Willem II 1-2 PEC Zwolle – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates PEC Zwolle at 46% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Willem II vs PEC Zwolle encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Koning Willem II Stadion plays host to Willem II versus PEC Zwolle in Eredivisie, Regular Season - 33. Kick-off: Wednesday 14 May 2025 at 19:00 UTC.
Current Form
Willem II's overall Eredivisie record this term: 0W 1D 9L from 10 games (0.10 PPG). Last five: L L L D L. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 2.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.20 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Willem II's home record at Koning Willem II Stadion: 1W 2D 7L from 10 Eredivisie appearances (0.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
PEC Zwolle have collected 1.10 PPG across 10 Eredivisie outings this season: 2W 5D 3L. Last five: D D L W D. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
On the road, PEC Zwolle have gone 2W 4D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
On a straight form reading, PEC Zwolle are the stronger side — 1.00 PPG clear of the hosts (1.10 vs 0.10). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Willem II have seen both teams score in 80% of their games, PEC Zwolle in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 5 meetings: Willem II 2W, PEC Zwolle 2W, 1D.
The 5 previous meetings have averaged 2.6 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 13 Dec 2024, ended 1–0 with Willem II winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Willem II — key trading statistics (66 games, 33 at home): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 93% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games).
PEC Zwolle — key trading statistics (66 games, 33 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 96% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 68% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 39%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Willem II 59% and PEC Zwolle 62% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Willem II 48% | PEC Zwolle 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Willem II 1.43 xG and PEC Zwolle 1.83 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Willem II attack 0.729 / defence 1.355 | PEC Zwolle attack 1.009 / defence 1.221. League average goals — home 1.603 / away 1.342. Willem II's attack strength of 0.729 is below the league average — the 1.43 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. PEC Zwolle bring a strong defensive rating of 1.221 — this is suppressing Willem II's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 32 Willem II games / 66 PEC Zwolle games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Willem II 29% | Draw 25% | PEC Zwolle 46%. Fair-value odds: Willem II 3.45 | Draw 4.00 | PEC Zwolle 2.17. PEC Zwolle hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 63% | BTTS probability 65% | Total xG 3.26. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 63% — the 3.26 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 65% reflects that both xG figures (1.43 / 1.83) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, PEC Zwolle are the pick at 46% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on PEC Zwolle if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.26 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 63% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 65% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Willem II 80% | PEC Zwolle 60% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Willem II vs PEC Zwolle | Competition: Eredivisie, Regular Season - 33 | Venue: Koning Willem II Stadion • Kick-off: Wednesday 14 May 2025, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Willem II 29% | Draw 25% | PEC Zwolle 46% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 63% | BTTS 65% | xG Willem II 1.43 / PEC Zwolle 1.83 • Poisson strength factors: Willem II attack 0.729 / def 1.355 | PEC Zwolle attack 1.009 / def 1.221 | league avg home 1.603 / away 1.342 • Poisson stance: PEC Zwolle (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.43
Willem II xG
Expected Goals
1.83
PEC Zwolle xG
65%
BTTS
85%
Over 1.5
63%
Over 2.5
41%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Willem II vs PEC Zwolle kick off?
Willem II vs PEC Zwolle kicked off at 19:00 on Wednesday 14 May 2025 at Koning Willem II Stadion.
What was the final score in Willem II vs PEC Zwolle?
Willem II 1 - 2 PEC Zwolle.
Where is Willem II vs PEC Zwolle being played?
The match is being played at Koning Willem II Stadion.
What competition is Willem II vs PEC Zwolle part of?
Willem II vs PEC Zwolle is a Regular Season - 33 fixture in the Eredivisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Willem II vs PEC Zwolle?
Our statistical model gives Willem II a 29% chance of winning, PEC Zwolle a 46% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making PEC Zwolle the favourite.
Will both teams score in Willem II vs PEC Zwolle?
Our model estimates a 65% probability that both Willem II and PEC Zwolle will score (BTTS).
Will Willem II vs PEC Zwolle have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 63%.
What is the head-to-head record between Willem II and PEC Zwolle?
Record (5 meetings): Willem II 2W | Draws 1 | PEC Zwolle 2W.
What form are Willem II and PEC Zwolle in?
Willem II (all comps): 0W-1D-9L in 10 | 0.10 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 2.20 | L5 L-L-L-D-L. PEC Zwolle (all comps): 2W-5D-3L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.60 | L5 D-D-L-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Willem II's attack rating (0.73) and PEC Zwolle's defence rating (1.22), the model arrives at 1.43 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — PEC Zwolle's attack (1.01x) against Willem II's defence (1.35x) — and the away total comes out at 1.83.
These ratings are built from 32/66 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.3%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.2%), 2-1 (7.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
PEC Zwolle Win
29%
3.44
25%
4.05
46%
2.16
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.0%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.2%
Away win
2 – 1
7.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.43
Willem II xG
Total xG
3.26
1.83
PEC Zwolle xG
3.44
29%
Home win
4.05
25%
Draw
2.16
46%
Away win
Goals Markets
84%
Over 1.5
1.19
16%
Under 1.5
6.25
63%
Over 2.5
1.59
37%
Under 2.5
2.70
41%
Over 3.5
2.44
59%
Under 3.5
1.69
23%
Over 4.5
4.35
77%
Under 4.5
1.30
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
65%
BTTS Yes
1.54
35%
BTTS No
2.84
Clean Sheet
16%
6.26
24%
4.17
Win to Nil
5%
21.52
11%
9.01
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.8 | 7.0 | 6.4 | 3.9 | 1.8 | 0.7 |
| 1 | 5.5 | 10.0 | 9.2 | 5.6 | 2.6 | 0.9 |
| 2 | 3.9 | 7.2 | 6.6 | 4.0 | 1.8 | 0.7 |
| 3 | 1.9 | 3.4 | 3.1 | 1.9 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 1.2 | 1.1 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Willem II vs PEC Zwolle?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.3%.
How many goals are Willem II and PEC Zwolle expected to score?
The model projects 1.43 expected goals for Willem II and 1.83 for PEC Zwolle, a combined total of 3.26.
How confident is the prediction model for Willem II vs PEC Zwolle?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Willem II come into this having played 66 games, going 28W 15D 23L for 1.50 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-L-D-L.
On the other side, PEC Zwolle sit at 1.08 PPG from 66 outings (17W 20D 29L), a run that reads D-D-L-W-D across their last five.
Willem II carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.42 PPG clear of PEC Zwolle — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
Willem II's home form reads 16W 6D 11L across 33 games on their own ground, a 1.64 PPG return.
Away from home, PEC Zwolle have taken 0.94 points per game from 33 outings (6W 13D 14L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Willem II come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Willem II are averaging 1.59 goals scored and 1.26 conceded per game recently; PEC Zwolle are on 1.27 scored and 1.77 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: PEC Zwolle in 62%.
Last 66 Results — Eredivisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Willem II
Current Season
PEC Zwolle
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Willem II and PEC Zwolle in coming into this match?
Willem II have gone 28W 15D 23L in their last 66 games (1.50 PPG), while PEC Zwolle have gone 17W 20D 29L in their last 66 (1.08 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Willem II at home or PEC Zwolle away?
Willem II's home record (1.64 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Willem II at home: 1.64 PPG; PEC Zwolle away: 0.94 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 6 times that we have on record, stretching back to August 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Eredivisie, Eerste Divisie all feature in the head-to-head log. It has been a while since the last meeting — 14 May 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Willem II have gone 1W 0D 2L from 3 meetings on their own ground against PEC Zwolle — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Willem II
1
Draws
3
PEC Zwolle
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Willem II and PEC Zwolle?
From 6 meetings on record, Willem II have won 2, PEC Zwolle have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Willem II and PEC Zwolle last play each other?
They last met on 14 May 2025, when Willem II 1-2 PEC Zwolle.
Who has won more matches between Willem II and PEC Zwolle?
PEC Zwolle have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Willem II are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
PEC Zwolle are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 67% for Willem II, 64% for PEC Zwolle — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 67% for Willem II and 58% for PEC Zwolle. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 30% and 52% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: PEC Zwolle in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Willem II home games / PEC Zwolle away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Willem II play PEC Zwolle?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of Willem II's games and 64% of PEC Zwolle's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Willem II vs PEC Zwolle usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of Willem II's matches and 58% of PEC Zwolle's.
Do Willem II and PEC Zwolle tend to score early?
Willem II have had a goal before half-time in 79% of their recent matches, PEC Zwolle in 70% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as PEC Zwolle edge out Willem II 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
PEC Zwolle beat Willem II 1-2 at Koning Willem II Stadion, Regular Season - 33, in the Eredivisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Willem II 1.43 xG and PEC Zwolle 1.83 xG, a combined 3.26. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Willem II attack 0.73 / defence 1.35 against PEC Zwolle attack 1.01 / defence 1.22, drawn from 32/66 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Willem II 29% | Draw 25% | PEC Zwolle 46%, with PEC Zwolle to win its most likely call at 46%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 63%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 85% and landed. Over 3.5 was 41% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 65% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Willem II 48%, PEC Zwolle 54%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Willem II's trading profile (66 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.
PEC Zwolle's trading profile (66 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Willem II arrived the stronger side — 1.50 PPG against 1.08. Form was overturned, with PEC Zwolle winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Willem II (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.85 scoring average — below par going forward. PEC Zwolle (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.