Haugesund 1-0 Stromsgodset – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Haugesund at 38% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Haugesund vs Stromsgodset encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Haugesund and Stromsgodset meet at Haugesund Sparebank Arena in Eliteserien, Regular Season - 24. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 8 October 2023 at 16:00 UTC.
Form
Haugesund (all games): 1W 3D 6L across 10 Eliteserien fixtures this term — 0.60 PPG. Last five: L D L L D. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Haugesund, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Haugesund's home record at Haugesund Sparebank Arena: 3W 2D 5L from 10 Eliteserien appearances (1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.10 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.60 — Haugesund are significantly better at Haugesund Sparebank Arena than their overall form suggests.
Stromsgodset's overall Eliteserien record this term: 2W 1D 7L from 10 games (0.70 PPG). Last five: L W L D L. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Stromsgodset, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Stromsgodset have gone 3W 2D 5L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 0.60 vs 0.70 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 5 head-to-head meetings have produced 3 wins for Haugesund, 1 for Stromsgodset and 1 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
The 5 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 4 Jun 2023, ended 2–1 with Haugesund winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Haugesund — key trading statistics (53 games, 26 at home): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 73% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
Stromsgodset — key trading statistics (53 games, 26 at away): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 87% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Haugesund 60% versus Stromsgodset 51%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Haugesund 55% | Stromsgodset 57%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Haugesund 1.16 xG and Stromsgodset 1.03 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Haugesund attack 0.755 / defence 1.123 | Stromsgodset attack 0.718 / defence 0.850. League average goals — home 1.802 / away 1.276. Haugesund's attack strength of 0.755 is below the league average — the 1.16 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 53 Haugesund games / 53 Stromsgodset games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Haugesund 38% | Draw 31% | Stromsgodset 31%. Fair-value odds: Haugesund 2.63 | Draw 3.23 | Stromsgodset 3.23. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 37% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.18. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 63% — total xG of 2.18 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Haugesund as the most likely outcome at 38% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 31% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Haugesund if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.18 combined xG gives a 37% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 45%. Form rates are neutral: Haugesund 70% | Stromsgodset 40%.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Haugesund vs Stromsgodset | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 24 | Venue: Haugesund Sparebank Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 8 Oct 2023, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Haugesund 38% | Draw 31% | Stromsgodset 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 37% | BTTS 45% | xG Haugesund 1.16 / Stromsgodset 1.03 • Poisson strength factors: Haugesund attack 0.755 / def 1.123 | Stromsgodset attack 0.718 / def 0.850 | league avg home 1.802 / away 1.276 • Poisson stance: Haugesund (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.16
Haugesund xG
Expected Goals
1.03
Stromsgodset xG
45%
BTTS
65%
Over 1.5
37%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Haugesund vs Stromsgodset kick off?
Haugesund vs Stromsgodset kicked off at 16:00 on Sunday 8 October 2023 at Haugesund Sparebank Arena.
What was the final score in Haugesund vs Stromsgodset?
Haugesund 1 - 0 Stromsgodset.
Where is Haugesund vs Stromsgodset being played?
The match is being played at Haugesund Sparebank Arena.
What competition is Haugesund vs Stromsgodset part of?
Haugesund vs Stromsgodset is a Regular Season - 24 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Haugesund vs Stromsgodset?
Our statistical model gives Haugesund a 38% chance of winning, Stromsgodset a 31% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Haugesund the favourite.
Will both teams score in Haugesund vs Stromsgodset?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both Haugesund and Stromsgodset will score (BTTS).
Will Haugesund vs Stromsgodset have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 37%.
What is the head-to-head record between Haugesund and Stromsgodset?
Record (5 meetings): Haugesund 3W | Draws 1 | Stromsgodset 1W.
What form are Haugesund and Stromsgodset in?
Haugesund (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-D-L-L-D. Stromsgodset (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-W-L-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Haugesund's attack rating (0.76) and Stromsgodset's defence rating (0.85), the model arrives at 1.16 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Stromsgodset's attack (0.72x) against Haugesund's defence (1.12x) — and the away total comes out at 1.03.
These ratings are built from 53/53 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.1%. Close behind: 0-0 (13.0%), 1-0 (11.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Haugesund Win
38%
2.65
31%
3.23
31%
3.19
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
13.0%
Home win
0 – 1
11.6%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.16
Haugesund xG
Total xG
2.18
1.03
Stromsgodset xG
2.65
38%
Home win
3.23
31%
Draw
3.19
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
64%
Over 1.5
1.56
36%
Under 1.5
2.78
37%
Over 2.5
2.70
63%
Under 2.5
1.59
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.23
55%
BTTS No
1.81
Clean Sheet
36%
2.80
31%
3.18
Win to Nil
13%
7.41
10%
10.13
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.2 | 11.6 | 6.0 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.0 | 13.4 | 6.9 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.5 | 7.7 | 4.0 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.9 | 3.0 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.8 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Haugesund vs Stromsgodset?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.1%.
How many goals are Haugesund and Stromsgodset expected to score?
The model projects 1.16 expected goals for Haugesund and 1.03 for Stromsgodset, a combined total of 2.18.
How confident is the prediction model for Haugesund vs Stromsgodset?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 53 outings, Haugesund have picked up 1.11 PPG on a 15W 14D 24L record — L-D-L-L-D across the most recent five. The sample for Haugesund is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Stromsgodset's form line: 17W 9D 27L from 53 games, 1.13 PPG, last five L-W-L-D-L. The sample for Stromsgodset is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.11 PPG for Haugesund against 1.13 for Stromsgodset. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Haugesund have posted 1.38 PPG from 26 outings (10W 6D 10L).
On the road, Stromsgodset have gone 5W 6D 15L from 26 away games — 0.81 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Haugesund come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Haugesund are averaging 1.17 goals scored and 1.51 conceded per game recently; Stromsgodset are on 1.32 scored and 1.62 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Haugesund have seen both teams score in 60% of their recent games.
Last 53 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Haugesund
Blended
Stromsgodset
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Haugesund and Stromsgodset in coming into this match?
Haugesund have gone 15W 14D 24L in their last 53 games (1.11 PPG), while Stromsgodset have gone 17W 9D 27L in their last 53 (1.13 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Haugesund at home or Stromsgodset away?
Haugesund's home record (1.38 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Haugesund at home: 1.38 PPG; Stromsgodset away: 0.81 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to July 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. They last met on 3 August 2025, roughly 12 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Stromsgodset have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Stromsgodset won 0-5 on 6 Apr 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Haugesund have gone 2W 1D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Stromsgodset — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Haugesund
2
Draws
4
Stromsgodset
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Haugesund and Stromsgodset?
From 10 meetings on record, Haugesund have won 4, Stromsgodset have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Haugesund and Stromsgodset last play each other?
They last met on 3 August 2025, when Stromsgodset 2-0 Haugesund.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Haugesund are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches.
Stromsgodset are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Haugesund 73%, Stromsgodset 42% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 62% (Haugesund) and 46% (Stromsgodset).
On the defensive side: Stromsgodset in 42%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Haugesund home games / Stromsgodset away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Haugesund play Stromsgodset?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 73% of Haugesund's games and 42% of Stromsgodset's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Haugesund vs Stromsgodset usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 62% of Haugesund's recent games and 46% of Stromsgodset's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Haugesund and Stromsgodset tend to score early?
Haugesund have had a goal before half-time in 77% of their recent matches, Stromsgodset in 62% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Haugesund edge out Stromsgodset 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Haugesund beat Stromsgodset 1-0 at Haugesund Sparebank Arena, Regular Season - 24, in the Eliteserien. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Haugesund 1.16 xG and Stromsgodset 1.03 xG, a combined 2.18. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Stromsgodset landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Haugesund attack 0.76 / defence 1.12 against Stromsgodset attack 0.72 / defence 0.85, drawn from 53/53 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Haugesund 38% | Draw 31% | Stromsgodset 31%, with Haugesund to win its most likely call at 38%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 37%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 65% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Haugesund 55%, Stromsgodset 57%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Haugesund's trading profile (53 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not.
Stromsgodset's trading profile (53 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 30% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Haugesund 1.11 PPG, Stromsgodset 1.13 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Haugesund win broke the near-deadlock. Haugesund (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.50 average — tighter than their form line. Stromsgodset (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.88 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 1.81 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.