Ham-Kam 2-0 Lillestrom – Result & Analysis

Poisson rates Ham-Kam at 44% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Ham-Kam vs Lillestrom encounter.

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Pre-Match Analysis

Ham-Kam and Lillestrom meet at Briskeby Arena in Eliteserien, Regular Season - 10. This fixture gets under way on Monday 25 May 2026 at 15:00 UTC.

Current Form

Ham-Kam's overall Eliteserien record this term: 5W 1D 4L from 10 games (1.60 PPG). Last five: W W L W L. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.

In front of their own supporters this season, Ham-Kam have posted 5W 2D 3L at Briskeby Arena — 1.70 PPG. They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.

Lillestrom have collected 0.40 PPG across 10 Eliteserien outings this season: 1W 1D 8L. Last five: W L L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 2.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.50 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Lillestrom haven't played a Eliteserien game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.

Lillestrom away from home this season: 1W 0D 9L from 10 away games — 0.30 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 2.90 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.

The form ledger tips toward Ham-Kam. A 1.20 PPG lead over Lillestrom (1.60 vs 0.40) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.

In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Ham-Kam have seen both teams score in 70% of their games, Lillestrom in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.

H2H Analysis

The head-to-head record is closely matched — Ham-Kam lead 1W to 2W over the last 6 encounters, with 3 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.

These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.2 per game across 6 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 21 Sep 2024, ended 5–0 with Ham-Kam winning.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.2 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.

Trading Data

Ham-Kam goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (30 games, 15 at home): they score before half-time in 87% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 73% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 73% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 37%.

Lillestrom goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (30 games, 15 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 73% of games (away games); they fail to score in 37% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Ham-Kam 57% versus Lillestrom 53%; no strong lean in either direction. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Ham-Kam 63% | Lillestrom 70%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Ham-Kam 1.32 xG and Lillestrom 1.01 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ham-Kam attack 1.029 / defence 1.012 | Lillestrom attack 0.849 / defence 0.731. League average goals — home 1.756 / away 1.182. Lillestrom's defence strength of 0.731 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 38 Ham-Kam games / 10 Lillestrom games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Ham-Kam 44% | Draw 28% | Lillestrom 29%. Fair-value odds: Ham-Kam 2.27 | Draw 3.57 | Lillestrom 3.45. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 41% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.34. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 59% — total xG of 2.34 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Ham-Kam at 44% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Ham-Kam if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

On the goals line, Poisson's 2.34 combined xG gives a 41% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though form averaging only 3.5 goals per game and H2H averaging only 3.2 goals per meeting point in the other direction.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 47%. This conflicts with form data: Ham-Kam 70% | Lillestrom 60% from recent games — a notable divergence.

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