Aalesund 1-3 Stabaek – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Stabaek at 61% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Aalesund vs Stabaek encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Color Line Stadion plays host to Aalesund versus Stabaek in Eliteserien, Regular Season - 9. Kick-off: Sunday 19 July 2020 at 17:00 UTC.
Form
Aalesund (all games): 0W 3D 5L across 8 Eliteserien fixtures this term — 0.38 PPG. Last five: D L D L L. They are averaging 1.25 goals per game and conceding 3.25 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 3.25 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 88% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Aalesund, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Aalesund's form when playing at home: 0W 1D 3L across 4 games at Color Line Stadion this term (0.25 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.25 goals scored and 3.75 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 100% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Stabaek's overall Eliteserien record this term: 3W 3D 2L from 8 games (1.50 PPG). Last five: L W L W D. Their scoring rate of 1.25 per game is modest, conceding 1.38 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets in 8 outings (38%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Stabaek, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Stabaek away from home this season: 1W 1D 1L from 3 away games — 1.33 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.67 goals scored and 2.33 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 100% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Stabaek are 1.12 PPG clear of Aalesund in recent Eliteserien fixtures (1.50 vs 0.38). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using home/away splits) — Aalesund register both teams scoring in 100% of relevant games, Stabaek in 100%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
Trading Data
Aalesund goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (8 games, 3 at home): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures; when winning at HT they fail to see it out 38% of the time; BTTS occurs in 88% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games; Over 3.5 in 75%.
Stabaek goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (8 games, 3 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures; they lead at the break 50% of the time; when winning at HT they fail to see it out 25% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Aalesund 88% and Stabaek 50% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Aalesund 75% | Stabaek 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Aalesund 1.36 xG and Stabaek 2.46 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Aalesund attack 0.889 / defence 1.783 | Stabaek attack 0.939 / defence 1.269. League average goals — home 1.209 / away 1.469. Stabaek bring a strong defensive rating of 1.269 — this is suppressing Aalesund's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 8 Aalesund games / 8 Stabaek games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Aalesund 20% | Draw 19% | Stabaek 61%. Fair-value odds: Aalesund 5.00 | Draw 5.26 | Stabaek 1.64. The model has a clear lean to Stabaek (61%) — a 41pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 73% | BTTS probability 68% | Total xG 3.82. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 73% — a total xG of 3.82 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 68% reflects that both xG figures (1.36 / 2.46) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Stabaek at 61% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 19% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 3.82 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 73% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 4.5 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 68% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Aalesund 100% | Stabaek 100% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Aalesund vs Stabaek | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 9 | Venue: Color Line Stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 19 Jul 2020, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Aalesund 20% | Draw 19% | Stabaek 61% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 73% | BTTS 68% | xG Aalesund 1.36 / Stabaek 2.46 • Poisson strength factors: Aalesund attack 0.889 / def 1.783 | Stabaek attack 0.939 / def 1.269 | league avg home 1.209 / away 1.469 • Poisson stance: Stabaek (61%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.36
Aalesund xG
Expected Goals
2.46
Stabaek xG
68%
BTTS
89%
Over 1.5
73%
Over 2.5
53%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Aalesund vs Stabaek kick off?
Aalesund vs Stabaek kicked off at 17:00 on Sunday 19 July 2020 at Color Line Stadion.
What was the final score in Aalesund vs Stabaek?
Aalesund 1 - 3 Stabaek.
Where is Aalesund vs Stabaek being played?
The match is being played at Color Line Stadion.
What competition is Aalesund vs Stabaek part of?
Aalesund vs Stabaek is a Regular Season - 9 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Aalesund vs Stabaek?
Our statistical model gives Aalesund a 20% chance of winning, Stabaek a 61% chance, and a 19% chance of a draw — making Stabaek the favourite.
Will both teams score in Aalesund vs Stabaek?
Our model estimates a 68% probability that both Aalesund and Stabaek will score (BTTS).
Will Aalesund vs Stabaek have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 73%.
What is the head-to-head record between Aalesund and Stabaek?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Aalesund and Stabaek in?
Aalesund (all comps): 0W-3D-5L in 8 | 0.38 PPG | GF 1.25 / GA 3.25 | L5 D-L-D-L-L. Stabaek (all comps): 3W-3D-2L in 8 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.25 / GA 1.38 | L5 L-W-L-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Aalesund's attack rating (0.89) and Stabaek's defence rating (1.27), the model arrives at 1.36 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Stabaek's attack (0.94x) against Aalesund's defence (1.78x) — and the away total comes out at 2.46.
These ratings are built from 8/8 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-2 emerges as the single most likely result, at 9.0%. Close behind: 1-1 (8.3%), 1-3 (7.4%). Together the top three scorelines make up 25% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Stabaek Win
20%
5.00
19%
5.40
61%
1.63
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 2
9.0%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 3
7.4%
Away win
1 – 1
7.3%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.36
Aalesund xG
Total xG
3.82
2.46
Stabaek xG
5.00
20%
Home win
5.40
19%
Draw
1.63
61%
Away win
Goals Markets
89%
Over 1.5
1.12
11%
Under 1.5
9.09
73%
Over 2.5
1.37
27%
Under 2.5
3.70
53%
Over 3.5
1.89
47%
Under 3.5
2.13
34%
Over 4.5
2.94
66%
Under 4.5
1.52
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
68%
BTTS Yes
1.47
32%
BTTS No
3.13
Clean Sheet
9%
11.68
26%
3.91
Win to Nil
2%
58.35
16%
6.36
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.2 | 5.4 | 6.6 | 5.4 | 3.3 | 1.6 |
| 1 | 3.0 | 7.3 | 9.0 | 7.4 | 4.5 | 2.2 |
| 2 | 2.0 | 5.0 | 6.1 | 5.0 | 3.1 | 1.5 |
| 3 | 0.9 | 2.3 | 2.8 | 2.3 | 1.4 | 0.7 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.8 | 1.0 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Aalesund vs Stabaek?
Our Poisson model rates 1-2 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.0%.
How many goals are Aalesund and Stabaek expected to score?
The model projects 1.36 expected goals for Aalesund and 2.46 for Stabaek, a combined total of 3.82.
How confident is the prediction model for Aalesund vs Stabaek?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 61%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Aalesund come into this having played 8 games, going 0W 3D 5L for 0.38 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-D-L-L. The sample for Aalesund is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Stabaek sit at 1.50 PPG from 8 outings (3W 3D 2L), a run that reads L-W-L-W-D across their last five. The sample for Stabaek is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Stabaek carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.12 PPG clear of Aalesund — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
Aalesund's home form reads 0W 1D 2L across 3 games on their own ground, a 0.33 PPG return.
Away from home, Stabaek have taken 1.33 points per game from 3 outings (1W 1D 1L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Stabaek come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Aalesund are averaging 1.25 goals scored and 3.25 conceded per game recently; Stabaek are on 1.25 scored and 1.38 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Aalesund have seen both teams score in 88% of their recent games.
Defensively: Stabaek in 38% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 8 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Aalesund
Blended
Stabaek
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Aalesund and Stabaek in coming into this match?
Aalesund have gone 0W 3D 5L in their last 8 games (0.38 PPG), while Stabaek have gone 3W 3D 2L in their last 8 (1.50 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Aalesund at home or Stabaek away?
Stabaek's away record (1.33 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Aalesund at home: 0.33 PPG; Stabaek away: 1.33 PPG.
Have Aalesund or Stabaek been keeping clean sheets recently?
Aalesund have kept a clean sheet in 0% of their recent games, Stabaek in 38%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 4 times that we have on record, stretching back to July 2020 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. It has been a while since the last meeting — 23 September 2023, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Stabaek won 4-0 on 18 Oct 2020, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Aalesund have gone 0W 1D 1L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Stabaek — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Aalesund
1
Draws
3
Stabaek
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Aalesund and Stabaek?
From 4 meetings on record, Aalesund have won 0, Stabaek have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Aalesund and Stabaek last play each other?
They last met on 23 September 2023, when Aalesund 1-1 Stabaek.
Who has won more matches between Aalesund and Stabaek?
Stabaek have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Aalesund are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Stabaek are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 100% for Aalesund, 100% for Stabaek — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 100% for Aalesund and 100% for Stabaek. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 100% and 67% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Aalesund home games / Stabaek away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Aalesund play Stabaek?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 100% of Aalesund's games and 100% of Stabaek's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Aalesund vs Stabaek usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 100% of Aalesund's matches and 100% of Stabaek's.
Do Aalesund and Stabaek tend to score early?
Aalesund have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Stabaek in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stabaek cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Aalesund.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Stabaek beat Aalesund 1-3 at Color Line Stadion, Regular Season - 9, in the Eliteserien. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Aalesund 1.36 xG and Stabaek 2.46 xG, a combined 3.82. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Aalesund attack 0.89 / defence 1.78 against Stabaek attack 0.94 / defence 1.27, drawn from 8/8 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Aalesund 20% | Draw 19% | Stabaek 61%, with Stabaek to win its most likely call at 61%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 73%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 89% and landed. Over 3.5 was 53% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 68% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Aalesund 75%, Stabaek 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 69%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Aalesund's trading profile (8 games, 3 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 88% of their matches — today it did.
Stabaek's trading profile (8 games, 3 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Stabaek arrived the stronger side — 1.50 PPG against 0.38. Form held, and they took the win. Stabaek (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.67 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 2.33 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.