Bodo/Glimt 4-2 Rosenborg – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Bodo/Glimt at 70% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Bodo/Glimt vs Rosenborg encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Bodo/Glimt and Rosenborg meet at Aspmyra Stadion in Eliteserien, Regular Season - 19. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 30 August 2026 at 12:30 UTC.
Current Form
Bodo/Glimt's overall Eliteserien record this term: 9W 1D 0L from 10 games (2.80 PPG). Last five: W W W W W. They are averaging 2.90 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.50 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for Bodo/Glimt, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Bodo/Glimt's form when playing at home: 9W 0D 1L across 10 games at Aspmyra Stadion this term (2.70 PPG). They are averaging 3.40 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 8 clean sheets from 10 home games (80%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Aspmyra Stadion. At home, both teams have scored in only 10% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Rosenborg (all games): 6W 1D 3L across 10 Eliteserien outings this term — 1.90 points per game. Last five: W W L W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.20 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Rosenborg, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Rosenborg away from home this season: 2W 1D 7L from 10 away games — 0.70 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 0.70 is notably below their overall 1.90 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form ledger tips toward Bodo/Glimt. A 0.90 PPG lead over Rosenborg (2.80 vs 1.90) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
Both sides have a strong clean-sheet tendency (using home/away splits) — Bodo/Glimt have seen both teams score in just 10% of their games, Rosenborg in only 20%. BTTS No has clear statistical support from both squads' form records.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 9 head-to-head meetings have produced 3 wins for Bodo/Glimt, 2 for Rosenborg and 4 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.9 goals per game across 9 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 29 May 2026, ended 2–2 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.9 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Bodo/Glimt — key trading statistics (47 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 91% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 75% of those occasions; they lead at the break 74% of the time; BTTS occurs in 30% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 74% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 45%; they keep a clean sheet 49% of the time.
Rosenborg — key trading statistics (47 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 91% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 35% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Bodo/Glimt 47% versus Rosenborg 45%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Bodo/Glimt 72% | Rosenborg 51%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Bodo/Glimt 2.21 xG and Rosenborg 0.78 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bodo/Glimt attack 1.402 / defence 0.582 | Rosenborg attack 0.973 / defence 0.932. League average goals — home 1.690 / away 1.376. Bodo/Glimt carry an above-average attack strength of 1.402 — their λ of 2.21 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Bodo/Glimt's defence rating of 0.582 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 47 Bodo/Glimt games / 47 Rosenborg games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Bodo/Glimt 70% | Draw 18% | Rosenborg 12%. Fair-value odds: Bodo/Glimt 1.43 | Draw 5.56 | Rosenborg 8.33. The model has a clear lean to Bodo/Glimt (70%) — a 58pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 57% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.99. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 57% — the 2.99 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Bodo/Glimt at 70% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 18% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.99 combined xG gives a 57% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.9 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 48%. Form rates corroborate: Bodo/Glimt 10% | Rosenborg 20% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Bodo/Glimt vs Rosenborg | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 19 | Venue: Aspmyra Stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 30 Aug 2026, 12:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Bodo/Glimt 70% | Draw 18% | Rosenborg 12% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 57% | BTTS 48% | xG Bodo/Glimt 2.21 / Rosenborg 0.78 • Poisson strength factors: Bodo/Glimt attack 1.402 / def 0.582 | Rosenborg attack 0.973 / def 0.932 | league avg home 1.690 / away 1.376 • Poisson stance: Bodo/Glimt (70%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.21
Bodo/Glimt xG
Expected Goals
0.78
Rosenborg xG
48%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
57%
Over 2.5
35%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Bodo/Glimt vs Rosenborg kick off?
Bodo/Glimt vs Rosenborg kicked off at 12:30 on Sunday 30 August 2026 at Aspmyra Stadion.
What was the final score in Bodo/Glimt vs Rosenborg?
Bodo/Glimt 4 - 2 Rosenborg.
Where is Bodo/Glimt vs Rosenborg being played?
The match is being played at Aspmyra Stadion.
What competition is Bodo/Glimt vs Rosenborg part of?
Bodo/Glimt vs Rosenborg is a Regular Season - 19 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Bodo/Glimt vs Rosenborg?
Our statistical model gives Bodo/Glimt a 70% chance of winning, Rosenborg a 12% chance, and a 18% chance of a draw — making Bodo/Glimt the favourite.
Will both teams score in Bodo/Glimt vs Rosenborg?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Bodo/Glimt and Rosenborg will score (BTTS).
Will Bodo/Glimt vs Rosenborg have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 57%.
What is the head-to-head record between Bodo/Glimt and Rosenborg?
Record (9 meetings): Bodo/Glimt 3W | Draws 4 | Rosenborg 2W.
What form are Bodo/Glimt and Rosenborg in?
Bodo/Glimt (all comps): 9W-1D-0L in 10 | 2.80 PPG | GF 2.90 / GA 0.50 | L5 W-W-W-W-W. Rosenborg (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 2.20 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-W-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Bodo/Glimt's attack rating (1.40) and Rosenborg's defence rating (0.93), the model arrives at 2.21 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Rosenborg's attack (0.97x) against Bodo/Glimt's defence (0.58x) — and the away total comes out at 0.78.
These ratings are built from 47/47 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 2-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.3%. Close behind: 1-0 (10.0%), 1-1 (9.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Bodo/Glimt Win
70%
1.43
18%
5.48
12%
8.48
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
12.3%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 0
11.1%
Home win
2 – 1
9.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.21
Bodo/Glimt xG
Total xG
2.99
0.78
Rosenborg xG
1.43
70%
Home win
5.48
18%
Draw
8.48
12%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
57%
Over 2.5
1.75
43%
Under 2.5
2.33
35%
Over 3.5
2.86
65%
Under 3.5
1.54
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.07
52%
BTTS No
1.93
Clean Sheet
46%
2.18
11%
9.11
Win to Nil
32%
3.12
1%
77.24
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.0 | 3.9 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 11.1 | 8.7 | 3.4 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 12.3 | 9.6 | 3.7 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 9.0 | 7.1 | 2.8 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 5.0 | 3.9 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 2.2 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Bodo/Glimt vs Rosenborg?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.3%.
How many goals are Bodo/Glimt and Rosenborg expected to score?
The model projects 2.21 expected goals for Bodo/Glimt and 0.78 for Rosenborg, a combined total of 2.99.
How confident is the prediction model for Bodo/Glimt vs Rosenborg?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 70%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Bodo/Glimt's recent record stands at 35W 6D 6L from 47 games, a 2.36 PPG return, with W-W-W-W-W in the last five. The sample for Bodo/Glimt is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Rosenborg, meanwhile, have gone 18W 12D 17L across 47 games — 1.40 PPG, with W-W-L-W-W in their last five. The sample for Rosenborg is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Bodo/Glimt by 0.96 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Rosenborg heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Bodo/Glimt have managed 19W 1D 3L from 23 games — 2.52 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Rosenborg's away record stands at 6W 4D 13L across 23 trips, a 0.96 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.40 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Rosenborg's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Bodo/Glimt come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Bodo/Glimt are averaging 2.72 goals scored and 0.85 conceded per game recently; Rosenborg are on 1.49 scored and 1.36 conceded.
Defensively: Bodo/Glimt have kept a clean sheet in 49% of their games; Rosenborg in 36% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 47 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Bodo/Glimt
Blended
Rosenborg
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Bodo/Glimt and Rosenborg in coming into this match?
Bodo/Glimt have gone 35W 6D 6L in their last 47 games (2.36 PPG), while Rosenborg have gone 18W 12D 17L in their last 47 (1.40 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Bodo/Glimt at home or Rosenborg away?
Bodo/Glimt's home record (2.52 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Bodo/Glimt at home: 2.52 PPG; Rosenborg away: 0.96 PPG.
Have Bodo/Glimt or Rosenborg been keeping clean sheets recently?
Bodo/Glimt have kept a clean sheet in 49% of their recent games, Rosenborg in 36%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since April 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. The two were last together as recently as 30 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Bodo/Glimt won 4-0 on 24 May 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Bodo/Glimt have gone 3W 1D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Rosenborg — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Bodo/Glimt
4
Draws
2
Rosenborg
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Bodo/Glimt and Rosenborg?
From 10 meetings on record, Bodo/Glimt have won 4, Rosenborg have won 2, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Bodo/Glimt and Rosenborg last play each other?
They last met on 30 August 2026, when Bodo/Glimt 4-2 Rosenborg.
Who has won more matches between Bodo/Glimt and Rosenborg?
Bodo/Glimt have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Bodo/Glimt are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 91% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 78% of the time.
Rosenborg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 91% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
Neither side has been leaking BTTS chances often — 30% (Bodo/Glimt) and 35% (Rosenborg) both sit on the low side, favouring BTTS No.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 74% for Bodo/Glimt and 56% for Rosenborg. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 48% and 35% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Bodo/Glimt keep a clean sheet in 65% of their matches; Rosenborg in 30%; Rosenborg in 44%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Bodo/Glimt home games / Rosenborg away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Bodo/Glimt play Rosenborg?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 30% of Bodo/Glimt's recent matches and 35% of Rosenborg's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Bodo/Glimt vs Rosenborg usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 74% of Bodo/Glimt's matches and 56% of Rosenborg's.
Do Bodo/Glimt and Rosenborg tend to score early?
Bodo/Glimt have had a goal before half-time in 91% of their recent matches, Rosenborg in 91% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Bodo/Glimt cruise to a comfortable 4-2 victory over Rosenborg.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Bodo/Glimt beat Rosenborg 4-2 at Aspmyra Stadion, Regular Season - 19, in the Eliteserien. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Bodo/Glimt 2.21 xG and Rosenborg 0.78 xG, a combined 2.99. The scoreboard read 4-2 for 6 actual goals. Bodo/Glimt beat their projection by 1.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Rosenborg outscored their 0.78 projection by 1.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bodo/Glimt attack 1.40 / defence 0.58 against Rosenborg attack 0.97 / defence 0.93, drawn from 47/47 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Bodo/Glimt 70% | Draw 18% | Rosenborg 12%, with Bodo/Glimt to win its most likely call at 70%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. Over 3.5 was 35% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bodo/Glimt 72%, Rosenborg 51%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Bodo/Glimt's trading profile (47 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 49% of the time, and conceded here.
Rosenborg's trading profile (47 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Bodo/Glimt arrived the stronger side — 2.36 PPG against 1.40. Form held, and they took the win. Bodo/Glimt (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.57 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Rosenborg (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.09 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 4 against a 1.83 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.