Haugesund 3-2 Sandefjord – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Sandefjord at 43%, yet other data sources diverge — this Haugesund vs Sandefjord fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Sandefjord make the trip to Haugesund Stadion to face Haugesund in Eliteserien, Regular Season - 25. The match kicks off on Sunday 22 November 2020 at 17:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Haugesund have collected 1.60 PPG across 10 Eliteserien outings this season: 5W 1D 4L. Last five: L W W L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.70 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Haugesund, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Haugesund's form when playing at home: 5W 1D 4L across 10 games at Haugesund Stadion this term (1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.
Sandefjord (all games): 3W 3D 4L across 10 Eliteserien outings this term — 1.20 points per game. Last five: L L W D D. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Sandefjord, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Sandefjord's form when playing away from home: 4W 0D 6L across 10 road games this term (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.60 for Haugesund, 1.20 for Sandefjord — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
Trading Data
Haugesund goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (24 games, 12 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (home games).
Sandefjord goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (24 games, 12 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Haugesund 50% versus Sandefjord 46%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Haugesund 54% | Sandefjord 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Haugesund 1.21 xG and Sandefjord 1.49 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Haugesund attack 0.874 / defence 1.287 | Sandefjord attack 0.863 / defence 1.000. League average goals — home 1.386 / away 1.340. Data: 24 Haugesund games / 24 Sandefjord games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Haugesund 30% | Draw 27% | Sandefjord 43%. Fair-value odds: Haugesund 3.33 | Draw 3.70 | Sandefjord 2.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.70. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.70 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Sandefjord at 43% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Sandefjord if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.70 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 51% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 55% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Haugesund 40% | Sandefjord 60%.
The outsider holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Haugesund vs Sandefjord | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 25 | Venue: Haugesund Stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 22 Nov 2020, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Haugesund 30% | Draw 27% | Sandefjord 43% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% | BTTS 55% | xG Haugesund 1.21 / Sandefjord 1.49 • Poisson strength factors: Haugesund attack 0.874 / def 1.287 | Sandefjord attack 0.863 / def 1.000 | league avg home 1.386 / away 1.340 • Poisson stance: Sandefjord (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.21
Haugesund xG
Expected Goals
1.49
Sandefjord xG
55%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Haugesund vs Sandefjord kick off?
Haugesund vs Sandefjord kicked off at 17:00 on Sunday 22 November 2020 at Haugesund Stadion.
What was the final score in Haugesund vs Sandefjord?
Haugesund 3 - 2 Sandefjord.
Where is Haugesund vs Sandefjord being played?
The match is being played at Haugesund Stadion.
What competition is Haugesund vs Sandefjord part of?
Haugesund vs Sandefjord is a Regular Season - 25 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Haugesund vs Sandefjord?
Our statistical model gives Haugesund a 30% chance of winning, Sandefjord a 43% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Sandefjord the favourite.
Will both teams score in Haugesund vs Sandefjord?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Haugesund and Sandefjord will score (BTTS).
Will Haugesund vs Sandefjord have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%.
What is the head-to-head record between Haugesund and Sandefjord?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Haugesund and Sandefjord in?
Haugesund (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-W-W-L-W. Sandefjord (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-L-W-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Haugesund's attack at 0.87x the league average against Sandefjord's defence at 1.00x — combine the two and it projects 1.21 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Sandefjord's attack (0.86x) against Haugesund's defence (1.29x) — and the away total comes out at 1.49.
These ratings are built from 24/24 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (9.0%), 0-1 (8.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Sandefjord Win
30%
3.33
27%
3.67
43%
2.34
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.1%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.0%
Away win
1 – 2
9.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.21
Haugesund xG
Total xG
2.70
1.49
Sandefjord xG
3.33
30%
Home win
3.67
27%
Draw
2.34
43%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.81
45%
BTTS No
2.23
Clean Sheet
23%
4.44
30%
3.36
Win to Nil
7%
14.79
13%
7.85
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.7 | 10.0 | 7.4 | 3.7 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 8.1 | 12.1 | 9.0 | 4.5 | 1.7 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 4.9 | 7.3 | 5.5 | 2.7 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.0 | 3.0 | 2.2 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.9 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Haugesund vs Sandefjord?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.7%.
How many goals are Haugesund and Sandefjord expected to score?
The model projects 1.21 expected goals for Haugesund and 1.49 for Sandefjord, a combined total of 2.70.
How confident is the prediction model for Haugesund vs Sandefjord?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Haugesund come into this having played 24 games, going 9W 4D 11L for 1.29 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-W-L-W. The sample for Haugesund is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Sandefjord sit at 1.17 PPG from 24 outings (8W 4D 12L), a run that reads L-L-W-D-D across their last five. The sample for Sandefjord is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.29 PPG for Haugesund against 1.17 for Sandefjord. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Haugesund's home form reads 5W 2D 5L across 12 games on their own ground, a 1.42 PPG return.
Away from home, Sandefjord have taken 1.25 points per game from 12 outings (5W 0D 7L).
Attack vs Defence
Haugesund are averaging 1.21 goals scored and 1.58 conceded per game recently; Sandefjord are on 1.04 scored and 1.54 conceded.
Last 24 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Haugesund
Blended
Sandefjord
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Haugesund and Sandefjord in coming into this match?
Haugesund have gone 9W 4D 11L in their last 24 games (1.29 PPG), while Sandefjord have gone 8W 4D 12L in their last 24 (1.17 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Haugesund at home or Sandefjord away?
Haugesund's home record (1.42 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Haugesund at home: 1.42 PPG; Sandefjord away: 1.25 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to July 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. They last met on 29 September 2025, roughly 10 months ago.
Notable Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Sandefjord have taken the last 3 head-to-head results.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Sandefjord won 4-0 on 22 Jun 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Haugesund have gone 2W 0D 3L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Sandefjord — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Haugesund
3
Draws
5
Sandefjord
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Haugesund and Sandefjord?
From 10 meetings on record, Haugesund have won 2, Sandefjord have won 5, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Haugesund and Sandefjord last play each other?
They last met on 29 September 2025, when Haugesund 2-3 Sandefjord.
Who has won more matches between Haugesund and Sandefjord?
Sandefjord have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Haugesund are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Sandefjord are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 42% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Haugesund 50%, Sandefjord 58% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 58% (Haugesund) and 58% (Sandefjord). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 33% and 25% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Haugesund home games / Sandefjord away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Haugesund play Sandefjord?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Haugesund's recent matches and 58% of Sandefjord's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Haugesund vs Sandefjord usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 58% of Haugesund's matches and 58% of Sandefjord's.
Do Haugesund and Sandefjord tend to score early?
Haugesund have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Sandefjord in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Haugesund defy the odds to beat Sandefjord 3-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Haugesund beat Sandefjord 3-2 at Haugesund Stadion, Regular Season - 25, in the Eliteserien. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Haugesund 1.21 xG and Sandefjord 1.49 xG, a combined 2.70. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. Haugesund beat their projection by 1.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Haugesund attack 0.87 / defence 1.29 against Sandefjord attack 0.86 / defence 1.00, drawn from 24/24 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Haugesund 30% | Draw 27% | Sandefjord 43%, with Sandefjord to win its most likely call at 43%. The actual Haugesund win had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. Over 3.5 was 29% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Haugesund 54%, Sandefjord 54%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Haugesund's trading profile (24 games, 12 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
Sandefjord's trading profile (24 games, 12 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Haugesund 1.29 PPG, Sandefjord 1.17 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Haugesund win broke the near-deadlock. Haugesund (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.50 average — above their attacking norm. Sandefjord (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.67 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.