Ham-Kam 1-1 Sandefjord – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Ham-Kam at 42% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Ham-Kam vs Sandefjord encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Eliteserien clash, Regular Season - 21 as Ham-Kam welcome Sandefjord to Briskeby Arena. Kick-off is set for Sunday 1 September 2024 at 16:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Ham-Kam — All Games: 4W 2D 4L from 10 Eliteserien outings this season, averaging 1.40 points per game. Last five: L D W W L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Ham-Kam, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Ham-Kam have posted 2W 3D 5L at Briskeby Arena — 0.90 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Across all Eliteserien games this season, Sandefjord have recorded 3W 4D 3L from 10 outings — 1.30 PPG. Last five: W W L D W. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.70. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Sandefjord, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Sandefjord's away record: 0W 4D 6L from 10 road trips in Eliteserien this season (0.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.40 is notably below their overall 1.30 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.40 PPG (Ham-Kam) versus 1.30 (Sandefjord). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
Head to Head
The historical ledger comes down firmly in favour of Ham-Kam: 5 wins from 5 previous clashes against 0 for Sandefjord, with 0 draws across those contests.
The 5 previous meetings have averaged 2.4 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 27 Jun 2024, ended 2–1 with Ham-Kam winning.
The historical record gives Ham-Kam a meaningful edge here — 5 wins from 5 meetings is the kind of ledger that should not be discounted when the form picture is inconclusive. Even away from home, the visitors have struggled to impose themselves in this fixture.
In-Play Data
Ham-Kam trading profile (49 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 61% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; BTTS occurs in 35% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (home games); they fail to score in 37% of games.
Sandefjord trading profile (49 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 70% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 41%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Ham-Kam 45% versus Sandefjord 63%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Ham-Kam 53% | Sandefjord 63%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Ham-Kam 1.41 xG and Sandefjord 1.16 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ham-Kam attack 0.829 / defence 0.947 | Sandefjord attack 0.959 / defence 1.116. League average goals — home 1.519 / away 1.282. Data: 50 Ham-Kam games / 49 Sandefjord games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Ham-Kam 42% | Draw 26% | Sandefjord 31%. Fair-value odds: Ham-Kam 2.38 | Draw 3.85 | Sandefjord 3.23. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.57. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.57 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Ham-Kam at 42% — marginal model lean. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Ham-Kam offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.57 combined xG gives a 47% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 52% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Ham-Kam 30% | Sandefjord 80% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Ham-Kam vs Sandefjord | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 21 | Venue: Briskeby Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 1 Sep 2024, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Ham-Kam 42% | Draw 26% | Sandefjord 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% | BTTS 52% | xG Ham-Kam 1.41 / Sandefjord 1.16 • Poisson strength factors: Ham-Kam attack 0.829 / def 0.947 | Sandefjord attack 0.959 / def 1.116 | league avg home 1.519 / away 1.282 • Poisson stance: Ham-Kam (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.41
Ham-Kam xG
Expected Goals
1.16
Sandefjord xG
52%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Ham-Kam vs Sandefjord kick off?
Ham-Kam vs Sandefjord kicked off at 16:00 on Sunday 1 September 2024 at Briskeby Arena.
What was the final score in Ham-Kam vs Sandefjord?
Ham-Kam 1 - 1 Sandefjord.
Where is Ham-Kam vs Sandefjord being played?
The match is being played at Briskeby Arena.
What competition is Ham-Kam vs Sandefjord part of?
Ham-Kam vs Sandefjord is a Regular Season - 21 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Ham-Kam vs Sandefjord?
Our statistical model gives Ham-Kam a 42% chance of winning, Sandefjord a 31% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Ham-Kam the favourite.
Will both teams score in Ham-Kam vs Sandefjord?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Ham-Kam and Sandefjord will score (BTTS).
Will Ham-Kam vs Sandefjord have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%.
What is the head-to-head record between Ham-Kam and Sandefjord?
Record (5 meetings): Ham-Kam 5W | Draws 0 | Sandefjord 0W.
What form are Ham-Kam and Sandefjord in?
Ham-Kam (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-D-W-W-L. Sandefjord (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.70 | L5 W-W-L-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Ham-Kam's attack at 0.83x the league average against Sandefjord's defence at 1.12x — combine the two and it projects 1.41 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Sandefjord's attack versus Ham-Kam's defence, projects 1.16 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 50/49 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (9.3%), 1-0 (9.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Ham-Kam Win
42%
2.35
26%
3.80
31%
3.21
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.8%
Home win
0 – 1
8.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.41
Ham-Kam xG
Total xG
2.57
1.16
Sandefjord xG
2.35
42%
Home win
3.80
26%
Draw
3.21
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.93
48%
BTTS No
2.08
Clean Sheet
31%
3.20
25%
4.08
Win to Nil
13%
7.54
8%
13.08
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.7 | 8.9 | 5.2 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.8 | 12.5 | 7.3 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.6 | 8.8 | 5.1 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.5 | 4.1 | 2.4 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.4 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Ham-Kam vs Sandefjord?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.2%.
How many goals are Ham-Kam and Sandefjord expected to score?
The model projects 1.41 expected goals for Ham-Kam and 1.16 for Sandefjord, a combined total of 2.57.
How confident is the prediction model for Ham-Kam vs Sandefjord?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Ham-Kam come into this having played 49 games, going 15W 10D 24L for 1.12 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-W-W-L. The sample for Ham-Kam is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Sandefjord sit at 1.04 PPG from 49 outings (13W 12D 24L), a run that reads W-W-L-D-W across their last five. The sample for Sandefjord is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Ham-Kam on 1.12 PPG, Sandefjord on 1.04. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Ham-Kam's home form reads 7W 6D 10L across 23 games on their own ground, a 1.17 PPG return.
Away from home, Sandefjord have taken 0.52 points per game from 23 outings (2W 6D 15L). That's a step down from their 1.04 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Sandefjord's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Ham-Kam come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Ham-Kam are averaging 1.22 goals scored and 1.69 conceded per game recently; Sandefjord are on 1.53 scored and 1.78 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Sandefjord in 63%.
Last 49 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Ham-Kam
Blended
Sandefjord
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Ham-Kam and Sandefjord in coming into this match?
Ham-Kam have gone 15W 10D 24L in their last 49 games (1.12 PPG), while Sandefjord have gone 13W 12D 24L in their last 49 (1.04 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Ham-Kam at home or Sandefjord away?
Ham-Kam's home record (1.17 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Ham-Kam at home: 1.17 PPG; Sandefjord away: 0.52 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Ham-Kam and Sandefjord runs to 9 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to April 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. The two were last together as recently as 12 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 18 Apr 2022, when Ham-Kam won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Ham-Kam's record when hosting Sandefjord specifically: 3W 1D 0L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 9 Meetings
6
Ham-Kam
2
Draws
1
Sandefjord
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Ham-Kam and Sandefjord?
From 9 meetings on record, Ham-Kam have won 6, Sandefjord have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Ham-Kam and Sandefjord last play each other?
They last met on 12 July 2026, when Sandefjord 2-2 Ham-Kam.
Who has won more matches between Ham-Kam and Sandefjord?
Ham-Kam have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 9 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Ham-Kam are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 61% of their matches.
Sandefjord are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Ham-Kam 35%, Sandefjord 70% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 48% (Ham-Kam) and 65% (Sandefjord). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 22% and 44% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Ham-Kam keep a clean sheet in 30% of their matches; Ham-Kam have failed to score in 44% of games; Sandefjord in 26%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Ham-Kam home games / Sandefjord away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Ham-Kam play Sandefjord?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 35% of Ham-Kam's recent matches and 70% of Sandefjord's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Ham-Kam vs Sandefjord usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 48% of Ham-Kam's matches and 65% of Sandefjord's.
Do Ham-Kam and Sandefjord tend to score early?
Ham-Kam have had a goal before half-time in 61% of their recent matches, Sandefjord in 65% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Ham-Kam and Sandefjord share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Ham-Kam and Sandefjord finished level at 1-1 at Briskeby Arena, Regular Season - 21, in the Eliteserien. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Ham-Kam 1.41 xG and Sandefjord 1.16 xG, a combined 2.57. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ham-Kam attack 0.83 / defence 0.95 against Sandefjord attack 0.96 / defence 1.12, drawn from 50/49 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Ham-Kam 42% | Draw 26% | Sandefjord 31%, with Ham-Kam to win its most likely call at 42%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Ham-Kam 53%, Sandefjord 63%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Ham-Kam's trading profile (49 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did.
Sandefjord's trading profile (49 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Ham-Kam 1.12 PPG, Sandefjord 1.04 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Sandefjord (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.26 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.