Bryne 0-3 Sarpsborg 08 FF – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Bryne at 43%, yet other data sources diverge — this Bryne vs Sarpsborg 08 FF fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Eliteserien encounter, Regular Season - 29 sees Sarpsborg 08 FF travel to Bryne Stadion to take on Bryne. The game is scheduled for Sunday 23 November 2025, 13:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Bryne stand at 2W 3D 5L from 10 Eliteserien matches — 0.90 PPG. Last five: L D L W L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 2.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.20 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Bryne at Bryne Stadion this season: 4W 4D 2L from 10 home games — 1.60 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.60 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.90 — Bryne are significantly better at Bryne Stadion than their overall form suggests.
Across all Eliteserien games this season, Sarpsborg 08 FF have recorded 4W 1D 5L from 10 outings — 1.30 PPG. Last five: W L W L L. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 2.20. Conceding 2.20 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
When travelling in Eliteserien this season, Sarpsborg 08 FF have posted 3W 2D 5L from 10 away outings — 1.10 PPG. Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Bryne at 0.90 PPG versus Sarpsborg 08 FF's 1.30. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Bryne register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Sarpsborg 08 FF in 70% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, Bryne have won 0, Sarpsborg 08 FF 0, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 22 Jun 2025, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Bryne in-play tendencies (28 games, 14 at home): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 39%; they fail to score in 32% of games.
Sarpsborg 08 FF in-play tendencies (28 games, 14 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 54%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Bryne 57% and Sarpsborg 08 FF 68% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Bryne 54% | Sarpsborg 08 FF 68%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Bryne 1.74 xG and Sarpsborg 08 FF 1.51 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bryne attack 0.828 / defence 1.081 | Sarpsborg 08 FF attack 1.017 / defence 1.182. League average goals — home 1.781 / away 1.370. Data: 28 Bryne games / 58 Sarpsborg 08 FF games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Bryne 43% | Draw 24% | Sarpsborg 08 FF 33%. Fair-value odds: Bryne 2.33 | Draw 4.17 | Sarpsborg 08 FF 3.03. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 24% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 63% | BTTS probability 65% | Total xG 3.25. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 63% — the 3.25 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 65% reflects that both xG figures (1.74 / 1.51) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Bryne are the pick at 43% — marginal model lean. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Bryne offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.25 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 63% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 65% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Bryne 60% | Sarpsborg 08 FF 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Bryne vs Sarpsborg 08 FF | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 29 | Venue: Bryne Stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 23 Nov 2025, 13:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Bryne 43% | Draw 24% | Sarpsborg 08 FF 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 63% | BTTS 65% | xG Bryne 1.74 / Sarpsborg 08 FF 1.51 • Poisson strength factors: Bryne attack 0.828 / def 1.081 | Sarpsborg 08 FF attack 1.017 / def 1.182 | league avg home 1.781 / away 1.370 • Poisson stance: Bryne (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.74
Bryne xG
Expected Goals
1.51
Sarpsborg 08 FF xG
65%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
63%
Over 2.5
41%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Bryne vs Sarpsborg 08 FF kick off?
Bryne vs Sarpsborg 08 FF kicked off at 13:30 on Sunday 23 November 2025 at Bryne Stadion.
What was the final score in Bryne vs Sarpsborg 08 FF?
Bryne 0 - 3 Sarpsborg 08 FF.
Where is Bryne vs Sarpsborg 08 FF being played?
The match is being played at Bryne Stadion.
What competition is Bryne vs Sarpsborg 08 FF part of?
Bryne vs Sarpsborg 08 FF is a Regular Season - 29 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Bryne vs Sarpsborg 08 FF?
Our statistical model gives Bryne a 43% chance of winning, Sarpsborg 08 FF a 33% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Bryne the favourite.
Will both teams score in Bryne vs Sarpsborg 08 FF?
Our model estimates a 65% probability that both Bryne and Sarpsborg 08 FF will score (BTTS).
Will Bryne vs Sarpsborg 08 FF have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 63%.
What is the head-to-head record between Bryne and Sarpsborg 08 FF?
Record (1 meetings): Bryne 0W | Draws 1 | Sarpsborg 08 FF 0W.
What form are Bryne and Sarpsborg 08 FF in?
Bryne (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 2.20 | L5 L-D-L-W-L. Sarpsborg 08 FF (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 2.20 | L5 W-L-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Bryne's attack rating (0.83) and Sarpsborg 08 FF's defence rating (1.18), the model arrives at 1.74 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Sarpsborg 08 FF's attack versus Bryne's defence, projects 1.51 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 28/58 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.5%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.9%), 1-2 (7.7%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Bryne Win
43%
2.32
24%
4.21
33%
3.02
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.2%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.9%
Home win
1 – 2
7.7%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.74
Bryne xG
Total xG
3.25
1.51
Sarpsborg 08 FF xG
2.32
43%
Home win
4.21
24%
Draw
3.02
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
84%
Over 1.5
1.19
16%
Under 1.5
6.25
63%
Over 2.5
1.59
37%
Under 2.5
2.70
41%
Over 3.5
2.44
59%
Under 3.5
1.69
23%
Over 4.5
4.35
77%
Under 4.5
1.30
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
65%
BTTS Yes
1.55
35%
BTTS No
2.82
Clean Sheet
22%
4.51
17%
5.71
Win to Nil
10%
10.47
6%
17.25
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.9 | 5.8 | 4.4 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 6.8 | 10.2 | 7.7 | 3.9 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.9 | 8.9 | 6.7 | 3.4 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 3.4 | 5.2 | 3.9 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.5 | 2.2 | 1.7 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Bryne vs Sarpsborg 08 FF?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.5%.
How many goals are Bryne and Sarpsborg 08 FF expected to score?
The model projects 1.74 expected goals for Bryne and 1.51 for Sarpsborg 08 FF, a combined total of 3.25.
How confident is the prediction model for Bryne vs Sarpsborg 08 FF?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Bryne's recent record stands at 7W 7D 14L from 28 games, a 1.00 PPG return, with L-D-L-W-L in the last five.
Sarpsborg 08 FF, meanwhile, have gone 9W 8D 11L across 28 games — 1.25 PPG, with W-L-W-L-L in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Bryne on 1.00 PPG, Sarpsborg 08 FF on 1.25. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Bryne have managed 6W 4D 4L from 14 games — 1.57 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.00 PPG overall — Bryne are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Sarpsborg 08 FF's away record stands at 5W 4D 5L across 14 trips, a 1.36 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
Bryne are averaging 1.18 goals scored and 1.86 conceded per game recently; Sarpsborg 08 FF are on 1.57 scored and 1.79 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Sarpsborg 08 FF in 68%.
Last 28 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Bryne
Current Season
Sarpsborg 08 FF
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Bryne and Sarpsborg 08 FF in coming into this match?
Bryne have gone 7W 7D 14L in their last 28 games (1.00 PPG), while Sarpsborg 08 FF have gone 9W 8D 11L in their last 28 (1.25 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Bryne at home or Sarpsborg 08 FF away?
Bryne's home record (1.57 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Bryne at home: 1.57 PPG; Sarpsborg 08 FF away: 1.36 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
2 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to June 2025. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. They last met on 23 November 2025, roughly 9 months ago.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Bryne
1
Draws
1
Sarpsborg 08 FF
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Bryne and Sarpsborg 08 FF?
From 2 meetings on record, Bryne have won 0, Sarpsborg 08 FF have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Bryne and Sarpsborg 08 FF last play each other?
They last met on 23 November 2025, when Bryne 0-3 Sarpsborg 08 FF.
Who has won more matches between Bryne and Sarpsborg 08 FF?
Sarpsborg 08 FF have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Bryne are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 21% of those situations.
Sarpsborg 08 FF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Bryne 57%, Sarpsborg 08 FF 64% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 57% for Bryne and 71% for Sarpsborg 08 FF. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 43% and 57% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Bryne have failed to score in 29% of games; Sarpsborg 08 FF in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Bryne home games / Sarpsborg 08 FF away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Bryne play Sarpsborg 08 FF?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 57% of Bryne's games and 64% of Sarpsborg 08 FF's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Bryne vs Sarpsborg 08 FF usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 57% of Bryne's matches and 71% of Sarpsborg 08 FF's.
Do Bryne and Sarpsborg 08 FF tend to score early?
Bryne have had a goal before half-time in 79% of their recent matches, Sarpsborg 08 FF in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Sarpsborg 08 FF run riot with a 0-3 hammering of Bryne.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sarpsborg 08 FF beat Bryne 0-3 at Bryne Stadion, Regular Season - 29, in the Eliteserien. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Bryne 1.74 xG and Sarpsborg 08 FF 1.51 xG, a combined 3.25. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. Bryne fell 1.7 short of their projected output. Sarpsborg 08 FF outscored their 1.51 projection by 1.5. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bryne attack 0.83 / defence 1.08 against Sarpsborg 08 FF attack 1.02 / defence 1.18, drawn from 28/58 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Bryne 43% | Draw 24% | Sarpsborg 08 FF 33%, with Bryne to win its most likely call at 43%. The actual Sarpsborg 08 FF win had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 63%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 84% and landed. Over 3.5 was 41% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 65% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 61% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bryne 54%, Sarpsborg 08 FF 68%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Bryne's trading profile (28 games, 14 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 32% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Sarpsborg 08 FF's trading profile (28 games, 14 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 68% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Bryne 1.00 PPG, Sarpsborg 08 FF 1.25 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Sarpsborg 08 FF win broke the near-deadlock. Bryne (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.50 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.50 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Sarpsborg 08 FF (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.50 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.71 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.