Brann 2-2 Lillestrom – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Brann at 51%, yet other data sources diverge — this Brann vs Lillestrom fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Brann and Lillestrom meet at Brann Stadion in Eliteserien, Regular Season - 10. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 11 June 2023 at 18:15 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Brann have collected 0.90 PPG across 10 Eliteserien outings this season: 1W 6D 3L. Last five: D L D W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.90 conceded. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Brann haven't played a Eliteserien game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
Brann at Brann Stadion this season: 3W 4D 3L from 10 home games — 1.30 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Lillestrom (all games): 4W 0D 6L across 10 Eliteserien outings this term — 1.20 points per game. Last five: L W L L W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Lillestrom's away record: 5W 0D 5L from 10 road trips in Eliteserien this season (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 0.90 vs 1.20 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Brann lead 1W to 0W over the last 2 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.5 per game across 2 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 11 Sep 2021, ended 3–2 with Brann winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.5 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading
Brann half-time and goal-timing data (31 games, 15 at home): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 80% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 48%.
Lillestrom half-time and goal-timing data (31 games, 15 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 73% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Brann 71% and Lillestrom 52% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Brann 61% | Lillestrom 55%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Brann 1.70 xG and Lillestrom 1.08 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Brann attack 1.143 / defence 0.878 | Lillestrom attack 0.966 / defence 0.852. League average goals — home 1.745 / away 1.274. Data: 10 Brann games / 39 Lillestrom games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Brann 51% | Draw 26% | Lillestrom 23%. Fair-value odds: Brann 1.96 | Draw 3.85 | Lillestrom 4.35. Brann hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.78. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.78 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Brann are the pick at 51% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Brann if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.78 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 53% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 55% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Brann 80% | Lillestrom 50% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Brann vs Lillestrom | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 10 | Venue: Brann Stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 11 Jun 2023, 18:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Brann 51% | Draw 26% | Lillestrom 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% | BTTS 55% | xG Brann 1.70 / Lillestrom 1.08 • Poisson strength factors: Brann attack 1.143 / def 0.878 | Lillestrom attack 0.966 / def 0.852 | league avg home 1.745 / away 1.274 • Poisson stance: Brann (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.70
Brann xG
Expected Goals
1.08
Lillestrom xG
55%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Brann vs Lillestrom kick off?
Brann vs Lillestrom kicked off at 18:15 on Sunday 11 June 2023 at Brann Stadion.
What was the final score in Brann vs Lillestrom?
Brann 2 - 2 Lillestrom.
Where is Brann vs Lillestrom being played?
The match is being played at Brann Stadion.
What competition is Brann vs Lillestrom part of?
Brann vs Lillestrom is a Regular Season - 10 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Brann vs Lillestrom?
Our statistical model gives Brann a 51% chance of winning, Lillestrom a 23% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Brann the favourite.
Will both teams score in Brann vs Lillestrom?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Brann and Lillestrom will score (BTTS).
Will Brann vs Lillestrom have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%.
What is the head-to-head record between Brann and Lillestrom?
Record (2 meetings): Brann 1W | Draws 1 | Lillestrom 0W.
What form are Brann and Lillestrom in?
Brann (all comps): 1W-6D-3L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.90 | L5 D-L-D-W-D. Lillestrom (all comps): 4W-0D-6L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-W-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Brann's attacking strength (1.14x league average) is weighed against Lillestrom's defensive record (0.85x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.70. Flip it around — Lillestrom's attack (0.97x) against Brann's defence (0.88x) — and the away total comes out at 1.08.
These ratings are built from 10/39 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.9%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.7%), 1-0 (9.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Brann Win
51%
1.97
26%
3.79
23%
4.36
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.5%
Home win
2 – 1
9.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.70
Brann xG
Total xG
2.78
1.08
Lillestrom xG
1.97
51%
Home win
3.79
26%
Draw
4.36
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.81
45%
BTTS No
2.23
Clean Sheet
34%
2.95
18%
5.47
Win to Nil
17%
5.82
4%
23.88
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.2 | 6.7 | 3.6 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.5 | 11.4 | 6.2 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.0 | 9.7 | 5.2 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.1 | 5.5 | 3.0 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.2 | 2.3 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Brann vs Lillestrom?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.9%.
How many goals are Brann and Lillestrom expected to score?
The model projects 1.70 expected goals for Brann and 1.08 for Lillestrom, a combined total of 2.78.
How confident is the prediction model for Brann vs Lillestrom?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 31 outings, Brann have picked up 0.87 PPG on a 5W 12D 14L record — D-L-D-W-D across the most recent five. Brann haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
Lillestrom's form line: 17W 5D 9L from 31 games, 1.81 PPG, last five L-W-L-L-W.
Put side by side, Lillestrom are the form team by 0.94 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Brann.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Brann have posted 1.20 PPG from 15 outings (4W 6D 5L).
On the road, Lillestrom have gone 7W 3D 5L from 15 away games — 1.60 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Lillestrom come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Brann are averaging 1.35 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game recently; Lillestrom are on 1.65 scored and 1.10 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Brann have seen both teams score in 71% of their recent games.
Last 31 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Brann
Pre-Season
Lillestrom
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Brann and Lillestrom in coming into this match?
Brann have gone 5W 12D 14L in their last 31 games (0.87 PPG), while Lillestrom have gone 17W 5D 9L in their last 31 (1.81 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Brann at home or Lillestrom away?
Lillestrom's away record (1.60 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Brann at home: 1.20 PPG; Lillestrom away: 1.60 PPG.
Have Brann or Lillestrom been keeping clean sheets recently?
Brann have kept a clean sheet in 6% of their recent games, Lillestrom in 32%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 6 times that we have on record, stretching back to June 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. It has been a while since the last meeting — 9 November 2024, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
Brann have won the last 3 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Brann have gone 1W 2D 0L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Lillestrom — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
4
Brann
2
Draws
0
Lillestrom
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Brann and Lillestrom?
From 6 meetings on record, Brann have won 4, Lillestrom have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Brann and Lillestrom last play each other?
They last met on 9 November 2024, when Brann 2-1 Lillestrom.
Who has won more matches between Brann and Lillestrom?
Brann have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Brann are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Lillestrom are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 80% for Brann, 67% for Lillestrom — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 60% for Brann and 73% for Lillestrom. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 40% and 40% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Brann home games / Lillestrom away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Brann play Lillestrom?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 80% of Brann's games and 67% of Lillestrom's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Brann vs Lillestrom usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 60% of Brann's matches and 73% of Lillestrom's.
Do Brann and Lillestrom tend to score early?
Brann have had a goal before half-time in 60% of their recent matches, Lillestrom in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Brann and Lillestrom share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Brann Stadion, Regular Season - 10, as Brann and Lillestrom drew 2-2 in the Eliteserien. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Brann 1.70 xG and Lillestrom 1.08 xG, a combined 2.78. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Lillestrom outscored their 1.08 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Brann attack 1.14 / defence 0.88 against Lillestrom attack 0.97 / defence 0.85, drawn from 10/39 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Brann 51% | Draw 26% | Lillestrom 23%, with Brann to win its most likely call at 51%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. Over 3.5 was 30% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Brann 61%, Lillestrom 55%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Brann's trading profile (31 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 71% of their matches — today it did.
Lillestrom's trading profile (31 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Lillestrom arrived the stronger side — 1.81 PPG against 0.87. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.