Aalesund 1-3 Mjondalen – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Mjondalen at 42% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Aalesund vs Mjondalen encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Eliteserien encounter, Regular Season - 5 sees Mjondalen travel to Color Line Stadion to take on Aalesund. The game is scheduled for Wednesday 1 July 2020, 17:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Aalesund — All Games: 0W 2D 2L from 4 Eliteserien outings this season, averaging 0.50 points per game. Last five: L L D D. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 3.50 conceded. However, 3.50 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 100% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. Aalesund have played only a handful of Eliteserien games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Mjondalen stand at 1W 2D 1L from 4 Eliteserien matches — 1.25 PPG. Last five: D W D L. Their scoring rate of 0.75 per game is modest, conceding 0.75 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 4 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Mjondalen have played only a handful of Eliteserien games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Mjondalen are 0.75 PPG ahead (1.25 vs 0.50), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
In-Play Data
Aalesund trading profile (4 games): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures; they lead at the break 50% of the time; when winning at HT they fail to see it out 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 100% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games; Over 3.5 in 75%.
Mjondalen trading profile (4 games): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Aalesund 100% and Mjondalen 50% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Aalesund 75% | Mjondalen 25%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Aalesund 1.20 xG and Mjondalen 1.44 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Aalesund attack 0.937 / defence 1.401 | Mjondalen attack 0.639 / defence 0.920. League average goals — home 1.397 / away 1.606. Data: 4 Aalesund games / 4 Mjondalen games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Aalesund 32% | Draw 26% | Mjondalen 42%. Fair-value odds: Aalesund 3.12 | Draw 3.85 | Mjondalen 2.38. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.64. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.64 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Mjondalen are the pick at 42% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Mjondalen offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.64 combined xG gives a 49% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though form averaging only 3.2 goals per game points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 53% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Aalesund 100% | Mjondalen 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Aalesund vs Mjondalen | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 5 | Venue: Color Line Stadion • Kick-off: Wednesday 1 Jul 2020, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Aalesund 32% | Draw 26% | Mjondalen 42% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% | BTTS 53% | xG Aalesund 1.20 / Mjondalen 1.44 • Poisson strength factors: Aalesund attack 0.937 / def 1.401 | Mjondalen attack 0.639 / def 0.920 | league avg home 1.397 / away 1.606 • Poisson stance: Mjondalen (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.20
Aalesund xG
Expected Goals
1.44
Mjondalen xG
53%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Aalesund vs Mjondalen kick off?
Aalesund vs Mjondalen kicked off at 17:00 on Wednesday 1 July 2020 at Color Line Stadion.
What was the final score in Aalesund vs Mjondalen?
Aalesund 1 - 3 Mjondalen.
Where is Aalesund vs Mjondalen being played?
The match is being played at Color Line Stadion.
What competition is Aalesund vs Mjondalen part of?
Aalesund vs Mjondalen is a Regular Season - 5 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Aalesund vs Mjondalen?
Our statistical model gives Aalesund a 32% chance of winning, Mjondalen a 42% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Mjondalen the favourite.
Will both teams score in Aalesund vs Mjondalen?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Aalesund and Mjondalen will score (BTTS).
Will Aalesund vs Mjondalen have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%.
What is the head-to-head record between Aalesund and Mjondalen?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Aalesund and Mjondalen in?
Aalesund (all comps): 0W-2D-2L in 4 | 0.50 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 3.50 | L5 L-L-D-D. Mjondalen (all comps): 1W-2D-1L in 4 | 1.25 PPG | GF 0.75 / GA 0.75 | L5 D-W-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Aalesund's attack rating (0.94) and Mjondalen's defence rating (0.92), the model arrives at 1.20 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Mjondalen's attack versus Aalesund's defence, projects 1.44 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 4/4 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.9%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.9%), 0-0 (8.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Mjondalen Win
32%
3.17
26%
3.86
42%
2.35
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.3%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.3%
Away win
1 – 2
8.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.20
Aalesund xG
Total xG
2.64
1.44
Mjondalen xG
3.17
32%
Home win
3.86
26%
Draw
2.35
42%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.87
47%
BTTS No
2.15
Clean Sheet
24%
4.21
30%
3.33
Win to Nil
7%
13.34
13%
7.84
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.1 | 10.3 | 7.4 | 3.5 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 8.6 | 12.3 | 8.9 | 4.3 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.2 | 7.4 | 5.3 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.1 | 3.0 | 2.1 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Aalesund vs Mjondalen?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.9%.
How many goals are Aalesund and Mjondalen expected to score?
The model projects 1.20 expected goals for Aalesund and 1.44 for Mjondalen, a combined total of 2.64.
How confident is the prediction model for Aalesund vs Mjondalen?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Aalesund come into this having played 4 games, going 0W 2D 2L for 0.50 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-D-D. It's still early in the season for Aalesund, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Mjondalen sit at 1.25 PPG from 4 outings (1W 2D 1L), a run that reads D-W-D-L across their last five. It's still early in the season for Mjondalen, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Mjondalen carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.75 PPG clear of Aalesund — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Goals in Recent Form
Aalesund are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 3.50 conceded per game recently; Mjondalen are on 0.75 scored and 0.75 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Aalesund have seen both teams score in 100% of their recent games.
Defensively: Mjondalen in 50% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 4 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Aalesund
Early Season
Mjondalen
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Aalesund and Mjondalen in coming into this match?
Aalesund have gone 0W 2D 2L in their last 4 games (0.50 PPG), while Mjondalen have gone 1W 2D 1L in their last 4 (1.25 PPG).
Have Aalesund or Mjondalen been keeping clean sheets recently?
Aalesund have kept a clean sheet in 0% of their recent games, Mjondalen in 50%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
2 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to July 2020. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. It has been a while since the last meeting — 22 December 2020, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Aalesund
0
Draws
2
Mjondalen
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Aalesund and Mjondalen?
From 2 meetings on record, Aalesund have won 0, Mjondalen have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Aalesund and Mjondalen last play each other?
They last met on 22 December 2020, when Mjondalen 3-0 Aalesund.
Who has won more matches between Aalesund and Mjondalen?
Mjondalen have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Aalesund are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 50% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Mjondalen see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Aalesund at 100%, Mjondalen at 50%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 75% (Aalesund) and 25% (Mjondalen).
On the defensive side: Mjondalen in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Aalesund home games / Mjondalen away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Aalesund play Mjondalen?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 100% of Aalesund's games and 50% of Mjondalen's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Aalesund vs Mjondalen usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 75% of Aalesund's recent games and 25% of Mjondalen's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Aalesund and Mjondalen tend to score early?
Aalesund have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Mjondalen in 50% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Mjondalen cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Aalesund.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Mjondalen beat Aalesund 1-3 at Color Line Stadion, Regular Season - 5, in the Eliteserien. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Aalesund 1.20 xG and Mjondalen 1.44 xG, a combined 2.64. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Mjondalen outscored their 1.44 projection by 1.6. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Aalesund attack 0.94 / defence 1.40 against Mjondalen attack 0.64 / defence 0.92, drawn from 4/4 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Aalesund 32% | Draw 26% | Mjondalen 42%, with Mjondalen to win its most likely call at 42%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. Over 3.5 was 27% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Aalesund 75%, Mjondalen 25%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 75%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Aalesund's trading profile (4 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 100% of their matches — today it did.
Mjondalen's trading profile (4 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Mjondalen arrived the stronger side — 1.25 PPG against 0.50. Form held, and they took the win. Mjondalen scored 3 against a 0.75 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.