Brann 1-1 Haugesund – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Brann at 44% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Brann vs Haugesund encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Eliteserien encounter, Regular Season - 14 sees Haugesund travel to Brann Stadion to take on Brann. The game is scheduled for Saturday 13 July 2024, 18:15 UTC.
Form Guide
Brann — All Games: 5W 3D 2L from 10 Eliteserien outings this season, averaging 1.80 points per game. Last five: L W W D L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.30 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Brann, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Brann's form when playing at home: 7W 1D 2L across 10 games at Brann Stadion this term (2.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Across all Eliteserien games this season, Haugesund have recorded 3W 1D 6L from 10 outings — 1.00 PPG. Last five: W L W L L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Haugesund, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Haugesund away from home this season: 3W 3D 4L from 10 away games — 1.20 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game.
On current form, Brann have the edge — a 0.80 PPG advantage (1.80 vs 1.00) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 6 previous encounters have yielded 3 wins for Brann, 3 for Haugesund and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 6 previous meetings have averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 11 Nov 2023, ended 2–0 with Brann winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Brann in-play tendencies (42 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; they lead at the break 45% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (home games).
Haugesund in-play tendencies (42 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; BTTS occurs in 45% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Brann 57% versus Haugesund 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Brann 57% | Haugesund 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Brann 1.39 xG and Haugesund 1.05 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Brann attack 0.945 / defence 0.829 | Haugesund attack 0.914 / defence 1.023. League average goals — home 1.436 / away 1.392. Data: 45 Brann games / 42 Haugesund games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Brann 44% | Draw 28% | Haugesund 28%. Fair-value odds: Brann 2.27 | Draw 3.57 | Haugesund 3.57. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.44. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.44 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Brann as the most likely outcome at 44% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Brann offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.44 combined xG gives a 44% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 50% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Brann 50% | Haugesund 50%.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Brann vs Haugesund | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 14 | Venue: Brann Stadion • Kick-off: Saturday 13 Jul 2024, 18:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Brann 44% | Draw 28% | Haugesund 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% | BTTS 50% | xG Brann 1.39 / Haugesund 1.05 • Poisson strength factors: Brann attack 0.945 / def 0.829 | Haugesund attack 0.914 / def 1.023 | league avg home 1.436 / away 1.392 • Poisson stance: Brann (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.39
Brann xG
Expected Goals
1.05
Haugesund xG
50%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Brann vs Haugesund kick off?
Brann vs Haugesund kicked off at 18:15 on Saturday 13 July 2024 at Brann Stadion.
What was the final score in Brann vs Haugesund?
Brann 1 - 1 Haugesund.
Where is Brann vs Haugesund being played?
The match is being played at Brann Stadion.
What competition is Brann vs Haugesund part of?
Brann vs Haugesund is a Regular Season - 14 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Brann vs Haugesund?
Our statistical model gives Brann a 44% chance of winning, Haugesund a 28% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Brann the favourite.
Will both teams score in Brann vs Haugesund?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Brann and Haugesund will score (BTTS).
Will Brann vs Haugesund have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%.
What is the head-to-head record between Brann and Haugesund?
Record (6 meetings): Brann 3W | Draws 0 | Haugesund 3W.
What form are Brann and Haugesund in?
Brann (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-W-W-D-L. Haugesund (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-L-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Brann's attack rating (0.94) and Haugesund's defence rating (1.02), the model arrives at 1.39 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Haugesund's attack versus Brann's defence, projects 1.05 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 45/42 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.4%. Close behind: 1-0 (10.4%), 0-0 (10.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Brann Win
44%
2.28
28%
3.55
28%
3.58
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.1%
Home win
0 – 1
9.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.39
Brann xG
Total xG
2.44
1.05
Haugesund xG
2.28
44%
Home win
3.55
28%
Draw
3.58
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
2.02
50%
BTTS No
1.98
Clean Sheet
35%
2.87
25%
4.01
Win to Nil
15%
6.53
7%
14.36
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.7 | 9.2 | 4.8 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.1 | 12.7 | 6.7 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.4 | 8.8 | 4.7 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.9 | 4.1 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Brann vs Haugesund?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.4%.
How many goals are Brann and Haugesund expected to score?
The model projects 1.39 expected goals for Brann and 1.05 for Haugesund, a combined total of 2.44.
How confident is the prediction model for Brann vs Haugesund?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Brann come into this having played 42 games, going 25W 8D 9L for 1.98 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-W-D-L. The sample for Brann is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Haugesund sit at 1.10 PPG from 42 outings (13W 7D 22L), a run that reads W-L-W-L-L across their last five. The sample for Haugesund is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Brann carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.88 PPG clear of Haugesund — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Brann's home form reads 15W 2D 3L across 20 games on their own ground, a 2.35 PPG return.
Away from home, Haugesund have taken 0.85 points per game from 20 outings (4W 5D 11L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Brann come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Brann are averaging 1.71 goals scored and 1.19 conceded per game recently; Haugesund are on 1.07 scored and 1.36 conceded.
Last 42 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Brann
Blended
Haugesund
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Brann and Haugesund in coming into this match?
Brann have gone 25W 8D 9L in their last 42 games (1.98 PPG), while Haugesund have gone 13W 7D 22L in their last 42 (1.10 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Brann at home or Haugesund away?
Brann's home record (2.35 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Brann at home: 2.35 PPG; Haugesund away: 0.85 PPG.
Have Brann or Haugesund been keeping clean sheets recently?
Brann have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Haugesund in 21%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Brann and Haugesund runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to June 2020. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. They last met on 18 October 2025, roughly 9 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Brann have won the last 3 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 10 Apr 2023, when Brann won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Brann's record when hosting Haugesund specifically: 2W 1D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
6
Brann
1
Draws
3
Haugesund
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Brann and Haugesund?
From 10 meetings on record, Brann have won 6, Haugesund have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Brann and Haugesund last play each other?
They last met on 18 October 2025, when Brann 4-1 Haugesund.
Who has won more matches between Brann and Haugesund?
Brann have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Brann are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 55% of the time.
Haugesund are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Brann 60%, Haugesund 45% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 65% (Brann) and 50% (Haugesund). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 35% and 5% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Haugesund in 45%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Brann home games / Haugesund away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Brann play Haugesund?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 60% of Brann's recent matches and 45% of Haugesund's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Brann vs Haugesund usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 65% of Brann's matches and 50% of Haugesund's.
Do Brann and Haugesund tend to score early?
Brann have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Haugesund in 70% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Brann and Haugesund share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Brann and Haugesund finished level at 1-1 at Brann Stadion, Regular Season - 14, in the Eliteserien. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Brann 1.39 xG and Haugesund 1.05 xG, a combined 2.44. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Brann attack 0.94 / defence 0.83 against Haugesund attack 0.91 / defence 1.02, drawn from 45/42 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Brann 44% | Draw 28% | Haugesund 28%, with Brann to win its most likely call at 44%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Brann 57%, Haugesund 52%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Brann's trading profile (42 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Haugesund's trading profile (42 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Brann arrived the stronger side — 1.98 PPG against 1.10. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Brann (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.00 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.