Ham-Kam 1-0 Kristiansund BK – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Ham-Kam at 51%, yet other data sources diverge — this Ham-Kam vs Kristiansund BK fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Eliteserien clash, Regular Season - 26 as Ham-Kam welcome Kristiansund BK to Briskeby Arena. Kick-off is set for Sunday 27 October 2024 at 16:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Eliteserien games this season, Ham-Kam have gone 3W 3D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.20 PPG return. Last five: D L W D L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Ham-Kam, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Ham-Kam's form when playing at home: 3W 4D 3L across 10 games at Briskeby Arena this term (1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Kristiansund BK stand at 3W 4D 3L from 10 Eliteserien matches — 1.30 PPG. Last five: L D L W D. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Kristiansund BK, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Kristiansund BK have gone 1W 3D 6L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.60 is notably below their overall 1.30 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Ham-Kam at 1.20 PPG versus Kristiansund BK's 1.30. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 3 previous meetings, Ham-Kam have won 0, Kristiansund BK 1, with 2 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 5 May 2024, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Ham-Kam in-play tendencies (27 games, 13 at home): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; BTTS occurs in 31% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 31% of games (home games); they fail to score in 41% of games.
Kristiansund BK in-play tendencies (27 games, 13 at away): they score before half-time in 54% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (away games); they fail to score in 37% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Ham-Kam 44% versus Kristiansund BK 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Ham-Kam 37% | Kristiansund BK 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Ham-Kam 1.41 xG and Kristiansund BK 0.81 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ham-Kam attack 0.901 / defence 0.950 | Kristiansund BK attack 0.693 / defence 1.028. League average goals — home 1.518 / away 1.227. Data: 55 Ham-Kam games / 25 Kristiansund BK games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Ham-Kam 51% | Draw 27% | Kristiansund BK 22%. Fair-value odds: Ham-Kam 1.96 | Draw 3.70 | Kristiansund BK 4.55. Ham-Kam hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 38% | BTTS probability 42% | Total xG 2.21. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 62% — total xG of 2.21 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 42% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Ham-Kam as the most likely outcome at 51% — moderate model lean. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Ham-Kam offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.21 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 38% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 42% on No. Form rates corroborate: Ham-Kam 40% | Kristiansund BK 40% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Ham-Kam vs Kristiansund BK | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 26 | Venue: Briskeby Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 27 Oct 2024, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Ham-Kam 51% | Draw 27% | Kristiansund BK 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 38% | BTTS 42% | xG Ham-Kam 1.41 / Kristiansund BK 0.81 • Poisson strength factors: Ham-Kam attack 0.901 / def 0.950 | Kristiansund BK attack 0.693 / def 1.028 | league avg home 1.518 / away 1.227 • Poisson stance: Ham-Kam (51%) — moderate lean
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
1.41
Ham-Kam xG
Expected Goals
0.81
Kristiansund BK xG
42%
BTTS
65%
Over 1.5
38%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Ham-Kam vs Kristiansund BK kick off?
Ham-Kam vs Kristiansund BK kicked off at 16:00 on Sunday 27 October 2024 at Briskeby Arena.
What was the final score in Ham-Kam vs Kristiansund BK?
Ham-Kam 1 - 0 Kristiansund BK.
Where is Ham-Kam vs Kristiansund BK being played?
The match is being played at Briskeby Arena.
What competition is Ham-Kam vs Kristiansund BK part of?
Ham-Kam vs Kristiansund BK is a Regular Season - 26 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Ham-Kam vs Kristiansund BK?
Our statistical model gives Ham-Kam a 51% chance of winning, Kristiansund BK a 22% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Ham-Kam the favourite.
Will both teams score in Ham-Kam vs Kristiansund BK?
Our model estimates a 42% probability that both Ham-Kam and Kristiansund BK will score (BTTS).
Will Ham-Kam vs Kristiansund BK have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 38%.
What is the head-to-head record between Ham-Kam and Kristiansund BK?
Record (3 meetings): Ham-Kam 0W | Draws 2 | Kristiansund BK 1W.
What form are Ham-Kam and Kristiansund BK in?
Ham-Kam (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-L-W-D-L. Kristiansund BK (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-D-L-W-D.
What do the betting odds say about Ham-Kam vs Kristiansund BK?
Odds data is not currently available for this fixture.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Ham-Kam's attack at 0.90x the league average against Kristiansund BK's defence at 1.03x — combine the two and it projects 1.41 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Kristiansund BK's attack versus Ham-Kam's defence, projects 0.81 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 55/25 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (13.7%), 0-0 (12.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Ham-Kam Win
51%
1.96
27%
3.66
22%
4.64
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.4%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.4%
Draw
0 – 0
10.9%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.41
Ham-Kam xG
Total xG
2.21
0.81
Kristiansund BK xG
1.96
51%
Home win
3.66
27%
Draw
4.64
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
65%
Over 1.5
1.54
35%
Under 1.5
2.86
38%
Over 2.5
2.63
62%
Under 2.5
1.61
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
42%
BTTS Yes
2.39
58%
BTTS No
1.72
Clean Sheet
45%
2.24
25%
4.08
Win to Nil
23%
4.39
5%
18.92
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.9 | 8.8 | 3.6 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 15.4 | 12.4 | 5.0 | 1.4 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 10.8 | 8.7 | 3.5 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 5.1 | 4.1 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.8 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Ham-Kam vs Kristiansund BK?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.0%.
How many goals are Ham-Kam and Kristiansund BK expected to score?
The model projects 1.41 expected goals for Ham-Kam and 0.81 for Kristiansund BK, a combined total of 2.21.
How confident is the prediction model for Ham-Kam vs Kristiansund BK?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 27 outings, Ham-Kam have picked up 1.11 PPG on a 7W 9D 11L record — D-L-W-D-L across the most recent five. The sample for Ham-Kam is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Kristiansund BK's form line: 8W 9D 10L from 27 games, 1.22 PPG, last five L-D-L-W-D. The sample for Kristiansund BK is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Ham-Kam on 1.11 PPG, Kristiansund BK on 1.22. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Ham-Kam have posted 1.00 PPG from 13 outings (3W 4D 6L).
On the road, Kristiansund BK have gone 3W 3D 7L from 13 away games — 0.92 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
Ham-Kam are averaging 1.15 goals scored and 1.26 conceded per game recently; Kristiansund BK are on 1.15 scored and 1.44 conceded.
Last 27 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Ham-Kam
Blended
Kristiansund BK
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Ham-Kam and Kristiansund BK in coming into this match?
Ham-Kam have gone 7W 9D 11L in their last 27 games (1.11 PPG), while Kristiansund BK have gone 8W 9D 10L in their last 27 (1.22 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Ham-Kam at home or Kristiansund BK away?
Ham-Kam's home record (1.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Ham-Kam at home: 1.00 PPG; Kristiansund BK away: 0.92 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Ham-Kam and Kristiansund BK runs to 7 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to April 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. The two were last together as recently as 3 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
Ham-Kam's record when hosting Kristiansund BK specifically: 2W 0D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 7 Meetings
3
Ham-Kam
3
Draws
1
Kristiansund BK
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Ham-Kam and Kristiansund BK?
From 7 meetings on record, Ham-Kam have won 3, Kristiansund BK have won 1, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Ham-Kam and Kristiansund BK last play each other?
They last met on 3 May 2026, when Kristiansund BK 1-1 Ham-Kam.
Who has won more matches between Ham-Kam and Kristiansund BK?
Ham-Kam have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 7 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Ham-Kam are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches.
Kristiansund BK see a goal before the break in 54% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 23% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
The Numbers That Matter
Clean sheets have been more common than shared scoring for these two — Ham-Kam 31% BTTS, Kristiansund BK 38%. That points toward BTTS No as the trading lean.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 31% for Ham-Kam and 38% for Kristiansund BK.
On the defensive side: Ham-Kam keep a clean sheet in 31% of their matches; Ham-Kam have failed to score in 46% of games; Kristiansund BK in 46%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Ham-Kam home games / Kristiansund BK away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Ham-Kam play Kristiansund BK?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 31% of Ham-Kam's recent matches and 38% of Kristiansund BK's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Ham-Kam vs Kristiansund BK usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 31% of Ham-Kam's recent games and 38% of Kristiansund BK's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Ham-Kam and Kristiansund BK tend to score early?
Ham-Kam have had a goal before half-time in 62% of their recent matches, Kristiansund BK in 54% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Ham-Kam edge out Kristiansund BK 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Ham-Kam beat Kristiansund BK 1-0 at Briskeby Arena, Regular Season - 26, in the Eliteserien. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Ham-Kam 1.41 xG and Kristiansund BK 0.81 xG, a combined 2.21. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Kristiansund BK landed 0.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ham-Kam attack 0.90 / defence 0.95 against Kristiansund BK attack 0.69 / defence 1.03, drawn from 55/25 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Ham-Kam 51% | Draw 27% | Kristiansund BK 22%, with Ham-Kam to win its most likely call at 51%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 38%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 65% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Ham-Kam 37%, Kristiansund BK 48%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Ham-Kam's trading profile (27 games, 13 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not.
Kristiansund BK's trading profile (27 games, 13 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 37% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Ham-Kam 1.11 PPG, Kristiansund BK 1.22 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Ham-Kam win broke the near-deadlock. Ham-Kam (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.15 average — tighter than their form line. Kristiansund BK (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.92 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.