Bodo/Glimt 2-0 Haugesund – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Bodo/Glimt (85%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Bodo/Glimt face Haugesund.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Bodo/Glimt host Haugesund at Aspmyra Stadion in Eliteserien, Regular Season - 24. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 5 October 2025 at 16:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Bodo/Glimt — All Games: 8W 2D 0L from 10 Eliteserien outings this season, averaging 2.60 points per game. Last five: D W W W D. They are averaging 3.20 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Bodo/Glimt, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Bodo/Glimt's home record at Aspmyra Stadion: 7W 1D 2L from 10 Eliteserien appearances (2.20 PPG). They are averaging 3.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Aspmyra Stadion.
Across all Eliteserien games this season, Haugesund have recorded 1W 1D 8L from 10 outings — 0.40 PPG. Last five: L D L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 2.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.50 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. This season is still relatively young for Haugesund, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Haugesund's form when playing away from home: 0W 1D 9L across 10 road games this term (0.10 PPG). Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 2.70 conceded per game.
Bodo/Glimt are in the better shape of the two on current Eliteserien data — 2.20 PPG ahead (2.60 vs 0.40). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
H2H Record
The fixture history tells a clear story: Bodo/Glimt have dominated this rivalry, winning 7 of 9 past contests while Haugesund have managed just 0 wins.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 9 meetings have averaged 3.4 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 1 Jun 2025, ended 4–0 with Bodo/Glimt winning.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Bodo/Glimt and goals. The home side's 7 wins from 9 meetings, combined with an average of 3.4 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
In-Play Profile
Bodo/Glimt in-play tendencies (52 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 84% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; they lead at the break 48% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 76% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 46%; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time.
Haugesund in-play tendencies (52 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 72% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%; they fail to score in 48% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Bodo/Glimt 56% versus Haugesund 40%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Bodo/Glimt 64% | Haugesund 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Bodo/Glimt 3.32 xG and Haugesund 0.77 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bodo/Glimt attack 1.499 / defence 0.866 | Haugesund attack 0.691 / defence 1.285. League average goals — home 1.724 / away 1.290. Bodo/Glimt carry an above-average attack strength of 1.499 — their λ of 3.32 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Haugesund bring a strong defensive rating of 1.285 — this is suppressing Bodo/Glimt's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 52 Bodo/Glimt games / 53 Haugesund games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Bodo/Glimt 85% | Draw 10% | Haugesund 5%. Fair-value odds: Bodo/Glimt 1.18 | Draw 10.00 | Haugesund 20.00. The model has a clear lean to Bodo/Glimt (85%) — a 80pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 78% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 4.09. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 78% — a total xG of 4.09 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Bodo/Glimt are the pick at 85% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support.
On the goals line, Poisson's 4.09 combined xG gives a 78% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 3.7 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.4 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 52% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Bodo/Glimt 50% | Haugesund 50%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Bodo/Glimt vs Haugesund | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 24 | Venue: Aspmyra Stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 5 Oct 2025, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Bodo/Glimt 85% | Draw 10% | Haugesund 5% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 78% | BTTS 52% | xG Bodo/Glimt 3.32 / Haugesund 0.77 • Poisson strength factors: Bodo/Glimt attack 1.499 / def 0.866 | Haugesund attack 0.691 / def 1.285 | league avg home 1.724 / away 1.290 • Poisson stance: Bodo/Glimt (85%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
3.32
Bodo/Glimt xG
Expected Goals
0.77
Haugesund xG
52%
BTTS
92%
Over 1.5
78%
Over 2.5
58%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Bodo/Glimt vs Haugesund kick off?
Bodo/Glimt vs Haugesund kicked off at 16:00 on Sunday 5 October 2025 at Aspmyra Stadion.
What was the final score in Bodo/Glimt vs Haugesund?
Bodo/Glimt 2 - 0 Haugesund.
Where is Bodo/Glimt vs Haugesund being played?
The match is being played at Aspmyra Stadion.
What competition is Bodo/Glimt vs Haugesund part of?
Bodo/Glimt vs Haugesund is a Regular Season - 24 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Bodo/Glimt vs Haugesund?
Our statistical model gives Bodo/Glimt a 85% chance of winning, Haugesund a 5% chance, and a 10% chance of a draw — making Bodo/Glimt the favourite.
Will both teams score in Bodo/Glimt vs Haugesund?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Bodo/Glimt and Haugesund will score (BTTS).
Will Bodo/Glimt vs Haugesund have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 78%.
What is the head-to-head record between Bodo/Glimt and Haugesund?
Record (9 meetings): Bodo/Glimt 7W | Draws 2 | Haugesund 0W.
What form are Bodo/Glimt and Haugesund in?
Bodo/Glimt (all comps): 8W-2D-0L in 10 | 2.60 PPG | GF 3.20 / GA 0.90 | L5 D-W-W-W-D. Haugesund (all comps): 1W-1D-8L in 10 | 0.40 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 2.50 | L5 L-D-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Bodo/Glimt's attack rating (1.50) and Haugesund's defence rating (1.28), the model arrives at 3.32 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Haugesund's attack versus Bodo/Glimt's defence, projects 0.77 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 52/53 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 3-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 10.2%. Close behind: 2-0 (9.2%), 4-0 (8.5%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Bodo/Glimt Win
85%
1.17
10%
10.42
5%
19.31
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
3 – 0
10.2%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
9.2%
Home win
4 – 0
8.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
3.32
Bodo/Glimt xG
Total xG
4.09
0.77
Haugesund xG
1.17
85%
Home win
10.42
10%
Draw
19.31
5%
Away win
Goals Markets
92%
Over 1.5
1.09
8%
Under 1.5
12.50
78%
Over 2.5
1.28
22%
Under 2.5
4.55
58%
Over 3.5
1.72
42%
Under 3.5
2.38
39%
Over 4.5
2.56
61%
Under 4.5
1.64
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.93
48%
BTTS No
2.08
Clean Sheet
46%
2.16
4%
27.69
Win to Nil
39%
2.54
0%
–
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1.7 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 1 | 5.5 | 4.3 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 9.2 | 7.1 | 2.7 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 10.2 | 7.9 | 3.0 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 8.5 | 6.5 | 2.5 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 5.6 | 4.3 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Bodo/Glimt vs Haugesund?
Our Poisson model rates 3-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.2%.
How many goals are Bodo/Glimt and Haugesund expected to score?
The model projects 3.32 expected goals for Bodo/Glimt and 0.77 for Haugesund, a combined total of 4.09.
How confident is the prediction model for Bodo/Glimt vs Haugesund?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 85%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Bodo/Glimt's recent record stands at 33W 12D 7L from 52 games, a 2.13 PPG return, with D-W-W-W-D in the last five. The sample for Bodo/Glimt is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Haugesund, meanwhile, have gone 9W 10D 33L across 52 games — 0.71 PPG, with L-D-L-L-L in their last five. The sample for Haugesund is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Bodo/Glimt by 1.42 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Haugesund heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Bodo/Glimt have managed 17W 5D 3L from 25 games — 2.24 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Haugesund's away record stands at 1W 7D 17L across 25 trips, a 0.40 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Bodo/Glimt come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Bodo/Glimt are averaging 2.50 goals scored and 0.98 conceded per game recently; Haugesund are on 0.81 scored and 1.96 conceded.
Defensively: Bodo/Glimt have kept a clean sheet in 42% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 52 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Bodo/Glimt
Blended
Haugesund
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Bodo/Glimt and Haugesund in coming into this match?
Bodo/Glimt have gone 33W 12D 7L in their last 52 games (2.13 PPG), while Haugesund have gone 9W 10D 33L in their last 52 (0.71 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Bodo/Glimt at home or Haugesund away?
Bodo/Glimt's home record (2.24 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Bodo/Glimt at home: 2.24 PPG; Haugesund away: 0.40 PPG.
Have Bodo/Glimt or Haugesund been keeping clean sheets recently?
Bodo/Glimt have kept a clean sheet in 42% of their recent games, Haugesund in 21%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Bodo/Glimt and Haugesund runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to May 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. They last met on 5 October 2025, roughly 10 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Bodo/Glimt go into this on the back of 6 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 1 Jun 2025, when Bodo/Glimt won 0-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Bodo/Glimt's record when hosting Haugesund specifically: 4W 1D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
8
Bodo/Glimt
2
Draws
0
Haugesund
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Bodo/Glimt and Haugesund?
From 10 meetings on record, Bodo/Glimt have won 8, Haugesund have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Bodo/Glimt and Haugesund last play each other?
They last met on 5 October 2025, when Bodo/Glimt 2-0 Haugesund.
Who has won more matches between Bodo/Glimt and Haugesund?
Bodo/Glimt have the better head-to-head record, with 8 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Bodo/Glimt are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 84% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 52% of the time.
Haugesund are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Bodo/Glimt 56%, Haugesund 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 76% for Bodo/Glimt and 60% for Haugesund. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 56% and 48% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Bodo/Glimt keep a clean sheet in 44% of their matches; Haugesund in 44%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Bodo/Glimt home games / Haugesund away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Bodo/Glimt play Haugesund?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 56% of Bodo/Glimt's recent matches and 52% of Haugesund's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Bodo/Glimt vs Haugesund usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 76% of Bodo/Glimt's matches and 60% of Haugesund's.
Do Bodo/Glimt and Haugesund tend to score early?
Bodo/Glimt have had a goal before half-time in 84% of their recent matches, Haugesund in 76% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Bodo/Glimt cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Haugesund.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Bodo/Glimt beat Haugesund 2-0 at Aspmyra Stadion, Regular Season - 24, in the Eliteserien. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Bodo/Glimt 3.32 xG and Haugesund 0.77 xG, a combined 4.09. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Bodo/Glimt fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bodo/Glimt attack 1.50 / defence 0.87 against Haugesund attack 0.69 / defence 1.28, drawn from 52/53 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Bodo/Glimt 85% | Draw 10% | Haugesund 5%, with Bodo/Glimt to win its most likely call at 85%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 78%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 92% and landed. Over 3.5 was 58% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bodo/Glimt 64%, Haugesund 54%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Bodo/Glimt's trading profile (52 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time, and duly kept one.
Haugesund's trading profile (52 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 48% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Bodo/Glimt arrived the stronger side — 2.13 PPG against 0.71. Form held, and they took the win. Bodo/Glimt (home/away splits) managed 2 against a 3.08 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line. Haugesund (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.84 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.