Brann 3-0 Stromsgodset – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Stromsgodset at 37%, yet other data sources diverge — this Brann vs Stromsgodset fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Brann host Stromsgodset at Brann Stadion in Eliteserien, Regular Season - 6. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 30 May 2021 at 17:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Brann — All Games: 3W 4D 3L from 10 Eliteserien outings this season, averaging 1.30 points per game. Last five: W L D D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.60 conceded. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
Brann's home record at Brann Stadion: 2W 3D 5L from 10 Eliteserien appearances (0.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 90% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across all Eliteserien games this season, Stromsgodset have recorded 2W 2D 6L from 10 outings — 0.80 PPG. Last five: L D W W L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 2.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Stromsgodset's away record: 3W 3D 4L from 10 road trips in Eliteserien this season (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
On current form, Brann have the edge — a 0.50 PPG advantage (1.30 vs 0.80) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
Both teams score in over 80% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 2 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Brann, 1 for Stromsgodset and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 2 meetings have averaged 3.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 29 Aug 2020, ended 1–1 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Brann in-play tendencies (30 games, 15 at home): they score before half-time in 53% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 83% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 87% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games).
Stromsgodset in-play tendencies (30 games, 15 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 71% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 73% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 47%; they fail to score in 33% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Brann 73% and Stromsgodset 63% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Brann 57% | Stromsgodset 67%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Brann 1.24 xG and Stromsgodset 1.33 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Brann attack 0.853 / defence 1.163 | Stromsgodset attack 0.881 / defence 0.987. League average goals — home 1.469 / away 1.298. Data: 36 Brann games / 33 Stromsgodset games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Brann 33% | Draw 30% | Stromsgodset 37%. Fair-value odds: Brann 3.03 | Draw 3.33 | Stromsgodset 2.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.57. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.57 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Stromsgodset as the most likely outcome at 37% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Brann (1.30 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Stromsgodset offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.57 combined xG gives a 47% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though form averaging only 3.0 goals per game points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 54% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Brann 90% | Stromsgodset 80% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Brann vs Stromsgodset | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 6 | Venue: Brann Stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 30 May 2021, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Brann 33% | Draw 30% | Stromsgodset 37% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% | BTTS 54% | xG Brann 1.24 / Stromsgodset 1.33 • Poisson strength factors: Brann attack 0.853 / def 1.163 | Stromsgodset attack 0.881 / def 0.987 | league avg home 1.469 / away 1.298 • Poisson stance: Stromsgodset (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.24
Brann xG
Expected Goals
1.33
Stromsgodset xG
54%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Brann vs Stromsgodset kick off?
Brann vs Stromsgodset kicked off at 17:00 on Sunday 30 May 2021 at Brann Stadion.
What was the final score in Brann vs Stromsgodset?
Brann 3 - 0 Stromsgodset.
Where is Brann vs Stromsgodset being played?
The match is being played at Brann Stadion.
What competition is Brann vs Stromsgodset part of?
Brann vs Stromsgodset is a Regular Season - 6 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Brann vs Stromsgodset?
Our statistical model gives Brann a 33% chance of winning, Stromsgodset a 37% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Stromsgodset the favourite.
Will both teams score in Brann vs Stromsgodset?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Brann and Stromsgodset will score (BTTS).
Will Brann vs Stromsgodset have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%.
What is the head-to-head record between Brann and Stromsgodset?
Record (2 meetings): Brann 0W | Draws 1 | Stromsgodset 1W.
What form are Brann and Stromsgodset in?
Brann (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-L-D-D-W. Stromsgodset (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-D-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Brann's attacking strength (0.85x league average) is weighed against Stromsgodset's defensive record (0.99x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.24. The same calculation in reverse, Stromsgodset's attack versus Brann's defence, projects 1.33 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 36/33 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.3%. Close behind: 0-0 (9.3%), 0-1 (8.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Stromsgodset Win
33%
3.07
30%
3.29
37%
2.70
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.2%
Away win
1 – 0
9.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.24
Brann xG
Total xG
2.57
1.33
Stromsgodset xG
3.07
33%
Home win
3.29
30%
Draw
2.70
37%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.85
46%
BTTS No
2.18
Clean Sheet
26%
3.78
29%
3.44
Win to Nil
9%
11.60
11%
9.29
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.7 | 10.2 | 6.8 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 9.5 | 12.6 | 8.4 | 3.7 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 5.9 | 7.8 | 5.2 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.4 | 3.2 | 2.1 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 1.0 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Brann vs Stromsgodset?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.3%.
How many goals are Brann and Stromsgodset expected to score?
The model projects 1.24 expected goals for Brann and 1.33 for Stromsgodset, a combined total of 2.57.
How confident is the prediction model for Brann vs Stromsgodset?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Brann come into this having played 30 games, going 9W 9D 12L for 1.20 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-D-D-W.
On the other side, Stromsgodset sit at 1.03 PPG from 30 outings (7W 10D 13L), a run that reads L-D-W-W-L across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Brann on 1.20 PPG, Stromsgodset on 1.03. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Brann's home form reads 4W 5D 6L across 15 games on their own ground, a 1.13 PPG return.
Away from home, Stromsgodset have taken 1.07 points per game from 15 outings (4W 4D 7L).
The Goals Picture
Brann are averaging 1.33 goals scored and 1.63 conceded per game recently; Stromsgodset are on 1.37 scored and 1.90 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Brann have seen both teams score in 73% of their recent games; Stromsgodset in 63%.
Last 30 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Brann
Current Season
Stromsgodset
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Brann and Stromsgodset in coming into this match?
Brann have gone 9W 9D 12L in their last 30 games (1.20 PPG), while Stromsgodset have gone 7W 10D 13L in their last 30 (1.03 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Brann at home or Stromsgodset away?
Brann's home record (1.13 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Brann at home: 1.13 PPG; Stromsgodset away: 1.07 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Brann and Stromsgodset runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to July 2020. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. It has been a while since the last meeting — 21 April 2025, some 4 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Brann go into this on the back of 3 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 30 May 2021, when Brann won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Brann's record when hosting Stromsgodset specifically: 3W 2D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Brann
2
Draws
3
Stromsgodset
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Brann and Stromsgodset?
From 10 meetings on record, Brann have won 5, Stromsgodset have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Brann and Stromsgodset last play each other?
They last met on 21 April 2025, when Stromsgodset 1-2 Brann.
Who has won more matches between Brann and Stromsgodset?
Brann have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Brann see a goal before the break in 53% of their matches.
Stromsgodset are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Brann at 87%, Stromsgodset at 67%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 60% for Brann and 73% for Stromsgodset. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 20% and 47% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Stromsgodset in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Brann home games / Stromsgodset away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Brann play Stromsgodset?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 87% of Brann's games and 67% of Stromsgodset's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Brann vs Stromsgodset usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 60% of Brann's matches and 73% of Stromsgodset's.
Do Brann and Stromsgodset tend to score early?
Brann have had a goal before half-time in 53% of their recent matches, Stromsgodset in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Brann run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Stromsgodset.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Brann beat Stromsgodset 3-0 at Brann Stadion, Regular Season - 6, in the Eliteserien. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Brann 1.24 xG and Stromsgodset 1.33 xG, a combined 2.57. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Brann beat their projection by 1.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Stromsgodset landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Brann attack 0.85 / defence 1.16 against Stromsgodset attack 0.88 / defence 0.99, drawn from 36/33 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Brann 33% | Draw 30% | Stromsgodset 37%, with Stromsgodset to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual Brann win had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Brann 57%, Stromsgodset 67%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 68%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Brann's trading profile (30 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 73% of their matches — today it did not.
Stromsgodset's trading profile (30 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Brann 1.20 PPG, Stromsgodset 1.03 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Brann win broke the near-deadlock. Brann (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.40 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.33 average — tighter than their form line. Stromsgodset (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.47 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.87 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.