Ham-Kam vs Bodo/Glimt – Pre-Match Analysis

Poisson model favours Bodo/Glimt (57%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Ham-Kam face Bodo/Glimt.

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Pre-Match Analysis

Ham-Kam and Bodo/Glimt meet at Briskeby Arena in Eliteserien, Regular Season - 24. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 18 October 2026 at 15:00 UTC.

Form

Ham-Kam (all games): 2W 4D 4L across 10 Eliteserien fixtures this term — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L W D L D. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Ham-Kam, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Ham-Kam's home record at Briskeby Arena: 6W 2D 2L from 10 Eliteserien appearances (2.00 PPG). They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.00 — Ham-Kam are significantly better at Briskeby Arena than their overall form suggests.

Bodo/Glimt have collected 2.80 PPG across 10 Eliteserien outings this season: 9W 1D 0L. Last five: W W W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.80 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Bodo/Glimt, so this record blends games from this season and last.

On the road, Bodo/Glimt have gone 7W 2D 1L from 10 away fixtures this term (2.30 PPG). They are averaging 2.10 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Their away PPG of 2.30 is notably below their overall 2.80 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.

The travelling side arrive in better shape. Bodo/Glimt are 1.80 PPG clear of Ham-Kam in recent Eliteserien fixtures (2.80 vs 1.00). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.

H2H Analysis

The head-to-head ledger leans to Bodo/Glimt, who have claimed 6 wins from 9 meetings compared to 1 for the hosts, with 2 draws.

Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.4 goals per game across 9 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 22 Jul 2026, ended 0–3 with Bodo/Glimt winning.

The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Bodo/Glimt have won 6 of 9 previous encounters, and at 3.4 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.

Trading

Ham-Kam half-time and goal-timing data (48 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%.

Bodo/Glimt half-time and goal-timing data (48 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 92% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 75% of those occasions; they lead at the break 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 46%; they keep a clean sheet 48% of the time.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Ham-Kam 58% versus Bodo/Glimt 48%; no strong lean in either direction. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Ham-Kam 67% | Bodo/Glimt 73%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Ham-Kam 1.22 xG and Bodo/Glimt 2.08 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ham-Kam attack 0.938 / defence 1.150 | Bodo/Glimt attack 1.274 / defence 0.761. League average goals — home 1.712 / away 1.422. Bodo/Glimt's defence strength of 0.761 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Bodo/Glimt have an above-average attack strength of 1.274 — the away xG of 2.08 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 48 Ham-Kam games / 48 Bodo/Glimt games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Ham-Kam 22% | Draw 21% | Bodo/Glimt 57%. Fair-value odds: Ham-Kam 4.55 | Draw 4.76 | Bodo/Glimt 1.75. The model has a clear lean to Bodo/Glimt (57%) — a 35pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 64% | BTTS probability 62% | Total xG 3.31. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 64% — the 3.31 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 62% reflects that both xG figures (1.22 / 2.08) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.

Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Bodo/Glimt at 57% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 21% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.

Poisson projects 3.31 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 64% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 3.4 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.4 goals per meeting.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 62% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Ham-Kam 60% | Bodo/Glimt 50% BTTS from recent games.

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