Brann 4-1 Bodo/Glimt – Result & Analysis

Poisson rates Bodo/Glimt at 42% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Brann vs Bodo/Glimt encounter.

✍️ Match Preview

Pre-Match Analysis

Brann and Bodo/Glimt meet at Brann Stadion in Eliteserien (matchday 23). This fixture gets under way on Sunday 22 September 2024 at 14:30 UK time.

Current Form

Brann's record over their last 10 games: 4W 4D 2L (1.60 PPG). Last five: W W L D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.50 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.

Brann's form when playing at home: 6W 2D 2L across their last 10 home games (2.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home.

Bodo/Glimt (all games): 7W 2D 1L across their last 10 — 2.30 points per game. Last five: W D W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.70 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.

When travelling, Bodo/Glimt have posted 6W 2D 2L from their last 10 away outings — 2.00 PPG. They are averaging 1.90 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.

Bodo/Glimt arrive in superior form — a 0.70 PPG advantage (2.30 vs 1.60) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.

H2H Analysis

The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 5 H2H matches in our data, Bodo/Glimt edge it 2 wins to 1, with 2 draws. Neither side has a commanding advantage.

These two sides have produced goals at a healthy rate, averaging 4.6 per game across the 5 H2H matches we hold. That scoring profile supports the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent of those, on 7 Jul 2024, ended Brann 1–5 Bodo/Glimt — a Bodo/Glimt win.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 4.6 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.

Trading & In-Play

Brann — key trading statistics (last 52 games, 26 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 69% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 58% of those occasions; of the 13 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 31%; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%.

Bodo/Glimt — key trading statistics (last 52 games, 26 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 77% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 64% of those occasions; of the 11 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 54%; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 50%.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Brann 58% versus Bodo/Glimt 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Brann 58% | Bodo/Glimt 64%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Brann 1.08 xG and Bodo/Glimt 1.33 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Brann attack 0.918 / defence 0.947 | Bodo/Glimt attack 1.119 / defence 0.764. League average goals — home 1.545 / away 1.253. Bodo/Glimt bring a tight defence (rating 0.764, below 1 = concedes less than average) — this is pulling Brann's projected output down. Data: built from Brann's last 52 games and Bodo/Glimt's last 52.

Result probabilities: Brann 30% | Draw 27% | Bodo/Glimt 42%. Fair-value odds: Brann 3.29 | Draw 3.66 | Bodo/Glimt 2.37. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS Yes probability 49% | Total xG 2.41. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.41 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 51% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.

Picks & Verdict

On the Poisson output, Bodo/Glimt are the pick at 42% — marginal model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Bodo/Glimt if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

On the goals line, Poisson's 2.41 combined xG gives a 57% probability to Under 2.5 — low conviction — though the H2H data averaging 4.6 goals per game across 5 H2H matches points the other way.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 51%. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Brann 50% (last 10 home games) | Bodo/Glimt 60% (last 10 away games).

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