Ham-Kam 0-1 Stromsgodset – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Stromsgodset at 37%, yet other data sources diverge — this Ham-Kam vs Stromsgodset fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Ham-Kam host Stromsgodset at Briskeby Arena in Eliteserien, Regular Season - 4. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 21 April 2024 at 13:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Ham-Kam stand at 3W 2D 5L from 10 Eliteserien matches — 1.10 PPG. Last five: L W W L D. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
Ham-Kam at Briskeby Arena this season: 4W 2D 4L from 10 home games — 1.40 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game.
Stromsgodset — All Games: 5W 1D 4L from 10 Eliteserien fixtures this season — 1.60 PPG. Last five: W W L W W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
Stromsgodset away from home this season: 5W 0D 5L from 10 away games — 1.50 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Stromsgodset are 0.50 PPG ahead (1.60 vs 1.10), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 4 previous encounters have yielded 2 wins for Ham-Kam, 0 for Stromsgodset and 2 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The last 4 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 1.8 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 12 Nov 2023, ended 1–0 with Ham-Kam winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.8 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Patterns
Ham-Kam in-play and half-time data (60 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 59% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).
Stromsgodset in-play and half-time data (60 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (away games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Ham-Kam 57% versus Stromsgodset 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Ham-Kam 57% | Stromsgodset 55%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Ham-Kam 1.34 xG and Stromsgodset 1.35 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ham-Kam attack 0.882 / defence 0.967 | Stromsgodset attack 0.994 / defence 1.211. League average goals — home 1.253 / away 1.404. Stromsgodset bring a strong defensive rating of 1.211 — this is suppressing Ham-Kam's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 34 Ham-Kam games / 33 Stromsgodset games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Ham-Kam 37% | Draw 26% | Stromsgodset 37%. Fair-value odds: Ham-Kam 2.70 | Draw 3.85 | Stromsgodset 2.70. The draw (26%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.69. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.69 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
Ham-Kam dominate the H2H record, yet Stromsgodset are the in-form side right now — historical edge versus current momentum creates a genuine dilemma.
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 26% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 37% and away win at 37% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
Poisson projects 2.69 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 50% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though H2H averaging only 1.8 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 55%. This conflicts with form data: Ham-Kam 40% | Stromsgodset 20% from recent games — a notable divergence.
The outsider holds a 37% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (33 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Ham-Kam vs Stromsgodset | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 4 | Venue: Briskeby Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 21 Apr 2024, 13:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Ham-Kam 37% | Draw 26% | Stromsgodset 37% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% | BTTS 55% | xG Ham-Kam 1.34 / Stromsgodset 1.35 • Poisson strength factors: Ham-Kam attack 0.882 / def 0.967 | Stromsgodset attack 0.994 / def 1.211 | league avg home 1.253 / away 1.404 • Poisson stance: Draw (26%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.34
Ham-Kam xG
Expected Goals
1.35
Stromsgodset xG
55%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Ham-Kam vs Stromsgodset kick off?
Ham-Kam vs Stromsgodset kicked off at 13:30 on Sunday 21 April 2024 at Briskeby Arena.
What was the final score in Ham-Kam vs Stromsgodset?
Ham-Kam 0 - 1 Stromsgodset.
Where is Ham-Kam vs Stromsgodset being played?
The match is being played at Briskeby Arena.
What competition is Ham-Kam vs Stromsgodset part of?
Ham-Kam vs Stromsgodset is a Regular Season - 4 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Ham-Kam vs Stromsgodset?
Our statistical model gives Ham-Kam a 37% chance of winning, Stromsgodset a 37% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Ham-Kam vs Stromsgodset?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Ham-Kam and Stromsgodset will score (BTTS).
Will Ham-Kam vs Stromsgodset have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50%.
What is the head-to-head record between Ham-Kam and Stromsgodset?
Record (4 meetings): Ham-Kam 2W | Draws 2 | Stromsgodset 0W.
What form are Ham-Kam and Stromsgodset in?
Ham-Kam (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-W-W-L-D. Stromsgodset (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-W-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Ham-Kam's attacking strength (0.88x league average) is weighed against Stromsgodset's defensive record (1.21x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.34. The same calculation in reverse, Stromsgodset's attack versus Ham-Kam's defence, projects 1.35 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (34/33 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.9%. Close behind: 0-0 (8.4%), 1-2 (8.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Stromsgodset Win
37%
2.72
26%
3.86
37%
2.68
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.3%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
9.2%
Away win
1 – 0
9.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.34
Ham-Kam xG
Total xG
2.69
1.35
Stromsgodset xG
2.72
37%
Home win
3.86
26%
Draw
2.68
37%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.83
45%
BTTS No
2.21
Clean Sheet
26%
3.86
26%
3.82
Win to Nil
10%
10.48
10%
10.22
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.8 | 9.2 | 6.2 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 9.1 | 12.3 | 8.3 | 3.7 | 1.3 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.1 | 8.2 | 5.6 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.7 | 3.7 | 2.5 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.2 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Ham-Kam vs Stromsgodset?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.9%.
How many goals are Ham-Kam and Stromsgodset expected to score?
The model projects 1.34 expected goals for Ham-Kam and 1.35 for Stromsgodset, a combined total of 2.69.
How confident is the prediction model for Ham-Kam vs Stromsgodset?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Ham-Kam's recent record stands at 16W 17D 27L from 60 games, a 1.08 PPG return, with L-W-W-L-D in the last five.
Stromsgodset, meanwhile, have gone 22W 9D 29L across 60 games — 1.25 PPG, with W-W-L-W-W in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Ham-Kam on 1.08 PPG, Stromsgodset on 1.25. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Ham-Kam have managed 10W 9D 11L from 30 games — 1.30 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Stromsgodset's away record stands at 7W 6D 17L across 30 trips, a 0.90 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Ham-Kam come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Ham-Kam are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game recently; Stromsgodset are on 1.35 scored and 1.50 conceded.
Last 60 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Ham-Kam
Current Season
Stromsgodset
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Ham-Kam and Stromsgodset in coming into this match?
Ham-Kam have gone 16W 17D 27L in their last 60 games (1.08 PPG), while Stromsgodset have gone 22W 9D 29L in their last 60 (1.25 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Ham-Kam at home or Stromsgodset away?
Ham-Kam's home record (1.30 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Ham-Kam at home: 1.30 PPG; Stromsgodset away: 0.90 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Ham-Kam and Stromsgodset runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to July 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. They last met on 14 September 2025, roughly 10 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 31 May 2025, when Ham-Kam won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Ham-Kam's record when hosting Stromsgodset specifically: 1W 1D 2L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
3
Ham-Kam
3
Draws
2
Stromsgodset
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Ham-Kam and Stromsgodset?
From 8 meetings on record, Ham-Kam have won 3, Stromsgodset have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Ham-Kam and Stromsgodset last play each other?
They last met on 14 September 2025, when Ham-Kam 1-2 Stromsgodset.
Who has won more matches between Ham-Kam and Stromsgodset?
Ham-Kam have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Ham-Kam are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
Stromsgodset see a goal before the break in 57% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Ham-Kam 47%, Stromsgodset 40% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Ham-Kam) and 43% (Stromsgodset).
On the defensive side: Ham-Kam have failed to score in 33% of games; Stromsgodset in 43%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Ham-Kam home games / Stromsgodset away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Ham-Kam play Stromsgodset?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 47% of Ham-Kam's recent matches and 40% of Stromsgodset's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Ham-Kam vs Stromsgodset usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Ham-Kam's recent games and 43% of Stromsgodset's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Ham-Kam and Stromsgodset tend to score early?
Ham-Kam have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Stromsgodset in 57% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Stromsgodset edge out Ham-Kam 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Stromsgodset beat Ham-Kam 0-1 at Briskeby Arena, Regular Season - 4, in the Eliteserien. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Ham-Kam 1.34 xG and Stromsgodset 1.35 xG, a combined 2.69. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Ham-Kam fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ham-Kam attack 0.88 / defence 0.97 against Stromsgodset attack 0.99 / defence 1.21, drawn from 34/33 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Ham-Kam 37% | Draw 26% | Stromsgodset 37%, with Ham-Kam to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual Stromsgodset win had been the model's second-ranked read at 37%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 75% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Ham-Kam 57%, Stromsgodset 55%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Ham-Kam's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 28% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Stromsgodset's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Ham-Kam 1.08 PPG, Stromsgodset 1.25 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Stromsgodset win broke the near-deadlock. Ham-Kam (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.27 scoring average — below par going forward. Stromsgodset (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.67 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.