Bodo/Glimt 3-0 Viking – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Bodo/Glimt at 81% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Bodo/Glimt vs Viking encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Viking make the trip to Aspmyra Stadion to face Bodo/Glimt in Eliteserien, Regular Season - 30. The match kicks off on Saturday 19 December 2020 at 17:00 UTC.
Form
Bodo/Glimt (all games): 8W 1D 1L across 10 Eliteserien fixtures this term — 2.50 PPG. Last five: W W D W W. They are averaging 3.30 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Bodo/Glimt's home record at Aspmyra Stadion: 10W 0D 0L from 10 Eliteserien appearances (3.00 PPG). They are averaging 4.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 3.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 2.50 — Bodo/Glimt are significantly better at Aspmyra Stadion than their overall form suggests.
Viking have collected 1.60 PPG across 10 Eliteserien outings this season: 4W 4D 2L. Last five: W W W D D. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.30. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Viking away from home this season: 5W 3D 2L from 10 away games — 1.80 PPG on the road. They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Form favours the hosts. Bodo/Glimt's 2.50 PPG return is 0.90 points per game ahead of Viking's 1.60 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Bodo/Glimt have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Viking in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
Trading Data
Bodo/Glimt goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (29 games, 14 at home): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in home games; they lead at the break 79% of the time; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 86% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 69%.
Viking goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (29 games, 14 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 100% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Bodo/Glimt 72% and Viking 62% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Bodo/Glimt 90% | Viking 72%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Bodo/Glimt 3.62 xG and Viking 1.22 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bodo/Glimt attack 1.941 / defence 0.943 | Viking attack 0.937 / defence 1.363. League average goals — home 1.369 / away 1.375. Bodo/Glimt carry an above-average attack strength of 1.941 — their λ of 3.62 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Viking bring a strong defensive rating of 1.363 — this is suppressing Bodo/Glimt's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 29 Bodo/Glimt games / 29 Viking games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Bodo/Glimt 81% | Draw 12% | Viking 8%. Fair-value odds: Bodo/Glimt 1.23 | Draw 8.33 | Viking 12.50. The model has a clear lean to Bodo/Glimt (81%) — a 73pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 86% | BTTS probability 69% | Total xG 4.84. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 86% — a total xG of 4.84 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 69% reflects that both xG figures (3.62 / 1.22) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Bodo/Glimt as the most likely outcome at 81% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support.
On the goals line, Poisson's 4.84 combined xG gives a 86% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 4.2 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 69%. Form rates corroborate: Bodo/Glimt 60% | Viking 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Bodo/Glimt vs Viking | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 30 | Venue: Aspmyra Stadion • Kick-off: Saturday 19 Dec 2020, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Bodo/Glimt 81% | Draw 12% | Viking 8% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 86% | BTTS 69% | xG Bodo/Glimt 3.62 / Viking 1.22 • Poisson strength factors: Bodo/Glimt attack 1.941 / def 0.943 | Viking attack 0.937 / def 1.363 | league avg home 1.369 / away 1.375 • Poisson stance: Bodo/Glimt (81%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
3.62
Bodo/Glimt xG
Expected Goals
1.22
Viking xG
69%
BTTS
96%
Over 1.5
86%
Over 2.5
71%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Bodo/Glimt vs Viking kick off?
Bodo/Glimt vs Viking kicked off at 17:00 on Saturday 19 December 2020 at Aspmyra Stadion.
What was the final score in Bodo/Glimt vs Viking?
Bodo/Glimt 3 - 0 Viking.
Where is Bodo/Glimt vs Viking being played?
The match is being played at Aspmyra Stadion.
What competition is Bodo/Glimt vs Viking part of?
Bodo/Glimt vs Viking is a Regular Season - 30 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Bodo/Glimt vs Viking?
Our statistical model gives Bodo/Glimt a 81% chance of winning, Viking a 8% chance, and a 12% chance of a draw — making Bodo/Glimt the favourite.
Will both teams score in Bodo/Glimt vs Viking?
Our model estimates a 69% probability that both Bodo/Glimt and Viking will score (BTTS).
Will Bodo/Glimt vs Viking have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 86%.
What is the head-to-head record between Bodo/Glimt and Viking?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Bodo/Glimt and Viking in?
Bodo/Glimt (all comps): 8W-1D-1L in 10 | 2.50 PPG | GF 3.30 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-W-D-W-W. Viking (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-W-W-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Bodo/Glimt's attack at 1.94x the league average against Viking's defence at 1.36x — combine the two and it projects 3.62 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Viking's attack (0.94x) against Bodo/Glimt's defence (0.94x) — and the away total comes out at 1.22.
These ratings are built from 29/29 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 3-1 carries the highest individual probability at 7.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 4-1 (6.9%), 2-1 (6.3%). Together the top three scorelines make up 21% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Bodo/Glimt Win
81%
1.24
12%
8.68
8%
12.77
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
3 – 1
7.6%
Home win
Most likely
4 – 1
6.9%
Home win
2 – 1
6.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
3.62
Bodo/Glimt xG
Total xG
4.84
1.22
Viking xG
1.24
81%
Home win
8.68
12%
Draw
12.77
8%
Away win
Goals Markets
95%
Over 1.5
1.05
5%
Under 1.5
20.00
86%
Over 2.5
1.16
14%
Under 2.5
7.14
71%
Over 3.5
1.41
29%
Under 3.5
3.45
53%
Over 4.5
1.89
47%
Under 4.5
2.13
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
69%
BTTS Yes
1.45
31%
BTTS No
3.22
Clean Sheet
30%
3.37
3%
37.49
Win to Nil
24%
4.18
0%
–
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0.8 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 2.9 | 3.5 | 2.1 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 5.2 | 6.3 | 3.8 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.3 | 7.6 | 4.6 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 5.7 | 6.9 | 4.2 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 4.1 | 5.0 | 3.0 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Bodo/Glimt vs Viking?
Our Poisson model rates 3-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 7.6%.
How many goals are Bodo/Glimt and Viking expected to score?
The model projects 3.62 expected goals for Bodo/Glimt and 1.22 for Viking, a combined total of 4.84.
How confident is the prediction model for Bodo/Glimt vs Viking?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 81%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Bodo/Glimt come into this having played 29 games, going 25W 3D 1L for 2.69 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-D-W-W.
On the other side, Viking sit at 1.52 PPG from 29 outings (12W 8D 9L), a run that reads W-W-W-D-D across their last five.
Bodo/Glimt carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.17 PPG clear of Viking — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
Bodo/Glimt's home form reads 14W 0D 0L across 14 games on their own ground, a 3.00 PPG return.
Away from home, Viking have taken 1.36 points per game from 14 outings (5W 4D 5L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Bodo/Glimt come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Bodo/Glimt are averaging 3.45 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game recently; Viking are on 1.86 scored and 1.69 conceded. Both sides have been scoring freely, which tends to support the goals markets running hot in this fixture.
On BTTS specifically: Bodo/Glimt have seen both teams score in 72% of their recent games; Viking in 62%.
Last 29 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Bodo/Glimt
Current Season
Viking
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Bodo/Glimt and Viking in coming into this match?
Bodo/Glimt have gone 25W 3D 1L in their last 29 games (2.69 PPG), while Viking have gone 12W 8D 9L in their last 29 (1.52 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Bodo/Glimt at home or Viking away?
Bodo/Glimt's home record (3.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Bodo/Glimt at home: 3.00 PPG; Viking away: 1.36 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since September 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. They last met on 11 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Viking won 5-0 on 11 Apr 2026, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Bodo/Glimt have gone 3W 0D 1L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Viking — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Bodo/Glimt
1
Draws
4
Viking
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Bodo/Glimt and Viking?
From 10 meetings on record, Bodo/Glimt have won 5, Viking have won 4, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Bodo/Glimt and Viking last play each other?
They last met on 11 April 2026, when Viking 5-0 Bodo/Glimt.
Who has won more matches between Bodo/Glimt and Viking?
Bodo/Glimt have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Bodo/Glimt are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 86% of the time.
Viking are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Bodo/Glimt 64%, Viking 57% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 86% for Bodo/Glimt and 71% for Viking. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 64% and 29% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Bodo/Glimt keep a clean sheet in 36% of their matches; Viking in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Bodo/Glimt home games / Viking away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Bodo/Glimt play Viking?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 64% of Bodo/Glimt's games and 57% of Viking's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Bodo/Glimt vs Viking usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 86% of Bodo/Glimt's matches and 71% of Viking's.
Do Bodo/Glimt and Viking tend to score early?
Bodo/Glimt have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Viking in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Bodo/Glimt run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Viking.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Bodo/Glimt beat Viking 3-0 at Aspmyra Stadion, Regular Season - 30, in the Eliteserien. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Bodo/Glimt 3.62 xG and Viking 1.22 xG, a combined 4.84. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Viking landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bodo/Glimt attack 1.94 / defence 0.94 against Viking attack 0.94 / defence 1.36, drawn from 29/29 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Bodo/Glimt 81% | Draw 12% | Viking 8%, with Bodo/Glimt to win its most likely call at 81%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 86%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 96% and landed. Over 3.5 was 71% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 69% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 81% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bodo/Glimt 90%, Viking 72%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 67%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Bodo/Glimt's trading profile (29 games, 14 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 72% of their matches — today it did not.
Viking's trading profile (29 games, 14 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Bodo/Glimt arrived the stronger side — 2.69 PPG against 1.52. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Bodo/Glimt (home/away splits) managed 3 against a 4.00 scoring average — below par going forward. Viking (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.43 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.93 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.