Brann 0-2 Viking – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Brann at 47%, yet in-form Viking provide a compelling counter-argument — this Brann vs Viking fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Brann and Viking meet at Brann Stadion in Eliteserien, Regular Season - 16. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 30 July 2023 at 16:00 UTC.
Form
Brann (all games): 5W 1D 4L across 10 Eliteserien fixtures this term — 1.60 PPG. Last five: L W L W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.60 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Brann, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Brann at Brann Stadion this season: 6W 2D 0L from 8 home games — 2.50 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.25 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 3 home clean sheets from 8 games (38%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 62% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.50 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.60 — Brann are significantly better at Brann Stadion than their overall form suggests.
Viking have collected 2.40 PPG across 10 Eliteserien outings this season: 8W 0D 2L. Last five: W W W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.30 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Viking, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Viking's form when playing away from home: 4W 2D 4L across 10 road games this term (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.40 is notably below their overall 2.40 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Viking are 0.80 PPG clear of Brann in recent Eliteserien fixtures (2.40 vs 1.60). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Brann have seen both teams score in 62% of their games, Viking in 80%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head ledger leans to Viking, who have claimed 4 wins from 4 meetings compared to 0 for the hosts, with 0 draws.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.0 goals per game across 4 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 24 Jun 2023, ended 1–3 with Viking winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Viking have won 4 of 4 previous encounters, and at 3.0 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
Trading Data
Brann goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (16 games, 7 at home): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in home games; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 50%.
Viking goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (16 games, 7 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 44%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Brann 62% and Viking 75% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Brann 69% | Viking 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Brann 1.65 xG and Viking 1.24 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Brann attack 1.035 / defence 0.898 | Viking attack 1.058 / defence 0.928. League average goals — home 1.716 / away 1.301. Data: 16 Brann games / 45 Viking games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Brann 47% | Draw 24% | Viking 29%. Fair-value odds: Brann 2.13 | Draw 4.17 | Viking 3.45. Brann hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 2.88. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.88 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Brann are the pick at 47% — moderate model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Viking (2.40 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 24% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Brann if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.88 combined xG gives a 55% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 3.3 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.0 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 57%. Form rates corroborate: Brann 62% | Viking 80% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Brann vs Viking | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 16 | Venue: Brann Stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 30 Jul 2023, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Brann 47% | Draw 24% | Viking 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% | BTTS 57% | xG Brann 1.65 / Viking 1.24 • Poisson strength factors: Brann attack 1.035 / def 0.898 | Viking attack 1.058 / def 0.928 | league avg home 1.716 / away 1.301 • Poisson stance: Brann (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.65
Brann xG
Expected Goals
1.24
Viking xG
57%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Brann vs Viking kick off?
Brann vs Viking kicked off at 16:00 on Sunday 30 July 2023 at Brann Stadion.
What was the final score in Brann vs Viking?
Brann 0 - 2 Viking.
Where is Brann vs Viking being played?
The match is being played at Brann Stadion.
What competition is Brann vs Viking part of?
Brann vs Viking is a Regular Season - 16 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Brann vs Viking?
Our statistical model gives Brann a 47% chance of winning, Viking a 29% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Brann the favourite.
Will both teams score in Brann vs Viking?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Brann and Viking will score (BTTS).
Will Brann vs Viking have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%.
What is the head-to-head record between Brann and Viking?
Record (4 meetings): Brann 0W | Draws 0 | Viking 4W.
What form are Brann and Viking in?
Brann (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-W-L-W-L. Viking (all comps): 8W-0D-2L in 10 | 2.40 PPG | GF 2.30 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-W-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Brann's attack at 1.03x the league average against Viking's defence at 0.93x — combine the two and it projects 1.65 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Viking's attack (1.06x) against Brann's defence (0.90x) — and the away total comes out at 1.24.
These ratings are built from 16/45 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.4%), 1-0 (7.7%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Brann Win
47%
2.13
24%
4.12
29%
3.48
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.4%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.4%
Home win
1 – 0
9.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.65
Brann xG
Total xG
2.88
1.24
Viking xG
2.13
47%
Home win
4.12
24%
Draw
3.48
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.75
43%
BTTS No
2.34
Clean Sheet
29%
3.44
19%
5.20
Win to Nil
14%
7.32
6%
18.11
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.6 | 6.9 | 4.3 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.2 | 11.4 | 7.0 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.6 | 9.4 | 5.8 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.2 | 5.2 | 3.2 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.7 | 2.1 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Brann vs Viking?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.9%.
How many goals are Brann and Viking expected to score?
The model projects 1.65 expected goals for Brann and 1.24 for Viking, a combined total of 2.88.
How confident is the prediction model for Brann vs Viking?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Brann's recent record stands at 8W 3D 5L from 16 games, a 1.69 PPG return, with L-W-L-W-L in the last five. The sample for Brann is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Viking, meanwhile, have gone 10W 3D 3L across 16 games — 2.06 PPG, with W-W-W-W-W in their last five. The sample for Viking is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.69 PPG for Brann against 2.06 for Viking. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Brann have managed 5W 2D 0L from 7 games — 2.43 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.69 PPG overall — Brann are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Viking's away record stands at 4W 1D 2L across 7 trips, a 1.86 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Brann come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Brann are averaging 1.75 goals scored and 1.31 conceded per game recently; Viking are on 2.19 scored and 1.44 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Brann have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games; Viking in 75%.
Last 16 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Brann
Blended
Viking
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Brann and Viking in coming into this match?
Brann have gone 8W 3D 5L in their last 16 games (1.69 PPG), while Viking have gone 10W 3D 3L in their last 16 (2.06 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Brann at home or Viking away?
Brann's home record (2.43 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Brann at home: 2.43 PPG; Viking away: 1.86 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since December 2020 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. They last met on 18 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Viking have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Viking won 3-0 on 5 Oct 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Brann have gone 1W 1D 2L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Viking — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
1
Brann
2
Draws
7
Viking
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Brann and Viking?
From 10 meetings on record, Brann have won 1, Viking have won 7, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Brann and Viking last play each other?
They last met on 18 April 2026, when Viking 3-2 Brann.
Who has won more matches between Brann and Viking?
Viking have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Brann are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 57% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Viking are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 71% for Brann, 71% for Viking — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 71% for Brann and 57% for Viking. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 57% and 29% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Brann home games / Viking away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Brann play Viking?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 71% of Brann's games and 71% of Viking's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Brann vs Viking usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 71% of Brann's matches and 57% of Viking's.
Do Brann and Viking tend to score early?
Brann have had a goal before half-time in 86% of their recent matches, Viking in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Viking cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Brann.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Viking beat Brann 0-2 at Brann Stadion, Regular Season - 16, in the Eliteserien. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Brann 1.65 xG and Viking 1.24 xG, a combined 2.88. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Brann fell 1.6 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Brann attack 1.03 / defence 0.90 against Viking attack 1.06 / defence 0.93, drawn from 16/45 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Brann 47% | Draw 24% | Viking 29%, with Brann to win its most likely call at 47%. The actual Viking win had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Brann 69%, Viking 56%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 69%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Brann's trading profile (16 games, 7 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not.
Viking's trading profile (16 games, 7 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 75% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Brann 1.69 PPG, Viking 2.06 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Viking win broke the near-deadlock. Brann (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.14 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 0.86 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Viking (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.43 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.