesund xG
Total xG
2.49
1.55
Viking xG
4.51
22%
Home win
3.63
28%
Draw
1.99
50%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.04
51%
BTTS No
1.97
Clean Sheet
21%
4.69
39%
2.58
Win to Nil
5%
21.18
20%
5.12
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.3 | 12.8 | 9.9 | 5.1 | 2.0 | 0.6 |
| 1 | 7.8 | 12.1 | 9.4 | 4.8 | 1.9 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 3.7 | 5.7 | 4.4 | 2.3 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 1.2 | 1.8 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Haugesund vs Viking?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.7%.
How many goals are Haugesund and Viking expected to score?
The model projects 0.95 expected goals for Haugesund and 1.55 for Viking, a combined total of 2.49.
How confident is the prediction model for Haugesund vs Viking?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Haugesund come into this having played 43 games, going 13W 8D 22L for 1.09 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-L-L-D. The sample for Haugesund is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Viking sit at 2.00 PPG from 43 outings (26W 8D 9L), a run that reads W-D-W-W-W across their last five. The sample for Viking is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Viking carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.91 PPG clear of Haugesund — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Haugesund's home form reads 8W 1D 11L across 20 games on their own ground, a 1.25 PPG return.
Away from home, Viking have taken 1.85 points per game from 20 outings (11W 4D 5L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Viking come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Haugesund are averaging 1.07 goals scored and 1.35 conceded per game recently; Viking are on 2.02 scored and 1.47 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Viking in 63%.
Last 43 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Haugesund
Blended
Viking
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Haugesund and Viking in coming into this match?
Haugesund have gone 13W 8D 22L in their last 43 games (1.09 PPG), while Viking have gone 26W 8D 9L in their last 43 (2.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Haugesund at home or Viking away?
Viking's away record (1.85 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Haugesund at home: 1.25 PPG; Viking away: 1.85 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to May 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. It has been a while since the last meeting — 11 May 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Viking have won the last 3 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 30 Apr 2022, when Viking won 5-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Haugesund's record when hosting Viking specifically: 3W 0D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Haugesund
1
Draws
6
Viking
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Haugesund and Viking?
From 10 meetings on record, Haugesund have won 3, Viking have won 6, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Haugesund and Viking last play each other?
They last met on 11 May 2025, when Haugesund 1-4 Viking.
Who has won more matches between Haugesund and Viking?
Viking have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Haugesund see a goal before the break in 55% of their matches.
Viking are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Haugesund 55%, Viking 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 55% (Haugesund) and 60% (Viking). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 20% and 35% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Haugesund home games / Viking away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Haugesund play Viking?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 55% of Haugesund's recent matches and 50% of Viking's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Haugesund vs Viking usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 55% of Haugesund's matches and 60% of Viking's.
Do Haugesund and Viking tend to score early?
Haugesund have had a goal before half-time in 55% of their recent matches, Viking in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Haugesund defy the odds to beat Viking 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Haugesund beat Viking 1-0 at Haugesund Sparebank Arena, Regular Season - 15, in the Eliteserien. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Haugesund 0.95 xG and Viking 1.55 xG, a combined 2.49. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Viking landed 1.5 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Haugesund attack 0.75 / defence 0.97 against Viking attack 1.13 / defence 0.90, drawn from 43/44 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Haugesund 22% | Draw 28% | Viking 50%, with Viking to win its most likely call at 50%. Instead the game produced a Haugesund win, an outcome the model had rated at just 22% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 72% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Haugesund 51%, Viking 60%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Haugesund's trading profile (43 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not.
Viking's trading profile (43 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Viking arrived the stronger side — 2.00 PPG against 1.09. Form was overturned, with Haugesund winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Haugesund (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.40 average — tighter than their form line. Viking (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.65 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.