Haugesund 2-1 Valerenga – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Valerenga at 39% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Haugesund vs Valerenga encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Haugesund Stadion plays host to Haugesund versus Valerenga in Eliteserien, Regular Season - 16. Kick-off: Saturday 29 August 2020 at 17:00 UTC.
Current Form
Haugesund's overall Eliteserien record this term: 3W 2D 5L from 10 games (1.10 PPG). Last five: D W L L W. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Haugesund, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Haugesund at Haugesund Stadion this season: 3W 1D 4L from 8 home games — 1.25 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.25 goals scored and 1.62 conceded per game.
Valerenga (all games): 5W 3D 2L across 10 Eliteserien outings this term — 1.80 points per game. Last five: L W D L W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Valerenga, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Eliteserien this season, Valerenga have posted 3W 2D 3L from 8 away outings — 1.38 PPG. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. 3 clean sheets from 8 away games (38%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. BTTS has landed in 62% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
On a straight form reading, Valerenga are the stronger side — 0.70 PPG clear of the hosts (1.80 vs 1.10). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Haugesund lead 0W to 1W over the last 1 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Scoring has been limited when these teams have met. The 1 previous contests averaged 1.0 goals, making the Under 2.5 the historically backed angle in the goals market. The most recent clash, on 15 Jul 2020, ended 0–1 with Valerenga winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading
Haugesund half-time and goal-timing data (15 games, 8 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games); they fail to score in 40% of games.
Valerenga half-time and goal-timing data (15 games, 8 at away): they score before half-time in 88% of fixtures in away games; when trailing at the break they recover to draw or win in 33% of cases; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Haugesund 40% versus Valerenga 67%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Haugesund 47% | Valerenga 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Haugesund 1.26 xG and Valerenga 1.33 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Haugesund attack 0.827 / defence 1.272 | Valerenga attack 0.751 / defence 1.128. League average goals — home 1.350 / away 1.398. Data: 15 Haugesund games / 15 Valerenga games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Haugesund 35% | Draw 26% | Valerenga 39%. Fair-value odds: Haugesund 2.86 | Draw 3.85 | Valerenga 2.56. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.59. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.59 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Valerenga at 39% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Valerenga if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.59 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 48% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 53% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Haugesund 50% | Valerenga 62% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Haugesund vs Valerenga | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 16 | Venue: Haugesund Stadion • Kick-off: Saturday 29 Aug 2020, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Haugesund 35% | Draw 26% | Valerenga 39% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% | BTTS 53% | xG Haugesund 1.26 / Valerenga 1.33 • Poisson strength factors: Haugesund attack 0.827 / def 1.272 | Valerenga attack 0.751 / def 1.128 | league avg home 1.350 / away 1.398 • Poisson stance: Valerenga (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.26
Haugesund xG
Expected Goals
1.33
Valerenga xG
53%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Haugesund vs Valerenga kick off?
Haugesund vs Valerenga kicked off at 17:00 on Saturday 29 August 2020 at Haugesund Stadion.
What was the final score in Haugesund vs Valerenga?
Haugesund 2 - 1 Valerenga.
Where is Haugesund vs Valerenga being played?
The match is being played at Haugesund Stadion.
What competition is Haugesund vs Valerenga part of?
Haugesund vs Valerenga is a Regular Season - 16 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Haugesund vs Valerenga?
Our statistical model gives Haugesund a 35% chance of winning, Valerenga a 39% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Valerenga the favourite.
Will both teams score in Haugesund vs Valerenga?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Haugesund and Valerenga will score (BTTS).
Will Haugesund vs Valerenga have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%.
What is the head-to-head record between Haugesund and Valerenga?
Record (1 meetings): Haugesund 0W | Draws 0 | Valerenga 1W.
What form are Haugesund and Valerenga in?
Haugesund (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-W-L-L-W. Valerenga (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-W-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Haugesund's attacking strength (0.83x league average) is weighed against Valerenga's defensive record (1.13x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.26. Flip it around — Valerenga's attack (0.75x) against Haugesund's defence (1.27x) — and the away total comes out at 1.33.
These ratings are built from 15/15 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.2%. Close behind: 0-0 (9.1%), 1-2 (8.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Valerenga Win
35%
2.85
26%
3.79
39%
2.59
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.0%
Away win
1 – 0
9.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.26
Haugesund xG
Total xG
2.59
1.33
Valerenga xG
2.85
35%
Home win
3.79
26%
Draw
2.59
39%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.89
47%
BTTS No
2.12
Clean Sheet
26%
3.80
28%
3.53
Win to Nil
9%
10.84
11%
9.14
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.5 | 10.0 | 6.7 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 9.4 | 12.6 | 8.4 | 3.7 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 5.9 | 7.9 | 5.3 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.5 | 3.3 | 2.2 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.0 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Haugesund vs Valerenga?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.2%.
How many goals are Haugesund and Valerenga expected to score?
The model projects 1.26 expected goals for Haugesund and 1.33 for Valerenga, a combined total of 2.59.
How confident is the prediction model for Haugesund vs Valerenga?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Haugesund's recent record stands at 5W 3D 7L from 15 games, a 1.20 PPG return, with D-W-L-L-W in the last five. The sample for Haugesund is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Valerenga, meanwhile, have gone 7W 5D 3L across 15 games — 1.73 PPG, with L-W-D-L-W in their last five. The sample for Valerenga is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Valerenga by 0.53 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Haugesund heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Haugesund have managed 3W 1D 4L from 8 games — 1.25 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Valerenga's away record stands at 3W 2D 3L across 8 trips, a 1.38 PPG haul.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Haugesund are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.47 conceded per game recently; Valerenga are on 1.40 scored and 1.33 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Valerenga in 67%.
Last 15 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Haugesund
Blended
Valerenga
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Haugesund and Valerenga in coming into this match?
Haugesund have gone 5W 3D 7L in their last 15 games (1.20 PPG), while Valerenga have gone 7W 5D 3L in their last 15 (1.73 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Haugesund at home or Valerenga away?
Valerenga's away record (1.38 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Haugesund at home: 1.25 PPG; Valerenga away: 1.38 PPG.
Have Haugesund or Valerenga been keeping clean sheets recently?
Haugesund have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Valerenga in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since July 2020 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. They last met on 24 August 2025, roughly 11 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Valerenga go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Valerenga won 3-0 on 20 Jul 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Haugesund have gone 2W 2D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Valerenga — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Haugesund
3
Draws
5
Valerenga
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Haugesund and Valerenga?
From 10 meetings on record, Haugesund have won 2, Valerenga have won 5, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Haugesund and Valerenga last play each other?
They last met on 24 August 2025, when Haugesund 2-3 Valerenga.
Who has won more matches between Haugesund and Valerenga?
Valerenga have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Haugesund are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Valerenga are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 88% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Haugesund 50%, Valerenga 62% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 62% (Haugesund) and 50% (Valerenga). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 38% and 25% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Valerenga in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Haugesund home games / Valerenga away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Haugesund play Valerenga?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 50% of Haugesund's games and 62% of Valerenga's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Haugesund vs Valerenga usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 62% of Haugesund's matches and 50% of Valerenga's.
Do Haugesund and Valerenga tend to score early?
Haugesund have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Valerenga in 88% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Haugesund defy the odds to beat Valerenga 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Haugesund beat Valerenga 2-1 at Haugesund Stadion, Regular Season - 16, in the Eliteserien. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Haugesund 1.26 xG and Valerenga 1.33 xG, a combined 2.59. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Haugesund attack 0.83 / defence 1.27 against Valerenga attack 0.75 / defence 1.13, drawn from 15/15 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Haugesund 35% | Draw 26% | Valerenga 39%, with Valerenga to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual Haugesund win had been the model's second-ranked read at 35%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Haugesund 47%, Valerenga 60%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Haugesund's trading profile (15 games, 8 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Valerenga's trading profile (15 games, 8 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Valerenga arrived the stronger side — 1.73 PPG against 1.20. Form was overturned, with Haugesund winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.