Haugesund 3-1 Sarpsborg 08 FF – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Sarpsborg 08 FF at 43%, yet other data sources diverge — this Haugesund vs Sarpsborg 08 FF fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Haugesund host Sarpsborg 08 FF at Haugesund Sparebank Arena in Eliteserien, Regular Season - 15. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 24 July 2022 at 17:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Haugesund stand at 3W 4D 3L from 10 Eliteserien matches — 1.30 PPG. Last five: D W L D L. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.50 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Haugesund, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Haugesund at Haugesund Sparebank Arena this season: 2W 3D 5L from 10 home games — 0.90 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Sarpsborg 08 FF — All Games: 4W 0D 6L from 10 Eliteserien fixtures this season — 1.20 PPG. Last five: W L W L L. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Sarpsborg 08 FF, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Sarpsborg 08 FF away from home this season: 6W 0D 4L from 10 away games — 1.80 PPG on the road. They are averaging 2.50 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.80 exceeds their overall 1.20 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Haugesund 1.30 PPG, Sarpsborg 08 FF 1.20 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
Both teams score in over 80% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 2 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Haugesund, 0 for Sarpsborg 08 FF and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The last 2 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 1.5 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 12 Sep 2021, ended 2–1 with Haugesund winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.5 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Profile
Haugesund in-play tendencies (44 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 76% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
Sarpsborg 08 FF in-play tendencies (44 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 39%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Haugesund 59% and Sarpsborg 08 FF 61% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Haugesund 64% | Sarpsborg 08 FF 59%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Haugesund 2.04 xG and Sarpsborg 08 FF 2.21 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Haugesund attack 1.053 / defence 1.187 | Sarpsborg 08 FF attack 1.410 / defence 1.243. League average goals — home 1.559 / away 1.323. Sarpsborg 08 FF bring a strong defensive rating of 1.243 — this is suppressing Haugesund's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Sarpsborg 08 FF have an above-average attack strength of 1.410 — the away xG of 2.21 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 45 Haugesund games / 44 Sarpsborg 08 FF games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Haugesund 37% | Draw 20% | Sarpsborg 08 FF 43%. Fair-value odds: Haugesund 2.70 | Draw 5.00 | Sarpsborg 08 FF 2.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 20% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 80% | BTTS probability 77% | Total xG 4.25. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 80% — a total xG of 4.25 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 77% reflects that both xG figures (2.04 / 2.21) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Sarpsborg 08 FF as the most likely outcome at 43% — marginal model lean. The opposing side holds a 37% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 4.25 combined xG gives a 80% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.8 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 77% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Haugesund 80% | Sarpsborg 08 FF 80% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 37% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Haugesund vs Sarpsborg 08 FF | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 15 | Venue: Haugesund Sparebank Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 24 Jul 2022, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Haugesund 37% | Draw 20% | Sarpsborg 08 FF 43% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 80% | BTTS 77% | xG Haugesund 2.04 / Sarpsborg 08 FF 2.21 • Poisson strength factors: Haugesund attack 1.053 / def 1.187 | Sarpsborg 08 FF attack 1.410 / def 1.243 | league avg home 1.559 / away 1.323 • Poisson stance: Sarpsborg 08 FF (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
2.04
Haugesund xG
Expected Goals
2.21
Sarpsborg 08 FF xG
77%
BTTS
93%
Over 1.5
80%
Over 2.5
61%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Haugesund vs Sarpsborg 08 FF kick off?
Haugesund vs Sarpsborg 08 FF kicked off at 17:00 on Sunday 24 July 2022 at Haugesund Sparebank Arena.
What was the final score in Haugesund vs Sarpsborg 08 FF?
Haugesund 3 - 1 Sarpsborg 08 FF.
Where is Haugesund vs Sarpsborg 08 FF being played?
The match is being played at Haugesund Sparebank Arena.
What competition is Haugesund vs Sarpsborg 08 FF part of?
Haugesund vs Sarpsborg 08 FF is a Regular Season - 15 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Haugesund vs Sarpsborg 08 FF?
Our statistical model gives Haugesund a 37% chance of winning, Sarpsborg 08 FF a 43% chance, and a 20% chance of a draw — making Sarpsborg 08 FF the favourite.
Will both teams score in Haugesund vs Sarpsborg 08 FF?
Our model estimates a 77% probability that both Haugesund and Sarpsborg 08 FF will score (BTTS).
Will Haugesund vs Sarpsborg 08 FF have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 80%.
What is the head-to-head record between Haugesund and Sarpsborg 08 FF?
Record (2 meetings): Haugesund 1W | Draws 1 | Sarpsborg 08 FF 0W.
What form are Haugesund and Sarpsborg 08 FF in?
Haugesund (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-W-L-D-L. Sarpsborg 08 FF (all comps): 4W-0D-6L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.70 | L5 W-L-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Haugesund's attack rating (1.05) and Sarpsborg 08 FF's defence rating (1.24), the model arrives at 2.04 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Sarpsborg 08 FF's attack versus Haugesund's defence, projects 2.21 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 45/44 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 7.3%. Close behind: 2-2 (7.2%), 1-2 (7.1%). Together the top three scorelines make up 22% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Sarpsborg 08 FF Win
37%
2.72
20%
5.01
43%
2.31
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 2
7.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
7.1%
Away win
2 – 1
6.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.04
Haugesund xG
Total xG
4.25
2.21
Sarpsborg 08 FF xG
2.72
37%
Home win
5.01
20%
Draw
2.31
43%
Away win
Goals Markets
93%
Over 1.5
1.08
7%
Under 1.5
14.29
80%
Over 2.5
1.25
20%
Under 2.5
5.00
61%
Over 3.5
1.64
39%
Under 3.5
2.56
42%
Over 4.5
2.38
58%
Under 4.5
1.72
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
77%
BTTS Yes
1.29
23%
BTTS No
4.44
Clean Sheet
11%
9.15
13%
7.68
Win to Nil
4%
24.90
6%
17.75
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1.4 | 3.1 | 3.5 | 2.6 | 1.4 | 0.6 |
| 1 | 2.9 | 6.4 | 7.1 | 5.2 | 2.9 | 1.3 |
| 2 | 3.0 | 6.5 | 7.2 | 5.3 | 3.0 | 1.3 |
| 3 | 2.0 | 4.4 | 4.9 | 3.6 | 2.0 | 0.9 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 2.3 | 2.5 | 1.9 | 1.0 | 0.5 |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.9 | 1.0 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.2 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Haugesund vs Sarpsborg 08 FF?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 7.3%.
How many goals are Haugesund and Sarpsborg 08 FF expected to score?
The model projects 2.04 expected goals for Haugesund and 2.21 for Sarpsborg 08 FF, a combined total of 4.25.
How confident is the prediction model for Haugesund vs Sarpsborg 08 FF?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 44 outings, Haugesund have picked up 1.07 PPG on a 12W 11D 21L record — D-W-L-D-L across the most recent five. The sample for Haugesund is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Sarpsborg 08 FF's form line: 17W 7D 20L from 44 games, 1.32 PPG, last five W-L-W-L-L. The sample for Sarpsborg 08 FF is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Haugesund on 1.07 PPG, Sarpsborg 08 FF on 1.32. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Haugesund have posted 1.62 PPG from 21 outings (10W 4D 7L). That's noticeably better than their 1.07 PPG overall — Haugesund are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Sarpsborg 08 FF have gone 8W 1D 12L from 21 away games — 1.19 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Haugesund come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Haugesund are averaging 1.52 goals scored and 1.64 conceded per game recently; Sarpsborg 08 FF are on 1.55 scored and 1.52 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Sarpsborg 08 FF in 61%.
Last 44 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Haugesund
Blended
Sarpsborg 08 FF
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Haugesund and Sarpsborg 08 FF in coming into this match?
Haugesund have gone 12W 11D 21L in their last 44 games (1.07 PPG), while Sarpsborg 08 FF have gone 17W 7D 20L in their last 44 (1.32 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Haugesund at home or Sarpsborg 08 FF away?
Haugesund's home record (1.62 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Haugesund at home: 1.62 PPG; Sarpsborg 08 FF away: 1.19 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Haugesund and Sarpsborg 08 FF runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to May 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. They last met on 10 August 2025, roughly 12 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 8 Oct 2022, when Sarpsborg 08 FF won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Haugesund's record when hosting Sarpsborg 08 FF specifically: 3W 1D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Haugesund
3
Draws
4
Sarpsborg 08 FF
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Haugesund and Sarpsborg 08 FF?
From 10 meetings on record, Haugesund have won 3, Sarpsborg 08 FF have won 4, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Haugesund and Sarpsborg 08 FF last play each other?
They last met on 10 August 2025, when Haugesund 3-2 Sarpsborg 08 FF.
Who has won more matches between Haugesund and Sarpsborg 08 FF?
Sarpsborg 08 FF have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Haugesund are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches.
Sarpsborg 08 FF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Haugesund 62%, Sarpsborg 08 FF 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 76% for Haugesund and 71% for Sarpsborg 08 FF. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 43% and 52% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Haugesund home games / Sarpsborg 08 FF away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Haugesund play Sarpsborg 08 FF?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 62% of Haugesund's games and 67% of Sarpsborg 08 FF's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Haugesund vs Sarpsborg 08 FF usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 76% of Haugesund's matches and 71% of Sarpsborg 08 FF's.
Do Haugesund and Sarpsborg 08 FF tend to score early?
Haugesund have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, Sarpsborg 08 FF in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Haugesund cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Sarpsborg 08 FF.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Haugesund beat Sarpsborg 08 FF 3-1 at Haugesund Sparebank Arena, Regular Season - 15, in the Eliteserien. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Haugesund 2.04 xG and Sarpsborg 08 FF 2.21 xG, a combined 4.25. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Haugesund beat their projection by 1.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Sarpsborg 08 FF landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Haugesund attack 1.05 / defence 1.19 against Sarpsborg 08 FF attack 1.41 / defence 1.24, drawn from 45/44 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Haugesund 37% | Draw 20% | Sarpsborg 08 FF 43%, with Sarpsborg 08 FF to win its most likely call at 43%. The actual Haugesund win had been the model's second-ranked read at 37%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 80%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 93% and landed. Over 3.5 was 61% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 77% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 61% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Haugesund 64%, Sarpsborg 08 FF 59%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Haugesund's trading profile (44 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.
Sarpsborg 08 FF's trading profile (44 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Haugesund 1.07 PPG, Sarpsborg 08 FF 1.32 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Haugesund win broke the near-deadlock. Haugesund (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.95 average — above their attacking norm. Sarpsborg 08 FF (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 2.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.