Aalesund 5-5 Valerenga – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Aalesund at 43%, yet other data sources diverge — this Aalesund vs Valerenga fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Eliteserien clash, Regular Season - 18 as Aalesund welcome Valerenga to Color Line Stadion. Kick-off is set for Sunday 16 August 2026 at 12:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Eliteserien games this season, Aalesund have gone 2W 5D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.10 PPG return. Last five: D L D L D. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 2.30 conceded. However, 2.30 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Aalesund, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Color Line Stadion, Aalesund have gone 1W 5D 4L this season (10 games, 0.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 90% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Valerenga stand at 4W 1D 5L from 10 Eliteserien matches — 1.30 PPG. Last five: L W W L L. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 2.00. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Valerenga, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Valerenga away from home this season: 2W 1D 7L from 10 away games — 0.70 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 2.30 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.70 is notably below their overall 1.30 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Aalesund 1.10 PPG, Valerenga 1.30 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
Head to Head
Despite the anticipated home advantage, Valerenga have the better historical record — 4 wins from 7 previous contests against 0 for Aalesund.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 7 meetings have averaged 3.7 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 16 Jul 2026, ended 1–6 with Valerenga winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Valerenga have won 4 of 7 previous encounters, and at 3.7 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
Trading Patterns
Aalesund in-play and half-time data (18 games, 9 at home): they score before half-time in 89% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 100% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 78% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 50%.
Valerenga in-play and half-time data (18 games, 9 at away): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 44%; they fail to score in 39% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Aalesund 78% and Valerenga 50% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Aalesund 61% | Valerenga 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Aalesund 1.99 xG and Valerenga 1.80 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Aalesund attack 0.970 / defence 1.491 | Valerenga attack 0.891 / defence 1.246. League average goals — home 1.644 / away 1.354. Valerenga bring a strong defensive rating of 1.246 — this is suppressing Aalesund's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 16 Aalesund games / 45 Valerenga games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Aalesund 43% | Draw 21% | Valerenga 36%. Fair-value odds: Aalesund 2.33 | Draw 4.76 | Valerenga 2.78. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 21% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 73% | BTTS probability 72% | Total xG 3.79. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 73% — a total xG of 3.79 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 72% reflects that both xG figures (1.99 / 1.80) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Aalesund are the pick at 43% — marginal model lean. The opposing side holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.79 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 73% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 3.5 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.7 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 72% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Aalesund 90% | Valerenga 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Aalesund vs Valerenga | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 18 | Venue: Color Line Stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 16 Aug 2026, 12:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Aalesund 43% | Draw 21% | Valerenga 36% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 73% | BTTS 72% | xG Aalesund 1.99 / Valerenga 1.80 • Poisson strength factors: Aalesund attack 0.970 / def 1.491 | Valerenga attack 0.891 / def 1.246 | league avg home 1.644 / away 1.354 • Poisson stance: Aalesund (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.99
Aalesund xG
Expected Goals
1.80
Valerenga xG
72%
BTTS
89%
Over 1.5
73%
Over 2.5
52%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Aalesund vs Valerenga kick off?
Aalesund vs Valerenga kicked off at 12:30 on Sunday 16 August 2026 at Color Line Stadion.
What was the final score in Aalesund vs Valerenga?
Aalesund 5 - 5 Valerenga.
Where is Aalesund vs Valerenga being played?
The match is being played at Color Line Stadion.
What competition is Aalesund vs Valerenga part of?
Aalesund vs Valerenga is a Regular Season - 18 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Aalesund vs Valerenga?
Our statistical model gives Aalesund a 43% chance of winning, Valerenga a 36% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making Aalesund the favourite.
Will both teams score in Aalesund vs Valerenga?
Our model estimates a 72% probability that both Aalesund and Valerenga will score (BTTS).
Will Aalesund vs Valerenga have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 73%.
What is the head-to-head record between Aalesund and Valerenga?
Record (7 meetings): Aalesund 0W | Draws 3 | Valerenga 4W.
What form are Aalesund and Valerenga in?
Aalesund (all comps): 2W-5D-3L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 2.30 | L5 D-L-D-L-D. Valerenga (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-W-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Aalesund's attack rating (0.97) and Valerenga's defence rating (1.25), the model arrives at 1.99 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Valerenga's attack versus Aalesund's defence, projects 1.80 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 16/45 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 9.2%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.1%), 1-2 (7.3%). Together the top three scorelines make up 24% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Aalesund Win
43%
2.32
21%
4.71
36%
2.81
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
8.1%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.1%
Home win
1 – 2
7.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.99
Aalesund xG
Total xG
3.79
1.80
Valerenga xG
2.32
43%
Home win
4.71
21%
Draw
2.81
36%
Away win
Goals Markets
89%
Over 1.5
1.12
11%
Under 1.5
9.09
73%
Over 2.5
1.37
27%
Under 2.5
3.70
52%
Over 3.5
1.92
48%
Under 3.5
2.08
33%
Over 4.5
3.03
67%
Under 4.5
1.49
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
72%
BTTS Yes
1.39
28%
BTTS No
3.58
Clean Sheet
17%
6.05
14%
7.30
Win to Nil
7%
14.03
5%
20.48
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.3 | 4.1 | 3.7 | 2.2 | 1.0 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 4.5 | 8.1 | 7.3 | 4.4 | 2.0 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 4.5 | 8.1 | 7.2 | 4.3 | 2.0 | 0.7 |
| 3 | 3.0 | 5.3 | 4.8 | 2.9 | 1.3 | 0.5 |
| 4 | 1.5 | 2.7 | 2.4 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 5 | 0.6 | 1.1 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Aalesund vs Valerenga?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.2%.
How many goals are Aalesund and Valerenga expected to score?
The model projects 1.99 expected goals for Aalesund and 1.80 for Valerenga, a combined total of 3.79.
How confident is the prediction model for Aalesund vs Valerenga?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Aalesund's recent record stands at 3W 8D 7L from 18 games, a 0.94 PPG return, with D-L-D-L-D in the last five. The sample for Aalesund is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Valerenga, meanwhile, have gone 6W 2D 10L across 18 games — 1.11 PPG, with L-W-W-L-L in their last five. The sample for Valerenga is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Aalesund on 0.94 PPG, Valerenga on 1.11. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Aalesund have managed 1W 5D 3L from 9 games — 0.89 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Valerenga's away record stands at 2W 1D 6L across 9 trips, a 0.78 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
Aalesund are averaging 1.44 goals scored and 2.06 conceded per game recently; Valerenga are on 1.33 scored and 1.94 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Aalesund have seen both teams score in 78% of their recent games.
Last 18 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Aalesund
Blended
Valerenga
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Aalesund and Valerenga in coming into this match?
Aalesund have gone 3W 8D 7L in their last 18 games (0.94 PPG), while Valerenga have gone 6W 2D 10L in their last 18 (1.11 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Aalesund at home or Valerenga away?
Aalesund's home record (0.89 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Aalesund at home: 0.89 PPG; Valerenga away: 0.78 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Aalesund and Valerenga runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to July 2020. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. The two were last together as recently as 16 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 16 Jul 2026, when Valerenga won 6-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Aalesund's record when hosting Valerenga specifically: 0W 3D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
0
Aalesund
4
Draws
4
Valerenga
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Aalesund and Valerenga?
From 8 meetings on record, Aalesund have won 0, Valerenga have won 4, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Aalesund and Valerenga last play each other?
They last met on 16 August 2026, when Aalesund 5-5 Valerenga.
Who has won more matches between Aalesund and Valerenga?
Valerenga have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Aalesund are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 89% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 22% of those situations.
Valerenga are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Aalesund at 100%, Valerenga at 44%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 78% for Aalesund and 44% for Valerenga. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 67% and 44% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Valerenga in 44%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Aalesund home games / Valerenga away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Aalesund play Valerenga?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 100% of Aalesund's games and 44% of Valerenga's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Aalesund vs Valerenga usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 78% of Aalesund's matches and 44% of Valerenga's.
Do Aalesund and Valerenga tend to score early?
Aalesund have had a goal before half-time in 89% of their recent matches, Valerenga in 78% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Aalesund and Valerenga share the spoils in a 5-5 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Color Line Stadion, Regular Season - 18, as Aalesund and Valerenga drew 5-5 in the Eliteserien. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Aalesund 1.99 xG and Valerenga 1.80 xG, a combined 3.79. The scoreboard read 5-5 for 10 actual goals. Aalesund beat their projection by 3.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Valerenga outscored their 1.80 projection by 3.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Aalesund attack 0.97 / defence 1.49 against Valerenga attack 0.89 / defence 1.25, drawn from 16/45 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Aalesund 43% | Draw 21% | Valerenga 36%, with Aalesund to win its most likely call at 43%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 21% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 73%. The game delivered 10, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 89% and landed. Over 3.5 was 52% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 72% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Aalesund 61%, Valerenga 56%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 64%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Aalesund's trading profile (18 games, 9 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 78% of their matches — today it did.
Valerenga's trading profile (18 games, 9 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Aalesund 0.94 PPG, Valerenga 1.11 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Aalesund (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 1.67 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 5 against a 2.33 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Valerenga (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 0.89 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 5 against a 2.33 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.