Bodo/Glimt vs Kristiansund BK – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model favours Bodo/Glimt (81%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Bodo/Glimt face Kristiansund BK.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Eliteserien clash, Regular Season - 23 as Bodo/Glimt welcome Kristiansund BK to Aspmyra Stadion. Kick-off is set for Sunday 11 October 2026 at 15:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Eliteserien games this season, Bodo/Glimt have gone 9W 1D 0L from 10 outings — a 2.80 PPG return. Last five: W W W W W. They are averaging 2.80 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for Bodo/Glimt, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Bodo/Glimt at Aspmyra Stadion this season: 9W 0D 1L from 10 home games — 2.70 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 3.30 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 7 clean sheets from 10 home games (70%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Aspmyra Stadion. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Kristiansund BK stand at 2W 2D 6L from 10 Eliteserien matches — 0.80 PPG. Last five: L L W L D. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Kristiansund BK, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Kristiansund BK have gone 1W 2D 7L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.50 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game.
Bodo/Glimt carry the stronger recent momentum — 2.00 PPG ahead of their opponents on 2.80 vs 0.80. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
H2H
The historical ledger comes down firmly in favour of Bodo/Glimt: 9 wins from 10 previous clashes against 0 for Kristiansund BK, with 1 draws across those contests.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 10 meetings have averaged 4.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 6 Apr 2026, ended 3–0 with Bodo/Glimt winning.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Bodo/Glimt and goals. The home side's 9 wins from 10 meetings, combined with an average of 4.0 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
Trading Patterns
Bodo/Glimt in-play and half-time data (47 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 92% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 75% of those occasions; they lead at the break 72% of the time; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 47%; they keep a clean sheet 47% of the time.
Kristiansund BK in-play and half-time data (47 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 69% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Bodo/Glimt 49% versus Kristiansund BK 60%; no strong lean in either direction. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Bodo/Glimt 74% | Kristiansund BK 57%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Bodo/Glimt 2.82 xG and Kristiansund BK 0.69 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bodo/Glimt attack 1.515 / defence 0.671 | Kristiansund BK attack 0.719 / defence 1.087. League average goals — home 1.712 / away 1.422. Bodo/Glimt carry an above-average attack strength of 1.515 — their λ of 2.82 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Bodo/Glimt's defence rating of 0.671 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 48 Bodo/Glimt games / 47 Kristiansund BK games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Bodo/Glimt 81% | Draw 12% | Kristiansund BK 6%. Fair-value odds: Bodo/Glimt 1.23 | Draw 8.33 | Kristiansund BK 16.67. The model has a clear lean to Bodo/Glimt (81%) — a 75pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 68% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 3.50. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 68% — a total xG of 3.50 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Bodo/Glimt at 81% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support.
The Poisson model projects 3.50 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 68% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game and H2H averaging 4.0 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 47% on No. Form rates corroborate: Bodo/Glimt 20% | Kristiansund BK 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Bodo/Glimt vs Kristiansund BK | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 23 | Venue: Aspmyra Stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 11 Oct 2026, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Bodo/Glimt 81% | Draw 12% | Kristiansund BK 6% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 68% | BTTS 47% | xG Bodo/Glimt 2.82 / Kristiansund BK 0.69 • Poisson strength factors: Bodo/Glimt attack 1.515 / def 0.671 | Kristiansund BK attack 0.719 / def 1.087 | league avg home 1.712 / away 1.422 • Poisson stance: Bodo/Glimt (81%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.82
Bodo/Glimt xG
Expected Goals
0.69
Kristiansund BK xG
47%
BTTS
87%
Over 1.5
68%
Over 2.5
46%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Bodo/Glimt vs Kristiansund BK kick off?
Bodo/Glimt vs Kristiansund BK is scheduled to kick off at 15:00 on Sunday 11 October 2026 at Aspmyra Stadion.
Where is Bodo/Glimt vs Kristiansund BK being played?
The match is being played at Aspmyra Stadion.
What competition is Bodo/Glimt vs Kristiansund BK part of?
Bodo/Glimt vs Kristiansund BK is a Regular Season - 23 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Bodo/Glimt vs Kristiansund BK?
Our statistical model gives Bodo/Glimt a 81% chance of winning, Kristiansund BK a 6% chance, and a 12% chance of a draw — making Bodo/Glimt the favourite.
Will both teams score in Bodo/Glimt vs Kristiansund BK?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Bodo/Glimt and Kristiansund BK will score (BTTS).
Will Bodo/Glimt vs Kristiansund BK have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 68%.
What is the head-to-head record between Bodo/Glimt and Kristiansund BK?
Record (10 meetings): Bodo/Glimt 9W | Draws 1 | Kristiansund BK 0W.
What form are Bodo/Glimt and Kristiansund BK in?
Bodo/Glimt (all comps): 9W-1D-0L in 10 | 2.80 PPG | GF 2.80 / GA 0.70 | L5 W-W-W-W-W. Kristiansund BK (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-L-W-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Bodo/Glimt's attacking strength (1.51x league average) is weighed against Kristiansund BK's defensive record (1.09x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.82. The same calculation in reverse, Kristiansund BK's attack versus Bodo/Glimt's defence, projects 0.69 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 48/47 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 2-0, at 11.9%. Close behind: 3-0 (11.2%), 2-1 (8.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Bodo/Glimt Win
81%
1.23
12%
8.05
6%
15.77
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
11.9%
Home win
Most likely
3 – 0
11.2%
Home win
1 – 0
8.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.82
Bodo/Glimt xG
Total xG
3.50
0.69
Kristiansund BK xG
1.23
81%
Home win
8.05
12%
Draw
15.77
6%
Away win
Goals Markets
86%
Over 1.5
1.16
14%
Under 1.5
7.14
68%
Over 2.5
1.47
32%
Under 2.5
3.12
46%
Over 3.5
2.17
54%
Under 3.5
1.85
28%
Over 4.5
3.57
72%
Under 4.5
1.39
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.14
53%
BTTS No
1.88
Clean Sheet
50%
1.99
6%
16.76
Win to Nil
41%
2.44
0%
–
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.0 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 1 | 8.5 | 5.8 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 11.9 | 8.2 | 2.8 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 11.2 | 7.7 | 2.6 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 7.9 | 5.4 | 1.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 4.5 | 3.1 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Bodo/Glimt vs Kristiansund BK?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.9%.
How many goals are Bodo/Glimt and Kristiansund BK expected to score?
The model projects 2.82 expected goals for Bodo/Glimt and 0.69 for Kristiansund BK, a combined total of 3.50.
How confident is the prediction model for Bodo/Glimt vs Kristiansund BK?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 81%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Bodo/Glimt come into this having played 47 games, going 35W 6D 6L for 2.36 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-W-W-W. The sample for Bodo/Glimt is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Kristiansund BK sit at 1.06 PPG from 47 outings (13W 11D 23L), a run that reads L-L-W-L-D across their last five. The sample for Kristiansund BK is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Bodo/Glimt carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.30 PPG clear of Kristiansund BK — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Bodo/Glimt's home form reads 20W 1D 3L across 24 games on their own ground, a 2.54 PPG return.
Away from home, Kristiansund BK have taken 0.83 points per game from 24 outings (5W 5D 14L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Bodo/Glimt come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Bodo/Glimt are averaging 2.79 goals scored and 0.89 conceded per game recently; Kristiansund BK are on 1.09 scored and 1.81 conceded.
Defensively: Bodo/Glimt have kept a clean sheet in 47% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 47 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Bodo/Glimt
Blended
Kristiansund BK
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Bodo/Glimt and Kristiansund BK in coming into this match?
Bodo/Glimt have gone 35W 6D 6L in their last 47 games (2.36 PPG), while Kristiansund BK have gone 13W 11D 23L in their last 47 (1.06 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Bodo/Glimt at home or Kristiansund BK away?
Bodo/Glimt's home record (2.54 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Bodo/Glimt at home: 2.54 PPG; Kristiansund BK away: 0.83 PPG.
Have Bodo/Glimt or Kristiansund BK been keeping clean sheets recently?
Bodo/Glimt have kept a clean sheet in 47% of their recent games, Kristiansund BK in 15%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Bodo/Glimt and Kristiansund BK runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2020. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. They last met on 6 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Bodo/Glimt have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 12 Sep 2025, when Bodo/Glimt won 7-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Bodo/Glimt's record when hosting Kristiansund BK specifically: 4W 0D 0L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
9
Bodo/Glimt
1
Draws
0
Kristiansund BK
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Bodo/Glimt and Kristiansund BK?
From 10 meetings on record, Bodo/Glimt have won 9, Kristiansund BK have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Bodo/Glimt and Kristiansund BK last play each other?
They last met on 6 April 2026, when Kristiansund BK 0-3 Bodo/Glimt.
Who has won more matches between Bodo/Glimt and Kristiansund BK?
Bodo/Glimt have the better head-to-head record, with 9 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Bodo/Glimt are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 92% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 75% of the time.
Kristiansund BK are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Bodo/Glimt 33%, Kristiansund BK 58% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 75% for Bodo/Glimt and 54% for Kristiansund BK. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 50% and 33% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Bodo/Glimt keep a clean sheet in 62% of their matches; Kristiansund BK in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Bodo/Glimt home games / Kristiansund BK away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Bodo/Glimt play Kristiansund BK?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 33% of Bodo/Glimt's recent matches and 58% of Kristiansund BK's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Bodo/Glimt vs Kristiansund BK usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 75% of Bodo/Glimt's matches and 54% of Kristiansund BK's.
Do Bodo/Glimt and Kristiansund BK tend to score early?
Bodo/Glimt have had a goal before half-time in 92% of their recent matches, Kristiansund BK in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.