Ham-Kam 0-2 Brann – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Ham-Kam at 47%, yet in-form Brann provide a compelling counter-argument — this Ham-Kam vs Brann fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Ham-Kam and Brann meet at Briskeby Arena in Eliteserien, Regular Season - 17. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 6 August 2023 at 16:00 UTC.
Current Form
Ham-Kam's overall Eliteserien record this term: 3W 1D 6L from 10 games (1.00 PPG). Last five: L W W W L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 2.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.10 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Ham-Kam, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Ham-Kam have posted 4W 2D 4L at Briskeby Arena — 1.40 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.
Brann (all games): 5W 1D 4L across 10 Eliteserien outings this term — 1.60 points per game. Last five: W L W L L. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.60. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Brann, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Brann have gone 2W 1D 5L from 8 away fixtures this term (0.88 PPG). Away from home they average 1.25 goals scored and 1.88 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 62% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.88 is notably below their overall 1.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
On a straight form reading, Brann are the stronger side — 0.60 PPG clear of the hosts (1.60 vs 1.00). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 1 meetings: Ham-Kam 0W, Brann 1W, 0D.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.0 goals per game across 1 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 2 Jul 2023, ended 1–2 with Brann winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Ham-Kam goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (17 games, 8 at home): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 47%; they fail to score in 35% of games.
Brann goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (17 games, 8 at away): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in away games; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 47%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Ham-Kam 53% versus Brann 59%; no strong lean in either direction. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Ham-Kam 76% | Brann 65%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Ham-Kam 1.62 xG and Brann 1.21 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ham-Kam attack 0.854 / defence 1.033 | Brann attack 0.882 / defence 1.128. League average goals — home 1.687 / away 1.331. Data: 46 Ham-Kam games / 17 Brann games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Ham-Kam 47% | Draw 24% | Brann 29%. Fair-value odds: Ham-Kam 2.13 | Draw 4.17 | Brann 3.45. Ham-Kam hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.84. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.84 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Ham-Kam are the pick at 47% — moderate model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Brann (1.60 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 24% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Ham-Kam if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.84 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 54% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 56% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Ham-Kam 50% | Brann 62% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Ham-Kam vs Brann | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 17 | Venue: Briskeby Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 6 Aug 2023, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Ham-Kam 47% | Draw 24% | Brann 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% | BTTS 56% | xG Ham-Kam 1.62 / Brann 1.21 • Poisson strength factors: Ham-Kam attack 0.854 / def 1.033 | Brann attack 0.882 / def 1.128 | league avg home 1.687 / away 1.331 • Poisson stance: Ham-Kam (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.62
Ham-Kam xG
Expected Goals
1.21
Brann xG
56%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Ham-Kam vs Brann kick off?
Ham-Kam vs Brann kicked off at 16:00 on Sunday 6 August 2023 at Briskeby Arena.
What was the final score in Ham-Kam vs Brann?
Ham-Kam 0 - 2 Brann.
Where is Ham-Kam vs Brann being played?
The match is being played at Briskeby Arena.
What competition is Ham-Kam vs Brann part of?
Ham-Kam vs Brann is a Regular Season - 17 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Ham-Kam vs Brann?
Our statistical model gives Ham-Kam a 47% chance of winning, Brann a 29% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Ham-Kam the favourite.
Will both teams score in Ham-Kam vs Brann?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Ham-Kam and Brann will score (BTTS).
Will Ham-Kam vs Brann have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%.
What is the head-to-head record between Ham-Kam and Brann?
Record (1 meetings): Ham-Kam 0W | Draws 0 | Brann 1W.
What form are Ham-Kam and Brann in?
Ham-Kam (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 2.10 | L5 L-W-W-W-L. Brann (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-L-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Ham-Kam's attack at 0.85x the league average against Brann's defence at 1.13x — combine the two and it projects 1.62 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Brann's attack (0.88x) against Ham-Kam's defence (1.03x) — and the away total comes out at 1.21.
These ratings are built from 46/17 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.4%), 1-0 (8.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Ham-Kam Win
47%
2.13
24%
4.08
29%
3.50
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.5%
Home win
2 – 1
9.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.62
Ham-Kam xG
Total xG
2.84
1.21
Brann xG
2.13
47%
Home win
4.08
24%
Draw
3.50
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.77
44%
BTTS No
2.30
Clean Sheet
30%
3.36
20%
5.08
Win to Nil
14%
7.16
6%
17.79
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.9 | 7.1 | 4.3 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.5 | 11.5 | 7.0 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.7 | 9.4 | 5.7 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.2 | 5.1 | 3.1 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.7 | 2.1 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Ham-Kam vs Brann?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.0%.
How many goals are Ham-Kam and Brann expected to score?
The model projects 1.62 expected goals for Ham-Kam and 1.21 for Brann, a combined total of 2.84.
How confident is the prediction model for Ham-Kam vs Brann?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 17 outings, Ham-Kam have picked up 0.94 PPG on a 5W 1D 11L record — L-W-W-W-L across the most recent five. The sample for Ham-Kam is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Brann's form line: 8W 3D 6L from 17 games, 1.59 PPG, last five W-L-W-L-L. The sample for Brann is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Brann are the form team by 0.65 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Ham-Kam.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Ham-Kam have posted 1.62 PPG from 8 outings (4W 1D 3L). That's noticeably better than their 0.94 PPG overall — Ham-Kam are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Brann have gone 2W 1D 5L from 8 away games — 0.88 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.59 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Brann's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Ham-Kam come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Ham-Kam are averaging 1.24 goals scored and 2.35 conceded per game recently; Brann are on 1.65 scored and 1.35 conceded.
Last 17 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Ham-Kam
Blended
Brann
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Ham-Kam and Brann in coming into this match?
Ham-Kam have gone 5W 1D 11L in their last 17 games (0.94 PPG), while Brann have gone 8W 3D 6L in their last 17 (1.59 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Ham-Kam at home or Brann away?
Ham-Kam's home record (1.62 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Ham-Kam at home: 1.62 PPG; Brann away: 0.88 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 7 times since July 2023 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. They last met on 6 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Brann have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Brann won 1-5 on 6 Apr 2026, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Ham-Kam have gone 0W 1D 3L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Brann — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 7 Meetings
0
Ham-Kam
1
Draws
6
Brann
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Ham-Kam and Brann?
From 7 meetings on record, Ham-Kam have won 0, Brann have won 6, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Ham-Kam and Brann last play each other?
They last met on 6 April 2026, when Ham-Kam 1-5 Brann.
Who has won more matches between Ham-Kam and Brann?
Brann have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 7 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Ham-Kam see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Brann are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Ham-Kam 38%, Brann 62% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Ham-Kam) and 62% (Brann). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 25% and 50% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Ham-Kam keep a clean sheet in 38% of their matches; Ham-Kam have failed to score in 38% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Ham-Kam home games / Brann away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Ham-Kam play Brann?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 38% of Ham-Kam's recent matches and 62% of Brann's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Ham-Kam vs Brann usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 50% of Ham-Kam's matches and 62% of Brann's.
Do Ham-Kam and Brann tend to score early?
Ham-Kam have had a goal before half-time in 50% of their recent matches, Brann in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Brann cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Ham-Kam.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Brann beat Ham-Kam 0-2 at Briskeby Arena, Regular Season - 17, in the Eliteserien. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Ham-Kam 1.62 xG and Brann 1.21 xG, a combined 2.84. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Ham-Kam fell 1.6 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ham-Kam attack 0.85 / defence 1.03 against Brann attack 0.88 / defence 1.13, drawn from 46/17 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Ham-Kam 47% | Draw 24% | Brann 29%, with Ham-Kam to win its most likely call at 47%. The actual Brann win had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 71% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Ham-Kam 76%, Brann 65%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Ham-Kam's trading profile (17 games, 8 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 35% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Brann's trading profile (17 games, 8 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Brann arrived the stronger side — 1.59 PPG against 0.94. Form held, and they took the win. Ham-Kam (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.25 scoring average — below par going forward. Brann (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.88 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.